2002 Annual

Wednesday, 16 January 2002
Simplified Short Term Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts: Application
Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and L. Wu, H. Herr, E. Welles, J. C. Schaake, J. Ostrowski, and N. Pryor
Poster PDF (234.0 kB)
A new method for assessing the uncertainty of precipitation forecasts was described in "Simplified Short Term Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts: Method". This method was tested in collaboration with the forecasters at the Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC) to generate precipitation ensembles within the confines of an operational forecast system. Parameters for the method were computed for two basins, the Raritan in New Jersey and the Juniata in Pennsylvania. Deterministic forecasts for Hurricane Floyd (September 16, 1999) were used with the new method to generate short term precipitation ensembles that were then compared to the observed precipitation. The existing Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) technique within the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) was used to generate streamflow ensembles from the precipitation ensembles. A complete description of the parameter estimation and the precipitation and streamflow ensemble results will be presented.

Supplementary URL: http://marfchp1.met.psu.edu/AHPS/juniata_river.htm