24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Monday, 22 May 2000

7:00 AM-7:00 AM: Monday, 22 May 2000


SUN 28 MAY

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 22 May 2000


Conference Registration

Tuesday, 23 May 2000

6:00 AM-6:00 AM: Tuesday, 23 May 2000


MON 29 MAY

7:00 AM-5:00 PM: Tuesday, 23 May 2000


Conference Registration

8:00 AM-8:15 AM: Tuesday, 23 May 2000


Opening - Plenary Session

8:15 AM-8:30 AM: Tuesday, 23 May 2000


Session
Debate: "What limits the intensity of individual hurricanes: Thermodynamics or Dynamics?"
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
8:15 AM
Write-up of Debate
M. DeMaria, K. A. Emanuel, W. M. Gray,

9:45 AM-10:15 AM: Tuesday, 23 May 2000


Coffee Break

10:15 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 23 May 2000


Session 1A
Tropical cyclone intensity change theory I (Parallel with Sessions 1B and 1C)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT
10:15 AM
1A.1
SST time series directly under tropical cyclones: observations and implications
Joseph J. Cione, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. Molina, J. Kaplan, and P. G. Black

10:30 AM
1A.2
On the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Opal (1995) over the Gulf of Mexico
V. Mohan Karyampudi, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. B. Rodgers, H. F. Pierce, and J. Weinman

11:00 AM
1A.4
Microwave SST correlation with cyclone intensity
Chelle Gentemann, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and D. Smith and F. Wentz

11:15 AM
1A.5
Limitations on hurricane intensity
Greg J. Holland, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and Y. Wang

11:30 AM
1A.6
Effects of Vertical Shear on the Structure and Intensity of Hurricanes
William M. Frank, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and E. A. Ritchie

11:45 AM
1A.7
**A climatology of hurricane maximum potential intensity in the Atlantic basin
Christopher C. Hennon, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH


Session 1B
Tropical Waves And Instabilities I (Parallel with Sessions 1A and 1C) [This session will be dedicated to the memory of Dr. Yoshikazu Hayashi, GFDL]
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Joseph A. Zehnder, Univ. of Arizona
10:15 AM
1B.1
**Water vapor anomoly tropical wave tracing
Paul E. Roundy, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA

10:30 AM
1B.2
**The Energetics of the African Easterly Wave Life Cycle: A Case Study
Lourdes B. Avilés, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL

10:45 AM
1B.3
Role of easterly wave in the maintenance of the easterly jet
Rosana Nieto Ferreira, NASA/GSFC and USRA, Greenbelt, MD; and M. J. Suarez and J. T. Bacmeister

11:00 AM
1B.4
The dynamics of the African Easterly Jet. Part II: GCM simulations
Julio T. Bacmeister, USRA, Seabrook, MD; and M. J. Suarez and R. N. Ferreira

11:15 AM
1B.5
11:30 AM
1B.6
Potential vorticity structure and evolution in African Easterly Waves
Michael C. Morgan, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. A. Postel

11:45 AM
1B.7
Idealized modeling of Tropical easterly disturbances
Anantha R. Aiyyer, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari

10:15 AM-12:15 PM: Tuesday, 23 May 2000


Session 1C
Interannual Variations Of Tropical Cyclones (Parallel with Sessions 1A and 1B)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Fiona Horsfall, NOAA/NWS/TPC
10:15 AM
1C.1
Extended range forecasting of NW Pacific and SW Pacific landfalling tropical cyclones
Paul Rockett, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders

10:30 AM
1C.2
**Local environmental conditions related to seasonal hurricane activity in the NE Pacific Basin
Jennifer M. Collins, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom

10:45 AM
1C.3
Interannual and Decadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Central North Pacific
Pao-Shin Chu, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and J. Clark and B. Lin

11:00 AM
1C.4
Global tropical cyclone activity: A link to the North Atlantic oscillation
Bethany Kocher, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner

11:15 AM
1C.5
Exploring QBO-atlantic hurricane relationships prior to 1950
J. D. Sheaffer, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

11:30 AM
1C.6
Extended range forecasting of Atlantic and US landfalling tropical cyclones
Mark A. Saunders, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and P. Rockett, C. J. Merchant, and R. E. Chandler

