Thursday, 17 January 2002: 9:44 AM
A local least squares framework for ensemble filtering
A number of methods for using ensemble integrations of numerical models
as integral parts of data assimilation have appeared in the atmospheric
and oceanic literature. Many of these have been derived from the Kalman
filter and have been called ensemble Kalman filters. A more general class
of methods that includes these ensemble Kalman filters is derived
from the nonlinear filtering problem. By working in a joint
state / observation space, many features of ensemble filtering
algorithms become easier to derive. The ensemble filter
methods discussed make use of a (local) least squares assumption about
the relation between the prior distribution of an observation variable
and the model state variables. The update procedure
applied when a new observation becomes available can be described in two
parts. First, an update increment is computed for each prior ensemble
estimate of the observation variable by applying a scalar ensemble filter.
Second, a linear regression of the prior ensemble sample of each state
variable on the observation variable is used to compute update increments
for the state variables. The regression can be applied globally or
locally using Gaussian kernel methods.
Several previously documented ensemble Kalman filter methods are developed in this context. Some new ensemble filters that are clearly beyond the Kalman filter context are also discussed. The two part method allows a computationally efficient implementation of ensemble filters and also provides a more straightforward comparison of these methods since they differ only in the solution of a scalar filtering problem.
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