2002 Annual

9: Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction

Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction

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Saturday, 12 January 2002

Saturday | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Saturday, 12 January 2002


Sat 12 Jan

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Saturday, 12 January 2002


Short Course/Workshop/Special Conferences Registration

Sunday, 13 January 2002

Saturday | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Sunday, 13 January 2002


Sun 13 Jan

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 13 January 2002


Short Course/Workshop/Special Conferences Registration

9:00 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 13 January 2002


CONFERENCE REGISTRATION

Monday, 14 January 2002

Saturday | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Monday, 14 January 2002


Mon 14 Jan


Sessions end for the day

7:30 AM-7:30 AM: Monday, 14 January 2002


Registration continues through Thursday, 17 January

9:00 AM-9:00 AM: Monday, 14 January 2002


Welcoming Remarks

9:30 AM-2:44 PM: Monday, 14 January 2002


1
Effective Assimilation of the Vast Observational Datasets Becoming Available
Sponsor: Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction
Organizer: Robert Atlas, NASA/DAO

Papers:
  9:30 AM
1.1
ECMWF Status and Future Research Directions in Data Assimilation and Ensemble Prediction (Invited Presentation)
Anthony Hollingsworth, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom

  10:00 AM
1.2
Recent developments in Data Assimilation at NCEP and Joint Center (Invited Presentation)
Stephen J. Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD

  10:30 AM
1.3
Assimilation and evaluation of satellite data at the DAO
Lars Peter Riishojgaard, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

  10:45 AM
1.4
The developing infrastructure for hyperspectral data assimilation at the University of Wisconsin-Madison
John R. Mecikalski, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. Posselt

  11:00 AM
1.5
The Australian east coast sub-tropical storm of March 8–9, 2001: synoptic analysis and data assimilation experiments at landfall
Lance M. Leslie, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and J. LeMarshall, M. S. Speer, and R. F. Abbey

 
1.6
On the Strategies for the 4D-Var Assimilation of TOMS Ozone Observation into Atmospheric Models

  11:30 AM
1.7
Some experiments with a simple dynamical covariance evolution scheme for the assimilation of atmospheric moisture observations
Dick P. Dee, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

Poster PDF (22.8 kB)
 
1.8
Using ADAS Cloud Analysis to Initialize COAMPS Cloud Fields

  11:45 AM
1.9
Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Adjoint Models for the Regional Atmospheric Modeling and Data Assimilation System (RAMDAS)
Thomas J. Greenwald, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and T. Vukicevic

Poster PDF (144.8 kB)
 
1.10
Analysis of the singular vectors of the full-physics FSU Global Spectral Model

  12:15 PM
1.11
Sea Surface Pressure Fields From NASA’s Seawinds Scatterometer and their Impact on NWP
Shannon R. Davis, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa, R. Atlas, J. Ardizzone, E. Brin, J. J. O'Brien, and D. F. Zierden

Poster PDF (177.5 kB)
  12:30 PM
1.12
Recent Developments in DAO's Finite-volume Data Assimilation System
Arlindo M. da Silva, NASA//GSFC/DAO, Greenbelt, MD; and S. J. Lin, D. Dee, J. Joiner, D. Frank, and P. Norris

  12:45 PM
1.2a
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

  1:15 PM
1.6a
Lunch Break

  2:45 PM
1.12a
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 14 January 2002


Poster Session 1
Effective Assimilation of the Vast Observational Datasets Becoming Available
Sponsor: Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction

Papers:
 
P1.1
Utility of including precipitable water data for tropical wave wind regression analysis

 
P1.2
Multivariate assimilation of SST, sea level and currents for tropical Pacific Ocean
Eric Hackert, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. Ballabrera and A. Busalacchi

 
P1.3
Using 4d-Var to assimilate satellite data into MM5 Hurricane Floyd simulations
Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen, J. Tenerelli, and R. Foster

 
P1.4
Improving the incorporation of polar satellite passive microwave precipitation estimates into the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System
Robert J. Kuligowski, NOAA/ORA, Camp Springs, MD; and R. Treadon, W. Chen, and R. R. Ferraro

 
P1.5
MADIS: The Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System
Michael F. Barth, NOAA/ERL/FSL, Boulder, CO; and P. A. Miller and A. E. MacDonald

 
P1.6
Upper-Level Wind Retrievals Using the Satellite Surface Wind and Temperature Soundings
Cheng-Zhi Zou, NOAA/ORA, Camp Springs, MD