11:45 AM
1C.7
NOAA Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts for 1999
Gerry Bell, NOAA/NWS/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and C. Landsea and S. B. Goldenberg

12:00 PM
1C.8

12:00 PM-1:15 PM: Tuesday, 23 May 2000


Lunch Break

1:15 PM-2:44 PM: Tuesday, 23 May 2000


Session 2A
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Theory II (Parallel with Sessions 2B and 2C)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Greg T. Holland, BMRC
1:15 PM
2A.1
Studies of the wavenumber one instability in hurricane-like vortices
David S. Nolan, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery and P. D. Reasor

1:30 PM
2A.2
1:46 PM
2A.4
**Dynamics and energetics of tropical cyclone rainbands
Charmaine N. Franklin, RMIT Univ., Melbourne, Vic., Australia

2:00 PM
2A.5
Cumulus Parameterization Schemes for a Minimal Tropical Cyclone Model
Roger K. Smith, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany

2:15 PM
2A.6
A Minimal Three-Dimensional Tropical Cyclone Model
Hongyan Zhu, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith and W. Ulrich

2:30 PM
2A.7
A Minimal Axisymmetric Tropical Cyclone Model
Chi Mai Nguyen, Monash Univ., Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and H. Zhu, R. K. Smith, and M. J. Reeder

1:15 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 23 May 2000


Session 2B
Tropical Waves and Instabilities II (Parallel with Sessions 2A and 2C)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State Univ.
1:15 PM
2B.1
The behavior of Rossby waves in summer monsoon-like flow
Hung-Chi Kuo, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and R. T. Williams and C. P. Chang

1:30 PM
2B.2
The non-existence of wave-CISK in the tropical regions
Han-Ru Cho, National Central University, Chungli, Taiwan

1:45 PM
2B.3
Analysis of tropospheric waves with periods of 1 to 30 days using the tropical pacific profiler network
Robert Schafer, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, CO; and S. K. Avery

2:00 PM
2B.4
Convectively coupled Kelvin waves
Katherine A. Harris, CIRES and NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis

2:15 PM
2B.5
Observed Three Dimensional structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves
George N. Kiladis, NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and K. A. Harris, B. E. Mapes, and M. Wheeler

2:30 PM
2B.6
Modeling the Madden-Julian oscillation and convectively coupled Kelvin waves
Matthew Wheeler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. E. Mapes, G. N. Kiladis, and K. A. Harris

2:45 PM
2B.7
Frictional Feedbacks on Large-Scale Equatorially Trapped Waves
Christopher S. Bretherton, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and B. M. Moskowitz


Session 2C
Intraseasonal Variations of Tropical Cyclones (Parallel with Sessions 2A and 2B)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: William Gray, Colorado State Univ.
1:30 PM
2C.2
Forecasts of Intraseasonal Periods of Tropical Cyclone Inactivity Over the Tropical Western North Pacific Ocean
Patrick A. Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry and J. C. L. Chan

1:45 PM
2C.3
2:15 PM
2C.5
Modulation of eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico hurricanes by the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Eric D. Maloney, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. L. Hartmann

2:30 PM
2C.6
Intraseasonal predictability of Atlantic basin hurricane activity
Stanley B. Goldenberg, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL

2:45 PM
2C.7
**Intraseasonal prediction of atlantic basin tropical cyclone variations
Eric S. Blake, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 23 May 2000


Coffee Break

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Tuesday, 23 May 2000


Session 3A
Tropical cyclone-trough interactions (Parallel with Sessions 3B and 3C)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Michael T. Montgomery, Colorado State Univ.
3:30 PM
3A.1
3:45 PM
3A.2
An observational study on the genesis of concentric eyewall hurricanes
Shangyao Nong, Applied Insurance Research, Inc., Boston, MA

4:00 PM
3A.3
Upper tropospheric flow transitions during rapid tropical cyclone intensification
Noel E. Davidson, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and S. K. Kar

4:15 PM
3A.4
Intensity change for Hurricane Opal (1995) in the GFDL hurricane model
John Persing, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery and R. E. Tuleya

