Thursday, 17 January 2002: 2:45 PM
A study of predictive models for forecasting hurricane activity over the Gulf of Mexico
Predictive models including a) regression model and b) Hurricane Predictive Index (HPI) were developed for predicting the origin and evolution of hurricanes over the Gulf of Mexico. These models describe the air-sea interactions and associated tropical cyclone /hurricane activity using GOES satellite images and data from buoys for sea surface temperatures and meteorological variables in the Gulf of Mexico. These models were tested for 1995 (hurricane Opal) and 2000 (hurricane Gordon) which formed and developed in the Gulf of Mexico. The models simulated and predicted the air-sea interactions and associated tropical cyclone/hurricane activity. These models will be used for predicting 2001 hurricane activity.