83rd Annual

Wednesday, 12 February 2003: 8:30 AM
The benefit of long lead-time hydrologic forecasts during drought in the Ohio River Valley
Thomas E. Adams III, NOAA/NWS, Wilmington, OH
The National Weather Service (NWS) Ohio River Forecast Center (OHRFC) is currently issuing long lead-time hydrologic forecasts (>30 days) for a significant region within the Ohio River Valley and drainage into Lake Erie. Long lead-time forecasts for the entire OHRFC area of responsibility will become operational by the end of 2006 as the initial implementation of the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) is completed. It is expected that significant benefits from AHPS forecasts will be derived during dry periods and especially droughts due to (1) the long lead-times and (2) probabilistic nature of the forecasts using ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) methods. This paper addresses the water resources areas where greatest impacts should be incurred and maximum benefits derived.

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