4:30 PM
3A.5
A comparison of favourable and unfavourable hurricane-trough interactions
Deborah E. Hanley, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari and D. Keyser

4:45 PM
3A.6
Idealized modeling of hurricane-trough interaction
Sytske K. Kimball, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and J. L. Evans

3:30 PM-5:01 PM: Tuesday, 23 May 2000


Session 3B
Tropical cyclone motion theory I (Parallel with Sessions 3A and 3C)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Johnny Chan, City Univ. of Hong Kong
3:30 PM
3B.1
The interaction of a cyclone with topography on a b-plane
Chin-Chou Chu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and H. J. Chen and C. C. Chang

3:46 PM
3B.3
Potential vorticity mixing and tropical cyclone motion
Scott R. Fulton, Clarkson Univ., Potsdam, NY

4:01 PM
3B.4
Movement and Vertical Coupling of Adiabatic Baroclinic Tropical Cyclones
Liguang Wu, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang

4:16 PM
3B.5
Linear Motion of a Two-Layer, Baroclinic Hurricane in Shear
Robert W. Jones, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and H. Willoughby

4:47 PM
3B.2a
A REGIONAL SCALE ANALYSIS OF THE TRAJECTORY AND INTENSITY BEHAVIOR OF TROPICAL CYCLONES CROSSING THE CARRIBEAN ARCHIPELAGO (Formerly paper 3B.7)
C. Asselin de Beauville, Univ. of Antilles and of the Guyane and Meteo-France, Pointe a Pitre, Guadeloupe, France; and C. Pontikis and F. Pagney

3:30 PM-5:15 PM: Tuesday, 23 May 2000


Session 3C
Intraseasonal Variations In The Tropics (Parallel with Sessions 3A and 3B)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Bin Wang, Univ. of Hawaii
3:30 PM
3C.1
Intraseasonal Kelvin waves forcing and its relationship with ENSO
Jonathan C. Gottschalck, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang

3:46 PM
3C.3
The boreal summer Intraseasonal Oscillation and the South Asian monsoon
David M. Lawrence, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

4:00 PM
3C.4
Upper ocean heat budget in the western Pacific warm pool in response to Maden-Julian Oscillation
Toshiaki Shinoda, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and H. H. Hendon

4:15 PM
3C.5
Four-dimensional structures of the MJO and Kelvin wave in the CSU and CCM3 AGCMs
Charlotte A. DeMott, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall

4:30 PM
3C.6
The dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Joseph A. Zehnder, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and M. J. Reeder

5:00 PM
3C.8

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 23 May 2000


Sessions end for the day

5:30 PM-5:45 PM: Tuesday, 23 May 2000


Icebreaker/Reception

Wednesday, 24 May 2000

7:00 AM-7:00 AM: Wednesday, 24 May 2000


TUE 30 MAY

7:30 AM-7:30 AM: Wednesday, 24 May 2000


Conference Registration Continues through Friday, 2 June

8:00 AM-9:30 AM: Wednesday, 24 May 2000


Session 4A
Tropical Cyclone Motion Theory II/Adaptive observing systems and data assimilation I (Parallel with Sessions 4B and J1)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ.
8:00 AM
4A.1
Non-Barotropic Processes in tropical cyclone motion. Part I: Composite results
Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China

8:15 AM
4A.2
Non-Barotropic Processes in tropical cyclone motion. Part II: Individual Contributions from Diabatic Heating
Y. M. Lei, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan

8:30 AM
4A.3
Non-Barotropic Processes in Tropical Cyclone motion. Part III: Potential Vorticity Advection
Francis M. F. Ko, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan

8:45 AM
4A.4
A hurricane mission strategy using the Aerosonde
Greg Tyrrell, Aerosonde Robotic Aircraft Pty Ltd, Hawthorn, Vic., Australia; and J. Becker and G. J. Holland

9:00 AM
4A.5
Observational plan for typhoon over West North Pacific using Aerosonde (Typhoon Hunter 2000, 2001)
Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and K. Bessho, K. Nakamura, T. Furukawa, and C. Zhu

9:15 AM
4A.6

Session 4B
Interannual variations in the tropics (Parallel with Sessions 4A and J1)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Stanley Goldenberg, NOAA/AOML/HRD
8:00 AM
4B.1
The influence of the QBO on tropical deep convection
C. C. Collimore, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. W. Martin, M. H. Hitchman, and A. Heusmann

