Wednesday, 16 January 2002
Land surface forcing as an element in seasonal ensemble prediction
The application of a "surface ensemble" technique which utilizes variation of spinup time for certain poorly observed surface variables will be discussed. Results of using surface ensembles with a regional spectral model will be analyzed with regard to seasonal/monthly numerical forecasting. Focus will be both on the potential value for improvement of seasonal forecasts/simulations and on the use of the surface ensemble approach in sensitivity studies.
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