Wednesday, 16 January 2002
Comparing approaches to develop short term ensemble precipitation products for hydrologic forecasting
The attributes of ensemble precipitation products derived from global ensemble weather forecasts for periods up to 5 days are compared to short term ensemble precipitation products derived from Bayesian statistical analysis of existing operational deterministic precipitation forecasts. Advantages and limitations of the global ensemble approach relative to the simple statistical approach are considered. Some suggestions are offered on how an improved short term ensemble precipitation process might be developed that would include a role for human forecasters to add value to the results.