2002 Annual

Joint Poster Session 1: Ensemble Forecasting and Other Topics in Probability and Statistics (Joint with the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and the Symposium onObservations, Data Assimilation,and Probabilistic Prediction)

Wednesday, 16 January 2002: 1:30 PM-3:00 PM
Organizer:  Dan Wilks, Cornell Univ.
The advantages of using polygons for the verification of NWS warnings
Peter A. Browning, NOAA/NWSFO, Pleasant Hill, MO; and M. Mitchell

Poster PDF (85.4 kB)
10 Years of Daily Forecast Verification
Dan G. Bellue, NOAA/NWS, Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX

Poster PDF (109.7 kB)
Evaluation of seasonal climate outlooks for the United States
Gloria Forthun, Southeast Regional Climate Center, Columbia, SC; and S. Meyer

Poster PDF (18.8 kB)
Validation of NSIPP Tier-2 Seasonal Forecasts: what can we gain from improved SST forecasts?
Philip J. Pegion, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert and M. J. Suarez

Poster PDF (209.6 kB)
Automated, supervised synoptic map-pattern classification using recursive partitioning trees
Alex J. Cannon, MSC, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and P. H. Whitfield and E. R. Lord

Poster PDF (191.3 kB)
data mining patterns in local heavy precipitation events
George A. Fenton, LANL, Los Alamos, NM

A Comparison Between Neural Network and Linear Regression Approaches to a Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Problem
Yerong Feng, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou, China; and D. Kitzmiller

Retrospective Time Integration Scheme in Mesoscale Numerical Model
Xiao-Jing Jia, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

A New Year-round Multivariable Comfort Index
Ken Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and M. Steinberg

Influence of environmental and model uncertainty on Lagrangian flow structures
Leonid Kuznetsov, Brown University, Providence, RI; and C. K. R. T. Jones, M. Toner, and A. D. Kirwan Jr.

Impact of improved initialization of mesoscale features on QPF skill in both 10km deterministic and ensemble forecasts
William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal and I. Jankov

Land surface forcing as an element in seasonal ensemble prediction
Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS

Use of adjoint-derived sensitivities in constructing an ensemble of forecasts
Daryl T. Kleist, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan and G. A. Postel


Poster PDF (525.8 kB)
Simplified Short Term Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts: Application
Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and L. Wu, H. Herr, E. Welles, J. C. Schaake, J. Ostrowski, and N. Pryor


Poster PDF (234.0 kB)
Short Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) During IPEX
James A. Nelson Jr., NOAA/NWSFO, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

A Comparison of Ensemble Based Data Assimilation Schemes
Brian J. Etherton, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop

Dynamic selection from among an ensemble of lateral boundary conditions for limited-area models

Early warnings of severe weather from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
Kenneth R. Mylne, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and T. P. Legg

Poster PDF (118.5 kB)
Estimation of uncertainties in atmospheric data assimilation using singular vectors
Hyun Mee Kim, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan

Poster PDF (171.6 kB)
Comparing approaches to develop short term ensemble precipitation products for hydrologic forecasting
John C. Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Mullusky, S. Perica, and E. Welles

Ensemble forecast bias and variance error correction
Richard Wobus, SAIC/GSC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and Y. Zhu

Some methods of combining multi-model ensemble forecasts
Simon J. Mason, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA

Effective Use of Regional Ensemble Data in Forecasting
Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. Hart

Poster PDF (182.0 kB)