 
P1.7
The impact of Assimilating ACARS data on the performance of a real-time FDDA weather analysis and forecasting system
Rong-Shyang Sheu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, S. Low-Nam, and L. Carson

Poster PDF (104.5 kB)
 
P1.8
Dynamic Adjustment within an Idealized Numerically-Simulated Bow Echo: Implications for Data Assimilation
Ernani L. Nascimento, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and K. K. Droegemeier

Poster PDF (246.5 kB)
 
P1.9
Assimilation of IRS-P4 (Oceansat-I) Meteorological Data in the NCMRWF Data Assimilation System
Rupa Kamineni, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi, India; and K. Sarat chandra, R. Riffat, P. Rajendra, and M. Uma

 
P1.10
GEOS-Terra Data Assimilation System Data at the Goddard Earth Sciences DISC/DAAC
Sunmi Cho, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and C. Phelps, J. Qin, and G. Serafino

 
P1.11
New Approach Of Dynamic Data Modeling and Its Application to Precipitation Forecasting
XiaoJing Jia, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

 
P1.12
1D Variational assimilation of cloud- and land-affected TOVS/ATOVS level 1b data and preparation for AIRS
Joanna Joiner, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and A. da Silva and D. Frank

 
P1.13
Impact of covariance modeling and data selection on assimilated ozone
Ivanka Stajner, NASA/GSFC and GSC/SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Rood and N. Winslow

http://dao.gsfc.nasa.gov/pages/ozone_assim.html

Poster PDF (75.9 kB)
 
P1.14
Vertical relative humidity profile estimation from VIRS and TMI on board TRMM
Toshiro Inoue, MRI/JMA, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 14 January 2002


Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)

Tuesday, 15 January 2002

Saturday | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Tues 15 Jan

8:30 AM-9:46 AM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


2
observing systems forecast impact experiments
Sponsor: Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction
Organizer: Anthony Hollingsworth, ECMWF

Papers:
  8:30 AM
2.1
Observing Systems Forecast Impact Experiments at DAO
Robert Atlas, NASA/GSFC/DAO, Greenbelt, MD

Poster PDF (47.8 kB)
  9:00 AM
2.2
The impact of five remotely sensed and five in-situ data types in the Eta Data Assimilation System
Tom H. Zapotocny, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and W. P. Menzel, J. P. Nelson III, and J. A. Jung

  9:15 AM
2.3
Assimilation of HRDI Line-of-Sight Winds
Andrew V. Tangborn, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Menard and D. Ortland

Poster PDF (265.8 kB)
  9:30 AM
2.4
EFFECTIVE ROUTINE OBSERVATIONAL NETWORKS IN A T21L3 QG MODEL
Craig H. Bishop, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds

  9:45 AM
2.5
Paper has been moved to session 7, new paper number 7.8

8:30 AM-2:00 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Joint Session 1
Ensemble forecasting and predicability (Joint with the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Science)
Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction; and the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Organizer: Michael Ghil, Univ. of Califorina

Papers:
  8:30 AM
J1.1
Skill and Value of ECMWF ensembles (Invited Presentation)
David S. Richardson, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom

  8:45 AM
J1.2
Multi-Model Superensemble Forecasts for Weather and Seasonal Climate (Invited Presentation)
T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, D. W. Shin, and E. Williford

  9:00 AM
J1.3
Generating Initial Conditions for Ensemble Forecasts: Monte-Carlo vs. Dynamic Methods
Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and C. Snyder

Poster PDF (226.8 kB)
  9:15 AM
J1.4
Advances in Short Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) at NCEP
M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and J. Du

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)
  9:30 AM
J1.5
Assessment of a multi-centre "poor man's" ensemble prediction system for short-range use
Kenneth R. Mylne, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and K. B. Robertson

Poster PDF (114.6 kB)
  9:45 AM
J1.6
The impact of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on probabilistic forecasts of precipitation by the ECMWF EPS
Steven L. Mullen, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and R. Buizza

  10:00 AM
J1.7
Towards nonlinear probabilistic prediction
Joseph Tribbia, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Baumhefner and R. Errico

  10:15 AM
J1.8
Does increased model resolution enhance predictability?
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and Y. Zhu, I. Szunyogh, M. Iredell, and R. Wobus

http://sgi62.wwb.noaa.gov:8080/ens/enshome.html

Poster PDF (448.2 kB)
  10:30 AM
J1.9
Tangent linear and nonlinear growth of optimal perturbations
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. E. Rosmond

  10:45 AM
J1.10
A comparison of breeding and ensemble transform Kalman filter ensemble forecast schemes
Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop

