Session: Ensemble Forecasting and Other Topics in Probability and Statistics (Joint with the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and the Symposium onObservations, Data Assimilation,and Probabilistic Prediction) (2002 Annual)

JP1.1

The advantages of using polygons for the verification of NWS warnings

Peter A. Browning, NOAA/NWSFO, Pleasant Hill, MO; and M. Mitchell

Poster PDF (85.4 kB)

JP1.2

10 Years of Daily Forecast Verification

Dan G. Bellue, NOAA/NWS, Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX

Poster PDF (109.7 kB)

JP1.3

Evaluation of seasonal climate outlooks for the United States

Gloria Forthun, Southeast Regional Climate Center, Columbia, SC; and S. Meyer

Poster PDF (18.8 kB)

JP1.4

Validation of NSIPP Tier-2 Seasonal Forecasts: what can we gain from improved SST forecasts?

Philip J. Pegion, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert and M. J. Suarez

Poster PDF (209.6 kB)

JP1.5

Using skill scores to assist assessment of the "Man-MOS-Met Mix" in probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasting

Preston W. Leftwich Jr., NOAA/NWS, Kansas City, MO

Poster PDF (394.5 kB)

JP1.6

Principal component analysis of month-to-month precipitation variability for NCDC California climatic divisions,(1895–6 through 2000–1 seasons)

Charles J. Fisk, U.S. Navy, Point Mugu, CA

Poster PDF (1.0 MB)

JP1.7

Automated, supervised synoptic map-pattern classification using recursive partitioning trees

Alex J. Cannon, MSC, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and P. H. Whitfield and E. R. Lord

Poster PDF (191.3 kB)

JP1.8

Summary statistics of precipitation and its anomalies for regions of Virginia from 1900 through 1999

T. Dale Bess, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA

Poster PDF (54.2 kB)

JP1.9

data mining patterns in local heavy precipitation events

George A. Fenton, LANL, Los Alamos, NM

JP1.10

A Comparison Between Neural Network and Linear Regression Approaches to a Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Problem

Yerong Feng, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou, China; and D. Kitzmiller

JP1.11

Annual course of successive 30-days' overall, above normal, and below normal temperature persistence at one-day intervals for four U.S. stations with lengthy histories

Charles J. Fisk, U.S. Navy, Point Mugu, CA

Poster PDF (2.2 MB)

JP1.12

Retrospective Time Integration Scheme in Mesoscale Numerical Model

Xiao-Jing Jia, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

JP1.13

A New Year-round Multivariable Comfort Index

Ken Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and M. Steinberg

JP1.14

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF THE NUMBER OF ASTHMA ATTACKS ON THE TERRITORY OF THE CITY OF BITOLA-MACEDONIA

Blagojce Mickovski, NOAA/NWS, Bitola, Macedonia; and Z. Nakeski

JP1.15

Influence of environmental and model uncertainty on Lagrangian flow structures

Leonid Kuznetsov, Brown University, Providence, RI; and C. K. R. T. Jones, M. Toner, and A. D. Kirwan Jr.

JP1.16

Impact of improved initialization of mesoscale features on QPF skill in both 10km deterministic and ensemble forecasts

William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal and I. Jankov

JP1.17

Land surface forcing as an element in seasonal ensemble prediction

Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS

JP1.18

Use of adjoint-derived sensitivities in constructing an ensemble of forecasts

Daryl T. Kleist, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan and G. A. Postel

http://helios.aos.wisc.edu

Poster PDF (525.8 kB)

JP1.19

Simplified Short Term Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts: Application

Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and L. Wu, H. Herr, E. Welles, J. C. Schaake, J. Ostrowski, and N. Pryor

http://marfchp1.met.psu.edu/AHPS/juniata_river.htm

Poster PDF (234.0 kB)

JP1.20

Short Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) During IPEX

James A. Nelson Jr., NOAA/NWSFO, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

JP1.21

A Comparison of Ensemble Based Data Assimilation Schemes

Brian J. Etherton, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop

JP1.22

Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based on the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasts

Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth

JP1.23

Dynamic selection from among an ensemble of lateral boundary conditions for limited-area models

JP1.24

Early warnings of severe weather from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

Kenneth R. Mylne, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and T. P. Legg

Poster PDF (118.5 kB)

JP1.25

Estimation of uncertainties in atmospheric data assimilation using singular vectors

Hyun Mee Kim, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan

Poster PDF (171.6 kB)

JP1.26

Comparing approaches to develop short term ensemble precipitation products for hydrologic forecasting

John C. Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Mullusky, S. Perica, and E. Welles

JP1.27

Ensemble forecast bias and variance error correction

Richard Wobus, SAIC/GSC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and Y. Zhu

JP1.28

Some methods of combining multi-model ensemble forecasts

Simon J. Mason, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA

JP1.29

Effective Use of Regional Ensemble Data in Forecasting

Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. Hart

Poster PDF (182.0 kB)

JP1.30

Linear and Nonlinear Perspectives of Forecast Error Estimate Using the First Passage Time (Formerly Paper 5.6 in the Observations Program)

Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA; and L. M. Ivanov

Joint Poster Session 1: Ensemble Forecasting and Other Topics in Probability and Statistics (Joint with the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and the Symposium onObservations, Data Assimilation,and Probabilistic Prediction)