2002 Annual

Session 3: weather forecasting

Thursday, 17 January 2002: 8:30 AM-3:30 PM
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Organizer:  Harry R. Glahn, NOAA/NWS
Papers:
  8:30 AM
3.1
The new NWS MOS development and implementation systems
Harry R. Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. P. Dallavalle

  8:45 AM
3.2
The new AVN/MRF MOS development and model changes: a volatile mix?
Mary C. Erickson, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. P. Dallavalle and K. L. Carroll

Poster PDF (169.1 kB)
  9:00 AM
3.3
Progress in the development of the Canadian updateable model output statistics (UMOS) system
Laurence J. Wilson, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and M. Vallée

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)
  9:15 AM
3.4
TAFTOOLS: Development of objective TAF guidance for Canada—Part One: Introduction and development of the very short-range module
Pierre Bourgouin, Canadian Meteorological Centre, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and J. Montpetit, R. Verret, and L. J. Wilson

Poster PDF (55.7 kB)
  9:30 AM
3.5
TAFTOOLS: Development of objective TAF guidance for Canada Part two—Development of the short-range forecast module and results
Jacques Montpetit, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and P. Bourgouin, L. J. Wilson, and R. Verret

Poster PDF (436.5 kB)
  9:45 AM
3.6
Ensemble, dynamic MOS
Peter P. Neilley, Weather Services International, Inc., Billerica, MA; and W. Myers and G. S. Young

Poster PDF (85.7 kB)
  10:00 AM
3.7
Combining forecasts for superior prediction
Gregory S. Young, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (205.0 kB)
  10:15 AM
3.8
Looking far back vs. looking around enough: operational weather forecasting by spatial composition of recent observations
Claudia Tebaldi, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (212.0 kB)
  10:30 AM
3.9
Surface wind gust statistics at the Savannah River Site
Allen H. Weber, Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC; and M. J. Parker and J. H. Weber

  10:45 AM
3.10
Probabilistic early warning of cloud-to-ground lightning at an airport
Martin J. Murphy, Global Atmospherics, Inc., Tucson, AZ; and N. W. S. Demetriades and K. L. Cummins

  11:00 AM
3.11
Statistical models for lightning prediction using Canadian Lightning Detection Network observations
William R. Burrows, AES, Downsview, ON, Canada

Poster PDF (81.6 kB)
  11:15 AM
3.12
The value of cloud lightning in probabilistic thunderstorm warning
Martin J. Murphy, Global Atmospherics, Inc., Tucson, AZ; and N. W. S. Demetriades and K. L. Cummins

  11:30 AM
3.13
Probabilistic Forecasts of Precipitation Type
John V. Cortinas Jr., University of Oklahoma/CIMMS, Norman, OK; and K. F. Brill and M. E. Baldwin

Poster PDF (55.1 kB)
  11:45 AM
3.14
Topographic and synoptic influences on cold season severe weather events in California
Ivory J. Small, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA; and G. Martin, S. LaDochy, and J. N. Brown

Poster PDF (2.6 MB)
  12:00 PM
3.15
The application of synoptic stratification to the statistical forecasting of rainfall and surface wind
Gregory J. Connor, Bureau of Meteorology, Townsville, Queensland, Australia

Poster PDF (39.5 kB)
  12:15 PM
3.16
An Empirically Developed Forecast Model for the Surface Layer Stability Transition Period
Gail-Tirrell Vaucher, Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM

Poster PDF (71.3 kB)
  12:30 PM
3.17
Using Current-Generation Meteorological/Photochemical Modeling Systems for Real-Time Ozone Forecasting
Christian Hogrefe, SUNY, Albany, NY; and S. T. Rao and K. L. Demerjian

Poster PDF (264.2 kB)
  12:45 PM
3.18
A study of predictive models for forecasting hurricane activity over the Gulf of Mexico
R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and A. Pingili and R. L. Miller

  1:00 PM
3.19
Analyzing the relationship between solar flux and hurricane strength to forecast hurricane development
Alfred M. Powell Jr., Autometric Inc, A Boeing Company, Springfield, VA; and P. A. Zuzolo, B. J. Zuzolo, and G. N. Greene

  1:15 PM
3.6a
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

  1:45 PM
3.12a
Lunch Break

  3:15 PM
3.19a
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

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