8:15 AM
4B.2
Interannual variability of sea level in the tropical and north Indian Ocean
Weiqing Han, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster and K. Sahami

8:30 AM
4B.3
Winter monsoon over South China in ENSO and non-ENSO years
M. C. Wu, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan

8:45 AM
4B.4
Variability of Near-Equatorial Lower Tropospheric Flow Over the East Pacific Cold Tongue
Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Bond and K. S. Gage

9:00 AM
4B.5
The low level jet and convective activity in the Caribbean
Jorge A. Amador, Univ. of Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica; and V. O. Magaña and J. B. Pérez

9:15 AM
4B.6
Interannual variability of Northern activity over the Americas
Víctor O. Magaña, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and J. L. Vázquez

8:00 AM-9:45 AM: Wednesday, 24 May 2000


Joint Session 1
Ocean interaction effects on tropical cyclone intensity I (Joint with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)
Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere )
Organizer: Yuqing Wang, Univ. of Hawaii
8:00 AM
J1.1
Hurricane directional wave spectrum spatial variation in the open ocean
C. Wayne Wright, NASA/GSFC, Wallops Island, VA; and E. J. Walsh, D. C. Vandemark, W. B. Krabill, A. W. Garcia, S. H. Houston, M. D. Powell, P. G. Black, and F. D. Marks

8:15 AM
J1.2
Global Analogues of Deep Warm Upper Ocean Layers: Hurricane Heat Potential Estimates
Lynn K. Shay, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and G. J. Goni, P. G. Black, S. D. Jacob, J. J. Cione, and E. Uhlhorn

8:30 AM
J1.3
Role of the Upper Ocean Structure on the Intensification of Hurricane Bret From Satellite Altimetry
Gustavo J. Goni, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, P. G. Black, S. D. Jacob, T. M. Cook, J. J. Cione, and E. Uhlhorn

8:45 AM
J1.4
Hurricane intensity change modulated by air-sea interaction effects based on unique airborne measurements during the 1998–99 hurricane seasons
Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn, J. J. Cione, G. J. Goni, L. K. Shay, S. D. Jacob, E. J. Walsh, and E. A. D'Asaro

9:00 AM
J1.5
Operational heat content charts at the Tropical Prediction Center
Michelle Mainelli Huber, NOAA/NWS/TPC, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay and R. J. Pasch

9:15 AM
J1.6
The GFDL/URI coupled hurricane ocean prediction system and its performance evaluation in the 1999 hurricane season
Isaac Ginis, Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and C. Rowley, L. Rothstein, S. A. Frolov, and M. A. Bender

9:30 AM
J1.7
Effects of planetary vorticity gradient and uniform current on Tropical Cyclone Intensity
Johnny C. L. Chan, City Univ. of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and Y. Duan

9:45 AM-9:45 AM: Wednesday, 24 May 2000


Coffee Break

10:15 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 24 May 2000


Session 5A
Adaptive Observing Systems and Data Assimilation II (Parallel with Sessions 5B and J2)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Sim Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD
10:30 AM
5A.2
Tropical cyclone track forecasting using data assimilation of high resolution satellite derived winds
Lance M. Leslie, Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and M. S. Speer

10:45 AM
5A.3
JTWC Integration of Remote Sensing Data into the TC Warning Process
Christopher A. Finta, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI

11:00 AM
5A.4
Assimilation of TRMM and SSM/I observations in a global spectral model: A case study of Nov–98 tropical cyclone
Mukul Tewari, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, India; and C. M. Kishtawal

11:15 AM
5A.5
Improved Data Assimilation in the Study of Hurricane Floyd (1999)
Jenni L. Evans, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia and Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and R. E. Hart and C. S. Velden

11:30 AM
5A.6
A comparison of data assimilation methods for hurricane track prediction
Eugenia Kalnay, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and L. M. Leslie, M. S. Speer, L. Qi, S. K. Park, and Z. X. Pu

11:45 AM
5A.7
Ensemble-based data assimilation in tropical cyclone forecasting
Brian J. Etherton, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop and S. J. Majumdar