Poster PDF (2.7 MB)
  11:00 AM
J1.11
Unstable cycles and disturbance growth in a quasi-geostrophic channel model
Roger M. Samelson, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

  11:15 AM
J1.12
Ensemble-based "pre-emptive" forecasts
Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. H. Bishop

Poster PDF (185.8 kB)
  11:30 AM
J1.6a
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

  12:00 PM
J1.12a
Grand Poster Luncheon

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Poster Session 2
Observing Systems Forecast Impact Experiments
Sponsor: Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction

Papers:
 
P2.1
Assigning water vapor wind heights by weighting functions
William H. Raymond, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. S. Wade

 
P2.2
Data Assimilation and Weather Regimes in a Three-Level Quasi-Geostrophic Model
D. Kondrashov, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and M. Ghil, K. Ide, and R. Todling

Poster PDF (360.6 kB)
 
P2.3
Mesoscale model forecast sensitivity to varying data assimilation methods

 
P2.4
AIRS Data Support at the GES-DISC/DAAC
Liguang Wu, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Qin and G. Serafino

 
P2.5
A regional comparison of GPS atmospheric moisture measurements at Plymouth and Bartlett, New Hampshire
Derek W. Brown, Plymouth State College, Plymouth, NH; and S. J. Clarke and J. Zabransky Jr.

Poster PDF (169.6 kB)
 
P2.6
On Quality Control Procedures Being Adopted for TRMM LBA and KWAJEX Soundings Data Sets
Biswadev Roy, SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; and J. B. Halverson

Poster PDF (40.4 kB)

2:00 PM-5:14 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Joint Session 1
Ensemble Forecasting and Predictability: Continued (Joint with the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics)
Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction; and the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Organizer: Brian Farrell, Harvard Univ.

Papers:
  2:00 PM
J1.13
Sequential Estimation of Regime Transitions (Invited Presentation)
Michael Ghil, University of California, Los Angeles, CA

  2:15 PM
J1.14
Limited Area Predictability: What Skill additional to that of the Global Model can be achieved, and for how long?
Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and K. Brill, H. Chuang, G. DiMego, and E. Rogers

 
J1.15
Uncertainty in meso-scale meteorological model output and its relation to ensemble forecast

  2:30 PM
J1.16
Synoptic interpretation of adjoint-derived forecast sensitivities
Daryl T. Kleist, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan

http://helios.aos.wisc.edu

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)
  2:45 PM
J1.17
Simplified Short Term Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts: Theory
Hank Herr, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and E. Welles, M. Mullusky, L. Wu, and J. Schaake

Poster PDF (700.2 kB)
  3:00 PM
J1.18
How Well Can Ensemble Perturbations Explain Forecast Errors?
Mozheng Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, UCAR Visiting Scientist, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth

Poster PDF (808.5 kB)
  3:15 PM
J1.19
Evaluation of a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System over the Pacific Northwest
Eric Grimit, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass

  3:30 PM
J1.20
Ensemble canonical correlation prediction of seasonal precipitation over the United States: raising the bar for dynamical model forecasts
William K. M. Lau, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and K. M. Kim and S. S. P. Shen

  3:45 PM
J1.21
Historical Seasonal Forecasts with a Simple GCM
Hai Lin, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and J. Derome and G. Brunet

Poster PDF (254.4 kB)
  4:00 PM
J1.22
Stochastic forecast models for nonlinear deterministic systems
Leonard A. Smith, Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London, United Kingdom; and K. Judd

  4:15 PM
J1.23
The value of perfection
James A. Hansen, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and L. A. Smith, J. von Hardenberg, and C. E. Forest

  4:30 PM
J1.24
The Kalman-LÉvy filtering: Sequential assimilation methodology for power law and LÉvy law noises
Kayo Ide, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and D. Sornette

Poster PDF (304.8 kB)
  4:45 PM
J1.19A
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

3:00 PM-7:30 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Exhibit Hours

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Joint Session 2
Joint Session with the 16th Conference on Hydrology and the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction
Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction; and the 16th Conference on Hydrology )
Organizer: To be announced

Papers:
  4:00 PM
J2.1
Another Statistical Look at LDAS Soil Moisture Fields
John C. Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and Q. Duan, K. E. Mitchell, P. R. Houser, E. F. Wood, D. P. Lettenmaier, B. Cosgrove, D. Lohmann, R. Pinker, A. Roback, J. Sheffield, and D. Tarpley

