Session: Ensemble forecasting and predicability (Joint with the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Science) (2002 Annual)

Tuesday, 15 January 2002: 8:30 AM-2:00 PM

Organizer: Michael Ghil, Univ. of Califorina

Papers:

8:30 AM

J1.1

Skill and Value of ECMWF ensembles (Invited Presentation)

David S. Richardson, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom

8:45 AM

J1.2

Multi-Model Superensemble Forecasts for Weather and Seasonal Climate (Invited Presentation)

T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, D. W. Shin, and E. Williford

9:00 AM

J1.3

Generating Initial Conditions for Ensemble Forecasts: Monte-Carlo vs. Dynamic Methods

Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and C. Snyder

Poster PDF (226.8 kB)

9:15 AM

J1.4

Advances in Short Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) at NCEP

M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and J. Du

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

9:30 AM

J1.5

Assessment of a multi-centre "poor man's" ensemble prediction system for short-range use

Kenneth R. Mylne, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and K. B. Robertson

Poster PDF (114.6 kB)

9:45 AM

J1.6

The impact of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on probabilistic forecasts of precipitation by the ECMWF EPS

Steven L. Mullen, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and R. Buizza

10:00 AM

J1.7

Towards nonlinear probabilistic prediction

Joseph Tribbia, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Baumhefner and R. Errico

10:15 AM

J1.8

Does increased model resolution enhance predictability?

Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and Y. Zhu, I. Szunyogh, M. Iredell, and R. Wobus

http://sgi62.wwb.noaa.gov:8080/ens/enshome.html

Poster PDF (448.2 kB)

10:30 AM

J1.9

Tangent linear and nonlinear growth of optimal perturbations

Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. E. Rosmond

10:45 AM

J1.10

A comparison of breeding and ensemble transform Kalman filter ensemble forecast schemes

Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop

Poster PDF (2.7 MB)

11:00 AM

J1.11

Unstable cycles and disturbance growth in a quasi-geostrophic channel model

Roger M. Samelson, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

11:15 AM

J1.12

Ensemble-based "pre-emptive" forecasts

Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. H. Bishop

Poster PDF (185.8 kB)

11:30 AM

J1.6a

Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

12:00 PM

J1.12a

Grand Poster Luncheon

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Joint Session 1: Ensemble forecasting and predicability (Joint with the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Science)