10:15 AM-11:59 AM: Wednesday, 24 May 2000


Session 5B
Mesoscale convective systems (Parallel with Sessions 5A and J2)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Edward Zipser, Univ. of Utah
10:15 AM
5B.1
Initiation of an African Squall Line adn its interactions with an Easterly Wave
A. Diongue, CNRM and Meteo-France, Toulouse, France; and J. P. Lafore and J. L. Redelsperger

10:30 AM
5B.2
Gravity waves as a mechanism of convection triggering
Christine Lac, CNRM and Meteo-France, Toulouse, France; and J. P. Lafore and J. L. Redelsperger

10:45 AM
5B.3
**Characteristics of Convective Development in Simulated Squall Lines
Matthew Garcia, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

11:01 AM
5B.5
Early results from TRMM-LBA: Kinematic and microphsical characteristics of convection in distinct meteorological regimes
Steven A. Rutledge, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and W. A. Petersen, R. C. Cifelli, and L. D. Carey

11:17 AM
5B.8
Regulation of Convection Onsets During the 15 December 1992 TOGA COARE mesoscale convective system
Badrinath Nagarajan, McGill Univ., Montreal, PQ, Canada; and M. K. Yau and D. L. Zhang

11:32 AM
5B.6a
Analysis of rainfall and electrification characteristics of MCS during TRMM-LBA in the context of varying environmental regimes (Formerly paper 5B.7)
Jeffrey B. Halverson, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and T. Rickenbach, B. Ferrier, E. Williams, R. N. Ferriera, R. C. Cifelli, and G. Fisch

11:46 AM
5B.7a
Evolution of mesoscale convective systems in contrasting large scale regimes from radar and infrared satellite data during the TRMM-LBA field campaign in RondÔnia, Brazil (Formerly paper 5B.6)
Thomas M. Rickenbach, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. N. Ferreira, J. B. Halverson, and R. C. Cifelli

10:15 AM-11:45 AM: Wednesday, 24 May 2000


Joint Session 2
Ocean Interaction Effects on Tropical Cyclone Intensity II/JASMINE I (Joint with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)
Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere )
Organizer: Pete Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD
10:15 AM
J2.1
A Study of Ocean-atmospheric Interactions over the Gulf of Mexico during Non Cyclonic and Cyclonic Activity
R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS; and R. Guyton and R. L. Miller

10:30 AM
J2.2
How sea spray can affect the intensity of tropical cyclones
Edgar L Andreas, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, NH; and K. A. Emanuel

10:45 AM
J2.3
On the Effect of Sea Spray Evaporation on Tropical Cyclone Boundary-layer Structure and Intensity
Yuqing Wang, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and J. D. Kepert and G. J. Holland

11:00 AM
J2.4
11:15 AM
J2.5
Deep Convection Observed During the May-August 1999 Indian Monsoon
Paquita Zuidema, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. M. Lawrence and P. J. Webster

11:30 AM
J2.6
The northward propagating envelope of convection during JASMINE
David M. Lawrence, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

12:00 PM-1:45 PM: Wednesday, 24 May 2000


Poster Session 1
P1.1
Simulation and analysis of inner-core vorticity mixing with a three-dimensional, nonhydrostatic mesoscale model
Michael T. Montgomery, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and L. D. Grasso and D. S. Nolan

P1.2
Some Aspects of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Todd B. Kimberlain, Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, Colorado

P1.3
Status of the UW-CIMSS Objective Dvorak Technique (ODT)
Timothy L. Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

P1.4
Warm core ocean features in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico
Eric W. Uhlhorn, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. G. Black, L. K. Shay, J. J. Cione, S. D. Jacob, and G. Goni

P1.5
Structure, variability, and forcing of the East Asian Subtropical Jet
Randell J. Barry, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

P1.7
The 1999 Hurricane Season in East Central Florida—Multiple Storms with Multiple Impacts
D. Scott Kelly, NOAA/NWSFO, Melbourne, FL; and M. W. Bragaw and S. M. Spratt

P1.8
Surface wind field during tropical cyclone generation period by satellites
Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and C. Zhu