  4:15 PM
J2.2
NCEP Regional Reanalysis
Fedor Mesinger, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and UCAR, Camp Springs, MD; and G. DiMego, E. Kalnay, P. Shafran, E. Berbery, W. Collins, W. Ebisuzaki, R. W. Higgins, J. Huang, Y. Lin, K. E. Mitchell, D. Parrish, and E. Rogers

  4:30 PM
J2.3
Evaluation of Colorado River Basin Ensemble Streamflow Predictions
Kristie J. Franz, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and H. C. Hartmann, S. Sorooshian, and R. Bales

  4:45 PM
J2.4
Improving land surface modeling with data assimilation of TRMM data
Jared K. Entin, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. R. Houser, J. P. Walker, and E. Burke

  5:00 PM
J2.5
Real-time and Retrospective Simulations of Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model in LDAS
Qingyun Duan, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. Lohmann, J. C. Schaake, and K. E. Mitchell

  5:15 PM
J2.6
A spatial data mining approach for verification and understanding of ensemble precipitation forecasting
Xuechao Yu, NOAA/NWS and CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, L. Yang, and L. Gruenwald


3
Emerging role of data assimilation in the oceans, land surface, atmospheric chemistry, hydrology, and the water cycle: Part I
Sponsor: Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction
Organizer: Franco Einaudi, NASA/GSFC

Papers:
  4:00 PM
3.1
Recent experience with practical ocean data assimilation
Paola Malanotte-Rizzoli, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and C. Wunsch, D. Behringer, and M. M. Rienecker

Poster PDF (278.2 kB)
  4:30 PM
3.2
Understanding the global water and energy cycle through assimilation of precipitation-related observations: Lessons from TRMM and prospects for GPM
Arthur Y. Hou, NASA/GSFC/DAO, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Q. Zhang, A. M. da Silva, and J. L. F. Li

  4:45 PM
3.3
Assimilation of cloudy radiance measurements using Regional Atmospheric Modeling and Data Assimilation System at CIRA
Tomislava Vukicevic, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and M. Zupanski, D. Zupanski, and T. Greenwald

  5:00 PM
3.4
Data assimilation with a multiscale chemistry-transport forecast model
Blond Nadege, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique/CNRS, Palaiseau, France; and L. Bel and V. Robert

Poster PDF (401.1 kB)
  5:15 PM
3.5
Middle atmosphere data assimilation with a climate model
Saroja Polavarapu, MSC, Downsview, ON, Canada; and S. Ren, Y. Rochon, and D. Sankey

Poster PDF (114.2 kB)

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 15 January 2002


Sessions End for the day

Wednesday, 16 January 2002

Saturday | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Wed 16 Jan

8:00 AM-9:30 AM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


President's Symposium

9:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

10:00 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


President's Symposium (Continued)

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Joint Poster Session 1
Ensemble Forecasting and Other Topics in Probability and Statistics (Joint with the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences and the Symposium onObservations, Data Assimilation,and Probabilistic Prediction)
Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction; and the 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Organizer: Dan Wilks, Cornell Univ.

Papers:
 
JP1.1
The advantages of using polygons for the verification of NWS warnings
Peter A. Browning, NOAA/NWSFO, Pleasant Hill, MO; and M. Mitchell

Poster PDF (85.4 kB)
 
JP1.2
10 Years of Daily Forecast Verification
Dan G. Bellue, NOAA/NWS, Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX

Poster PDF (109.7 kB)
 
JP1.3
Evaluation of seasonal climate outlooks for the United States
Gloria Forthun, Southeast Regional Climate Center, Columbia, SC; and S. Meyer

Poster PDF (18.8 kB)
 
JP1.4
Validation of NSIPP Tier-2 Seasonal Forecasts: what can we gain from improved SST forecasts?
Philip J. Pegion, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert and M. J. Suarez

Poster PDF (209.6 kB)
 
JP1.5
Using skill scores to assist assessment of the "Man-MOS-Met Mix" in probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasting
Preston W. Leftwich Jr., NOAA/NWS, Kansas City, MO

Poster PDF (394.5 kB)
 
JP1.6
Principal component analysis of month-to-month precipitation variability for NCDC California climatic divisions,(1895–6 through 2000–1 seasons)
Charles J. Fisk, U.S. Navy, Point Mugu, CA

Poster PDF (1.0 MB)
 
JP1.7
Automated, supervised synoptic map-pattern classification using recursive partitioning trees
Alex J. Cannon, MSC, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and P. H. Whitfield and E. R. Lord

Poster PDF (191.3 kB)
 
JP1.8
Summary statistics of precipitation and its anomalies for regions of Virginia from 1900 through 1999
T. Dale Bess, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA

Poster PDF (54.2 kB)
 
JP1.9
data mining patterns in local heavy precipitation events
George A. Fenton, LANL, Los Alamos, NM

 
JP1.10
A Comparison Between Neural Network and Linear Regression Approaches to a Short-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Problem
Yerong Feng, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou, China; and D. Kitzmiller

 
JP1.11
Annual course of successive 30-days' overall, above normal, and below normal temperature persistence at one-day intervals for four U.S. stations with lengthy histories
Charles J. Fisk, U.S. Navy, Point Mugu, CA

Poster PDF (2.2 MB)
 
JP1.12
Retrospective Time Integration Scheme in Mesoscale Numerical Model
Xiao-Jing Jia, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

 
JP1.13
A New Year-round Multivariable Comfort Index
Ken Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and M. Steinberg

 
JP1.14
PRIMARY AND SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF THE NUMBER OF ASTHMA ATTACKS ON THE TERRITORY OF THE CITY OF BITOLA-MACEDONIA
Blagojce Mickovski, NOAA/NWS, Bitola, Macedonia; and Z. Nakeski

 
JP1.15
Influence of environmental and model uncertainty on Lagrangian flow structures
Leonid Kuznetsov, Brown University, Providence, RI; and C. K. R. T. Jones, M. Toner, and A. D. Kirwan Jr.

 
JP1.16
Impact of improved initialization of mesoscale features on QPF skill in both 10km deterministic and ensemble forecasts
William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and M. Segal and I. Jankov

 
JP1.17
Land surface forcing as an element in seasonal ensemble prediction
Loren D. White, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS

 
JP1.18
Use of adjoint-derived sensitivities in constructing an ensemble of forecasts
Daryl T. Kleist, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan and G. A. Postel

http://helios.aos.wisc.edu

Poster PDF (525.8 kB)
 
JP1.19
Simplified Short Term Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts: Application
Mary Mullusky, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and L. Wu, H. Herr, E. Welles, J. C. Schaake, J. Ostrowski, and N. Pryor

http://marfchp1.met.psu.edu/AHPS/juniata_river.htm

Poster PDF (234.0 kB)
 
JP1.20
Short Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREF) During IPEX
James A. Nelson Jr., NOAA/NWSFO, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh

 
JP1.21
A Comparison of Ensemble Based Data Assimilation Schemes
Brian J. Etherton, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop

 
JP1.22
Calibration of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Based on the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasts
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth

 
JP1.23
Dynamic selection from among an ensemble of lateral boundary conditions for limited-area models

 
JP1.24
Early warnings of severe weather from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
Kenneth R. Mylne, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and T. P. Legg

Poster PDF (118.5 kB)
 
JP1.25
Estimation of uncertainties in atmospheric data assimilation using singular vectors
Hyun Mee Kim, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. C. Morgan

Poster PDF (171.6 kB)
 
JP1.26
Comparing approaches to develop short term ensemble precipitation products for hydrologic forecasting
John C. Schaake, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Mullusky, S. Perica, and E. Welles

 
JP1.27
Ensemble forecast bias and variance error correction
Richard Wobus, SAIC/GSC at NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth and Y. Zhu

 
JP1.28
Some methods of combining multi-model ensemble forecasts
Simon J. Mason, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA

 
JP1.29
Effective Use of Regional Ensemble Data in Forecasting
Richard H. Grumm, NOAA/NWS, State College, PA; and R. Hart

Poster PDF (182.0 kB)
 
JP1.30
Linear and Nonlinear Perspectives of Forecast Error Estimate Using the First Passage Time (Formerly Paper 5.6 in the Observations Program)
Peter C. Chu, NPS, Monterey, CA; and L. M. Ivanov


Poster Session 3
Emerging role of data assimilation in the oceans, land surface, atmospheric chemistry, hydrology, and the water cycle
Sponsor: Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction

Papers:
 
P3.1
An overview of a mesoscale 4DVAR data assimilation research model: RAMDAS
Tomislava Vukicevic, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and M. Zupanski, D. Zupanski, T. Greenwald, A. Jones, T. H. Vonder Haar, D. Ojima, and R. Pielke

 
P3.2
Data assimilation in eddy-resolving ocean circulation models
Steve Meacham, NSF, Arlington, VA

 
P3.3
Monitoring of ozone observations through data assimilation
Ivanka Stajner, NASA/GSFC and SAIC/GSC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Rood and N. Winslow

 
P3.4
Multivariate forecast error covariances for an ocean model estimated by Monte-Carlo simulation
Anna Borovikov, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. M. Rienecker

Poster PDF (127.1 kB)
 
P3.5
An Empirical Assessment of Meteorological Factors Associated with Lightning Episodes in the Carolina Piedmont
Jamie K. Arnold, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and W. Martin

Poster PDF (39.1 kB)
 
P3.6
Surface Temperature Assimilation in the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)
Michael G. Bosilovich, NASA/GSFC/DAO, Greenbelt, MD; and J. D. Radakovich, A. da Silva, and P. R. Houser

 
P3.7
Toward assimilation of cloud fields from radar data into mesoscale models
Angela Benedetti, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and T. Vukicevic and G. L. Stephens

 
P3.8
Tropospheric data assimilation of CO and O3
Richard Menard, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and J. Kaminski and J. McConnell

 
P3.9
Developing a blended continental snow cover dataset
David A. Robinson, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ

Poster PDF (14.3 kB)
 
P3.10
Impact of assimilation of surface winds on numerical prediction of tropical cyclones
Mukul Tewari, IBM, India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, India; and M. S. Santhanam and A. Sarkar

 
P3.11
Snow assimilation in a catchment-based land surface model using the extended Kalman Filter
Chaojiao Sun, University of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. P. Walker and P. Houser

http://land.gsfc.nasa.gov/~csun/

Poster PDF (63.8 kB)
 
P3.12
Reduced-rank Kalman filters: I. Application to an idealized model of the wind-driven ocean circulation
Mark Buehner, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and P. Malanotte-Rizzoli

Poster PDF (119.4 kB)

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Joint Session 7
Joint session with the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations and the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction
Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction; and the 13th Symposium on Global Change and Climate Variations )
Organizer: William K. M. Lau, NASA/GSFC

Papers:
  1:30 PM
J7.1
Potential Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Duane E. Waliser, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and W. Stern, C. Jones, and W. K. M. Lau

Poster PDF (62.3 kB)
  1:45 PM
J7.2
Persistent locally coupled anomalies in the ocean-atmosphere
Malaquias Pena, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. Kalnay and M. Cai

Poster PDF (576.5 kB)
  2:00 PM
J7.3
Inter-decadal storm track variations as seen in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and radiosonde observations
Nili Harnik, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and E. K. M. Chang

  2:15 PM
J7.4
Surface turbulent heat fluxes over the Atlantic Ocean synthesized from satellite measurements and NWP model analyses
Bomin Sun, WHOI, Woods Hole, MA; and L. Yu and R. A. Weller

http://

Poster PDF (228.8 kB)
  2:30 PM
J7.5
Feasibility of reanalysis before the radiosonde era
Gilbert P. Compo, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and P. D. Sardeshmukh

  2:45 PM
J7.6
Long-lead wintertime potential predictability:an assessment from NCEP's climate model
Wilbur Y. Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD

Poster PDF (1.8 MB)
  3:00 PM
J7.7
Design of the framework of high-resolution global atmospheric models
Bin Wang, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

  3:15 PM
J7.7a
Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

3:00 PM-7:30 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Exhibit Hours

3:30 PM-5:15 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


5
other methods for statistical analysis and probabilistic predictions
Sponsor: Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction
Organizer: Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

Papers:
  3:30 PM
5.1
Operational calibrated probability forecasts from the ECMWF ensemble prediction system - implementation and verification
Kenneth R. Mylne, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and C. Woolcock, J. C. W. Denholm-Price, and R. J. Darvell

Poster PDF (139.9 kB)
  3:45 PM
5.2
Inverse Modeling of a Multiplicative Stochastic System
Cecile Penland, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO

  4:00 PM
5.3
Error growth in uncertain systems
Petros J. Ioannou, University of Athens, Athens, Greece; and B. F. Farrell

http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~epsas/dynamics/predictability/uncertain1.pdf

Poster PDF (207.0 kB)
  4:15 PM
5.4
A High Resolution, Local Point Forecast Model
Ken Reeves, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA; and M. Steinberg

  4:30 PM
5.5
End-to-end ensemble forecasting: Ensemble interpretation in forecasting and risk management
Mark S. Roulston, Pembroke College, Oxford, United Kingdom; and L. A. Smith

Poster PDF (196.6 kB)
  4:44 PM
5.6
Paper has been moved to Joint Poster Session 1, new paper number JP1.30

  4:45 PM
5.7
State estimation using reduced rank Kalman filters
Brian F. Farrell, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and P. J. Ioannou

http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~epsas/dynamics/predictability/storm_kalman_aug30.pdf

