2002 Annual

Thursday, 17 January 2002: 3:00 PM
Analyzing the relationship between solar flux and hurricane strength to forecast hurricane development
Alfred M. Powell Jr., Autometric Inc, A Boeing Company, Springfield, VA; and P. A. Zuzolo, B. J. Zuzolo, and G. N. Greene
This paper investigates the relationship between the monthly solar flux cycle (28 day solar rotation) and hurricane intensity. The intent of this investigation was to determine whether a relationship exists between hurricane intensity, defined as the daily observed minimum central pressure, and the F10.7 centimeter (2800 MHz) solar flux. The solar flux was compared against the life cycle (observed minimum central pressure in KPa) of several hurricane events. The results of this analytical investigation are discussed.

The investigation focused on the storm's life cycle development as reflected in the daily minimum observed central pressure for each storm. These preliminary results discuss (1) whether a relationship between the hurricane intensity and solar flux may exist, (2) the nature of this relationship, and (3) the potential for predictive uses. The results include plots of hurricane minimum central pressure and the F10.7 cm flux data to address the influence of solar flux on storm intensity. A brief discussion of the potential dynamic coupling between these two parameters provides the basis for the study. The theoretical basis was formulated using a solar-terrestrial mechanism hypothesis developed for synoptic scale systems.

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