P1.10
Sea wave activity associated to cold surges over Gulf of Mexico
Ernesto S. Caetano Neto, National Autonomous Univ. of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and R. V. Hernandez and J. L. Vazquez

P1.11
Mesoscale model simulations of gravity waves in a convecting atmosphere
Adam H. Sobel, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. S. Bretherton

P1.13
New Findings on Tibetan Plateau Field Experiment (TIPEX)
Lianshou Chen, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and X. Xu

P1.14
Numerical predictions of rainfall in Hurricane Floyd (1999)
Elizabeth C. Wood, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and W. M. Frank

P1.15
On the role of surface friction in tropical cyclogenesis
Winston C. Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and B. Chen and W. K. Tao

P1.16
Operational use of CIMSS objective dvorak technique
Michael A. Turk, NOAA/NESDIS, Washington, DC

P1.17
The Aerosonde Robotic Aircraft
Greg Tyrrell, Aerosonde Robotic Aircraft Pty Ltd, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and J. Becker and G. J. Holland

P1.18
Three-dimensional, Asymmetric, Nonhydrostatic, Unstable eigenmodes in Initially balanced, hurricane-like vortices
David S. Nolan, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery

P1.19
Trapped-fetch waves in a transitioning tropical cyclone (part II-analytical and predictive model)
Allan W. MacAfee, Canadian Hurricane Centre, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and P. J. Bowyer

P1.20
Trends in global tropical cyclone numbers 1969-1998
F. P. Roberts, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders

P1.21
Tropical Microwave Brightness Temperature Data from AMPR
Frank J. LaFontaine, Raytheon ITSS, Huntsville, AL; and R. E. Hood and A. R. Guillory

P1.22
Updated environmental structure characteristics for southern hemisphere application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting
Grahame Reader, Bureau of Meteorology, Perth, Australia; and M. A. Boothe, R. L. Elsberry, and L. E. Carr III

P1.23
Utility of the WSR-88D Default and Tropical Z/R Relationships over South Texas during Hurricane Bret
Waylon Collins, NOAA/NWS, Corpus Christi, TX; and R. Burton and A. Patrick

P1.25
Three-Dimensional Structure, Scale Interactions, and Moisture Transport in Three Types of Tropical Plumes
Richard D. Knabb, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and H. E. Fuelberg

P1.26
Observations of the boundary layer of Tropical Cyclone Vance
Jeffrey D. Kepert, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and G. J. Holland

P1.27
The first eyewall penetration by the NOAA G-IV aircraft
Michael L. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. B. Damiano and S. R. White

P1.28
The highly asymmetric structure of Hurricane Earl (1998) near landfall
Mark A. Croxford, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and M. L. Black

P1.29
The monsoon as a coupled ocean-atmosphere self-regulating system
Peter J. Webster, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

P1.32
The WWRP/TMRP International Tropical Cyclone Landfall Program (ITCLP)
Greg J. Holland, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

P1.33
P1.34
Effect of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity on peninsular Florida rainfall
Eric Swartz, South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach, Florida; and G. Shaughnessy

P1.35
An investigation of precipitation structures in Hurricane Bonnie
Daniel J. Cecil, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and E. J. Zipser, G. M. Heymsfield, R. E. Hood, and M. G. Bateman

P1.36
An investigation of the structure of Hurricane Danielle (1998) using HRD dropwindsondes
Helga Weindl, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith

P1.37
Are the Beta Gyres Really Normal Modes?
Hugh E. Willoughby, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and R. W. Jones

P1.38
Automated passive microwave tropical cyclone intensity algorithms
Richard L. Bankert, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. M. Tag, J. Sandidge, J. D. Hawkins, and M. J. Helveston

P1.40
Caribbean Sea tropical cyclones variations and tendencies
Maritza Ballester Pérez, Institute of Meteorology, Havana, Cuba; and C. G. Pedroso and R. P. Suárez

P1.41
A tropical cyclone activity seasonal forecast model on the Atlantic basin
Maritza Ballester Pérez, Institute of Meteorology, Havana, Cuba; and C. G. Pedroso and R. P. Suárez

P1.42
P1.43
A comparison of scatterometer-derived wind data over tropical cyclones as determined from ERS-2 and QuickSCAT data
Roger T. Edson, Analysis and Technology, Inc., Magnilao, Guam; and J. D. Hawkins