Poster PDF (222.0 kB)
  5:00 PM
5.8
Predictability of linear stochastic dynamics
Michael K. Tippett, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and P. Chang

Poster PDF (122.1 kB)

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


4
Emerging Role of Data Assimilation in the Oceans, Land Surface, Atmospheric Chemistry, Hydrology and the Water Cycle: Part II
Sponsor: Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction
Organizer: Tony J. Busalacchi, Univ. of Maryland

Papers:
  3:30 PM
4.1
The Global Land Data Assimilation System
Paul R. Houser, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

 
4.2
Land Surface Data Assimilation and the Northern Gulf Coast Land/Sea Breeze

  4:00 PM
4.3
Assimilation in Land Surface Hydrology: A General Theory
Venkataraman Lakshmi, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC

Poster PDF (165.8 kB)
  4:15 PM
4.4
Reduced-rank Kalman filters: II. Assimilation of Topex-Poseidon altimetry data into a realistic OGCM of the tropical Atlantic
Mark Buehner, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and P. Malanotte-Rizzoli, T. Inui, and A. Busalacchi

Poster PDF (509.2 kB)
  4:30 PM
4.5
The importance of salinity in the assimilation of temperature observations in the tropical Pacific Ocean
Alberto Troccoli, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker

http://janus.gsfc.nasa.gov/~troccoli

Poster PDF (92.8 kB)
  4:45 PM
4.6
Advective pathways determined from a CUPOM of the Gulf of Mexico
M. Toner, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and A. D. Kirwan, Jr., L. Kuznetsov, A. C. Poje, C. K. R. T. Jones, L. Kantha, and J. Choi

  5:00 PM
4.7
Pacific and Indian Ocean circulation during 1993–2000: Assimilation of TOPEX/Poseidon data into a near global OGCM
I. Fukumori, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and T. Lee, B. Tang, B. Cheng, D. Menemenlis, Z. Xing, and L. -. L. Fu

  5:15 PM
4.8
Aspects of the Extended and Ensemble Kalman filters for land data assimilation in the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project
Rolf H. Reichle, NASA/GSFC and University of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and R. D. Koster, J. P. Walker, M. M. Rienecker, and P. R. Houser

Poster PDF (89.2 kB)

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Sessions end for the day

6:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 16 January 2002


Reception (Cash Bar)

Thursday, 17 January 2002

Saturday | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | top

12:00 AM-12:00 AM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


Thurs 17 Jan

8:45 AM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


6
Ensembles and data assimilation
Sponsor: Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction
Organizer: Stephen Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

Papers:
  8:45 AM
6.1
Application of an ensemble Kalman filter with a dry multi-level primitive-equation model
Herschel L. Mitchell, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and P. L. Houtekamer and G. Pellerin

Poster PDF (90.4 kB)
  9:00 AM
6.2
An Ensemble Kalman Smoother for Reanalysis
Jeffrey S. Whitaker, Physical Sciences Division/ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo

Poster PDF (63.9 kB)
 
6.3
The use of synoptically dependent background error structures and a geostrophic co-ordinate transform in 3D variational data assimilation

  9:15 AM
6.4
Use of the breeding technique in the estimation of the background covariance matrix for a quasi-geostrophic model
E. Kalnay, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Corazza, D. J. Patil, E. Ott, J. A. Yorke, B. R. Hunt, I. Szunyogh, and M. Cai

Poster PDF (906.1 kB)
  9:30 AM
6.5
Multivariate Assimilation of Altimetry into an Ocean General Circulation Model with Diagnostic Sea-Surface Height Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter
Christian L. Keppenne, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and M. M. Rienecker

Poster PDF (186.0 kB)
  9:45 AM
6.6
A local least squares framework for ensemble filtering
Jeffrey L. Anderson, NOAA/GFDL and NCAR, Boulder, CO

Poster PDF (19.9 kB)
  10:00 AM
6.7
Spread-skill relationship in the Canadian ensemble prediction system
Richard Verret, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and F. Pithois, L. Lefaivre, P. Houtekamer, L. Wilson, G. Pellerin, and M. Klasa

Poster PDF (65.2 kB)
  10:15 AM
6.8
Are Bred Vectors the same as Lyapunov vectors?
Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Corazza and M. Cai

Poster PDF (677.8 kB)
  10:30 AM
6.9
Estimation of Analysis Error with the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System
Ricardo Todling, NASA/GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Yang, J. Guo, and S. E. Cohn

Poster PDF (707.4 kB)
  10:45 AM
6.10
Capabilities of ensemble filters for data assimilation
Jeffrey L. Anderson, NOAA/GFDL and NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Zhang

  11:00 AM
6.11
Tangent Linear and Adjoint of the Kain-Fritsch Moist-Convective Parameterization
Luc Fillion, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada; and S. Bélair

  11:15 AM
6.12
Regional data assimilation using a stretched-grid approach and ensemble calculations
Michael S. Fox-Rabinovitz, University of Maryland and NASA/GSFC/DAO, College Park, MD; and L. L. Takacs and R. C. Govindaraju

http://

Poster PDF (10.3 kB)
  11:30 AM
6.6a
Coffee Break in the Poster Session Room

  12:00 PM
6.12a
Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:45 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


Joint Session 3
Joint session with the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems and the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction
Sponsors: (Joint between the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction; and the Sixth Symposium on Integrated Observing Systems )
Organizer: Kenneth Mylne, Met Office

Papers:
  1:30 PM
J3.1
Automation of visual observations at KNMI; (i) Comparison of present weather
Wiel M. F. Wauben, KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands

Poster PDF (990.4 kB)
  1:45 PM
J3.2
Automation of visual observations at KNMI; (ii) Comparison of automated cloud reports with routine visual observations
Wiel M. F. Wauben, KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands

Poster PDF (727.6 kB)
  2:00 PM
J3.3
Determination of surface and atmospheric parameters under cloudy conditions from AIRS/AMSU/HSB data
Joel Susskind, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and C. Barnet and J. Blaisdell

  2:15 PM
J3.4
Determining the “Optimum” Distribution of Cooperative Observer Network Stations to Support the National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Modernization Initiative
Stephen A. Del Greco, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and D. Smith

Poster PDF (644.0 kB)
  2:30 PM
J3.5
The Effect of Averaging Surface Roughness Values on Coastal Winds for Different Mesocale Model Resolutions
Gueorgui V. Mostovoi, Mississippi State University, Stennis Space Center, MS; and P. J. Fitzpatrick, Y. Li, D. Herndon, N. Tran, and E. Valenti

Poster PDF (5.5 MB)

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


7
strategies for adaptive observations
Sponsor: Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction
Organizer: Herschell Mitchell, MSC

Papers:
  1:30 PM
7.1
Adaptive observations at NCEP: Past, present, and future
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Spring, MD; and I. Szunyogh, C. H. Bishop, S. J. Majumdar, R. Morss, J. Moskaitis, D. Reynolds, D. Weinbrenner, D. Michaud, N. Surgi, M. Ralph, J. Parrish, J. Talbot, J. Pavone, and S. J. Lord

http://sgi62.wwb.noaa.gov:8080/ens/enshome.html

Poster PDF (1.4 MB)
  1:45 PM
7.2
Using Large Member Ensembles to Isolate Local Low Dimensionality of Atmospheric Dynamics
D. J. Patil, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and I. Szunyogh, E. Kalnay, B. R. Hunt, E. Ott, and J. A. Yorke

Poster PDF (4.3 MB)
  2:00 PM
7.3
On the dynamical basis of targeting weather observations
Istvan Szunyogh, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. V. Zimin, D. J. Patil, B. R. Hunt, E. Kalnay, J. A. Yorke, and E. Ott

Poster PDF (2.1 MB)
  2:15 PM
7.4
Singular vectors and observation targeting
Martin Leutbecher, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and T. N. Palmer and A. J. Thorpe

  2:30 PM
7.5
Optimal Observations for Variational Data Assimilation
Armin G. Koehl, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and D. Stammer

  2:45 PM
7.6
Drifter launch strategies based on dynamic Lagrangian templates
M. Toner, University of Delaware, Newark, DE; and A. C. Poje, A. D. Kirwan, Jr., and C. K. R. T. Jones

  3:00 PM
7.7
Quantifying the impact of observations using ensembles
Brian J. Etherton, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar and C. H. Bishop

  3:15 PM
7.8
The Role of Observing-System Representativeness Error in the Predictability of Extratropical Weather Events (Formerly paper number 2.5)
Melvyn A. Shapiro, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and M. Leutbecher

  3:30 PM
7.8a
Symposium Ends

3:00 PM-6:30 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


Exhibit Hours

3:15 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall

5:00 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


Closing Event Begins

5:00 PM-6:15 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar)

6:30 PM-7:30 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


Event Presentation

7:30 PM-7:30 PM: Thursday, 17 January 2002


9
Tropical Party

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