2002 Annual

Joint Session 1: Ensemble forecasting and predicability (Joint with the Symposium on Observations, Data Assimilation, and Probabilistic Prediction and 16th Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Science)

Tuesday, 15 January 2002: 8:30 AM-2:00 PM
Organizer:  Michael Ghil, Univ. of Califorina
  8:30 AM
Skill and Value of ECMWF ensembles (Invited Presentation)
David S. Richardson, ECMWF, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom

  8:45 AM
Multi-Model Superensemble Forecasts for Weather and Seasonal Climate (Invited Presentation)
T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, D. W. Shin, and E. Williford

  9:00 AM
Generating Initial Conditions for Ensemble Forecasts: Monte-Carlo vs. Dynamic Methods
Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO; and J. S. Whitaker and C. Snyder

Poster PDF (226.8 kB)
  9:15 AM
Advances in Short Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) at NCEP
M. Steven Tracton, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and J. Du

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)
  9:30 AM
Assessment of a multi-centre "poor man's" ensemble prediction system for short-range use
Kenneth R. Mylne, Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom; and K. B. Robertson

Poster PDF (114.6 kB)
  9:45 AM
  10:00 AM
Towards nonlinear probabilistic prediction
Joseph Tribbia, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. Baumhefner and R. Errico

  10:15 AM
Does increased model resolution enhance predictability?
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Washington, DC; and Y. Zhu, I. Szunyogh, M. Iredell, and R. Wobus


Poster PDF (448.2 kB)
  10:30 AM
Tangent linear and nonlinear growth of optimal perturbations
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. E. Rosmond

  10:45 AM
A comparison of breeding and ensemble transform Kalman filter ensemble forecast schemes
Xuguang Wang, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop

Poster PDF (2.7 MB)
  11:00 AM
Unstable cycles and disturbance growth in a quasi-geostrophic channel model
Roger M. Samelson, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

  11:15 AM
Ensemble-based "pre-emptive" forecasts
Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. H. Bishop

Poster PDF (185.8 kB)
  11:30 AM
Coffee Break in Poster Session Room

  12:00 PM
Grand Poster Luncheon