2002 Annual

Joint Session 1: Ensemble Forecasting and Predictability: Continued (Joint with the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics)

Tuesday, 15 January 2002: 2:00 PM-5:14 PM
Organizer:  Brian Farrell, Harvard Univ.
  2:00 PM
Sequential Estimation of Regime Transitions (Invited Presentation)
Michael Ghil, University of California, Los Angeles, CA

  2:15 PM
Limited Area Predictability: What Skill additional to that of the Global Model can be achieved, and for how long?
Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Brill, H. Chuang, G. DiMego, and E. Rogers

Uncertainty in meso-scale meteorological model output and its relation to ensemble forecast

  2:30 PM
Synoptic interpretation of adjoint-derived forecast sensitivities
Daryl T. Kleist, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan


Poster PDF (1.1 MB)
  2:45 PM
Simplified Short Term Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts: Theory
Hank Herr, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and E. Welles, M. Mullusky, L. Wu, and J. Schaake

Poster PDF (700.2 kB)
  3:00 PM
How Well Can Ensemble Perturbations Explain Forecast Errors?
Mozheng Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth

Poster PDF (808.5 kB)
  3:15 PM
Evaluation of a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System over the Pacific Northwest
Eric Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

  3:45 PM
Historical Seasonal Forecasts with a Simple GCM
Hai Lin, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and J. Derome and G. Brunet

Poster PDF (254.4 kB)
  4:00 PM
Stochastic forecast models for nonlinear deterministic systems
Leonard A. Smith, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London, United Kingdom; and K. Judd

  4:15 PM
The value of perfection
James A. Hansen, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and L. A. Smith, J. von Hardenberg, and C. E. Forest

  4:30 PM
The Kalman-Lvy filtering: Sequential assimilation methodology for power law and Lvy law noises
Kayo Ide, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and D. Sornette

Poster PDF (304.8 kB)
  4:45 PM
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall