Session: Ensemble Forecasting and Predictability: Continued (Joint with the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics) (2002 Annual)

Tuesday, 15 January 2002: 2:00 PM-5:14 PM

Organizer: Brian Farrell, Harvard Univ.

Papers:

2:00 PM

J1.13

Sequential Estimation of Regime Transitions (Invited Presentation)

Michael Ghil, University of California, Los Angeles, CA

2:15 PM

J1.14

Limited Area Predictability: What Skill additional to that of the Global Model can be achieved, and for how long?

Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Brill, H. Chuang, G. DiMego, and E. Rogers

J1.15

Uncertainty in meso-scale meteorological model output and its relation to ensemble forecast

2:30 PM

J1.16

Synoptic interpretation of adjoint-derived forecast sensitivities

Daryl T. Kleist, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan

http://helios.aos.wisc.edu

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

2:45 PM

J1.17

Simplified Short Term Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts: Theory

Hank Herr, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and E. Welles, M. Mullusky, L. Wu, and J. Schaake

Poster PDF (700.2 kB)

3:00 PM

J1.18

How Well Can Ensemble Perturbations Explain Forecast Errors?

Mozheng Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth

Poster PDF (808.5 kB)

3:15 PM

J1.19

Evaluation of a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System over the Pacific Northwest

Eric Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

3:30 PM

J1.20

Ensemble canonical correlation prediction of seasonal precipitation over the United States: raising the bar for dynamical model forecasts

William K. M. Lau, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and K. M. Kim and S. S. P. Shen

3:45 PM

J1.21

Historical Seasonal Forecasts with a Simple GCM

Hai Lin, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and J. Derome and G. Brunet

Poster PDF (254.4 kB)

4:00 PM

J1.22

Stochastic forecast models for nonlinear deterministic systems

Leonard A. Smith, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London, United Kingdom; and K. Judd

4:15 PM

J1.23

The value of perfection

James A. Hansen, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and L. A. Smith, J. von Hardenberg, and C. E. Forest

4:30 PM

J1.24

The Kalman-LÉvy filtering: Sequential assimilation methodology for power law and LÉvy law noises

Kayo Ide, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and D. Sornette

Poster PDF (304.8 kB)

4:45 PM

J1.19A

Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

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Joint Session 1: Ensemble Forecasting and Predictability: Continued (Joint with the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics)