A case study of tropical cyclone intensity forecast depending on cumulus parameterization

The impact of two cumulus parameterizations on intensity of a simulated tropical cyclone was examined using a limited area numerical model. Moist convective adjustment scheme and Arakawa-Schubert scheme were used as a cumulus parameterization. Difference in the cumulus parameterizations had drastic influence on difference in sea-level pressure averaged within core region of the simulated storm from early stage of the integration, although difference in central pressure appeared at later stage. In the core region temperature tendency due to moist convective adjustment was considerably negative in the lower troposphere and so was actual temperature tendency, which made air mass become greater than that with Arakawa-Schubert scheme. The difference in the central pressure between the two simulations was probably accounted for by difference in low-level moisture flux to the storm and associated rainfall rate.