P1.45
A distributed real-time hurricane wind analysis system
Sonia Otero, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and N. Morisseau-Leroy, N. Carrasco, and M. D. Powell

P1.47
A new era in hurricane reconnaissance: Real time measurement of surface wind structure and intensity via microwave remote sensing
Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. Uhlhorn, M. D. Powell, and J. Carswell

P1.50
Idealized modeling of hurricane-trough interaction: analyses of storm structure and intensification
Jenni L. Evans, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and S. K. Kimball

P1.51
Indian Ocean SST and Indian summer rainfall : Predictive relationships and their decadal variability
Christina O. Clark, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Cole and P. J. Webster

P1.52
Inflow trajectories in a model hurricane
Ian J. Morrison, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger, A. Baerman, R. Draxler, and R. Tuleya

P1.53
Inherent uncertainties in numerical modeling of hurricane intensity
Greg J. Holland, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and Y. Wang

P1.54
P1.55
Intraseasonal and Interannual Modulation of Westerly Wind Bursts
Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES, University of Colorado and NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO

P1.56
Irreversible processes in nature and numerical models
Nilton O. Rennó, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and D. J. Raymond

P1.57
Hydrologic Cycle of the Indo-Asian Monsoon: Part I, The Wet Season
John T. Fasullo, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

P1.58
Detailed surface features associated with Tropical Storm Floyd (1999) at landfall
Kwan-yin Kong, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

P1.59
Maximum substained winds in Hurricane Irene as measured by the Miami WSR-88D
Colin J. McAdie, NOAA/NWS/TPC, Miami, FL; and P. Dodge

P1.60
Ensemble Simulation of Tropical Convection in a Two-Column Model
Xiping Zeng, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond

P1.61
Experimental real-time intraseasonal forecasting of Australian tropical cyclones
Sam Cleland, Bureau of Meteorology, Casuarina, NT, Australia; and P. Bate and C. Landsea

P1.62
Experiments with an adaptive multigrid shallow-water tropical cyclone model
Brittany L. Mitchell, Clarkson Univ., Potsdam, NY; and S. R. Fulton

P1.63
Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Motion near Vietnam using a Nested Barotropic Model
Nguyen Thi Minh Phuong, Monash Univ., Clayton, Vic., Australia; and M. J. Reeder, N. E. Davidson, and M. Adams

P1.64
Gross moist stability in tropical systems
Carlos López-Carrillo, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond

P1.65
A climatology of the extratropical transition of Atlantic tropical cyclones
Robert E. Hart, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans

P1.66
P1.67
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES ON THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF HURRICANE IRENE (1999)
John L. Beven II, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and S. R. Stewart

P1.68
Empirical Modes of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in North Carolina
Lian Xie, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and K. Wu and L. J. Pietrafesa

P1.69
DYNAMICS OVER TROPICAL AFRICA AND ATLANTIC HURRICANES
J. A. Adedoyin, University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana

P1.70

1:45 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 24 May 2000


Session 6A
Tropical cyclone intensity forecasting I (Parallel with Sessions 6B and J3)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Lixion A. Avila, NOAA/NWS/TPC
1:45 PM
6A.1
Hurricane maximum intensity: past and present
J. Parks Camp, NOAA/NWS, Mobile, AL; and M. T. Montgomery

2:00 PM
6A.2
2:15 PM
6A.3
Structure and Motion of Tropical Storms in NCEP s Operational Eta Model
Mukut B. Mathur, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

2:30 PM
6A.4
A case study of tropical cyclone intensity forecast depending on cumulus parameterization
Akihiko Murata, MRI/Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Ueno

2:45 PM
6A.5
Forecast Skill of a Simplified Hurricane Intensity Prediction Model
Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and E. Rappaport

3:00 PM
6A.6
Improvements to the GFDL hurricane forecast system
Robert E. Tuleya, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and M. A. Bender

3:15 PM
6A.7
Further improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme using GOES imagery
Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO; and R. M. Zehr, C. S. Velden, and F. M. Horsfall

1:45 PM-2:45 PM: Wednesday, 24 May 2000


Session 6B
Tropical cyclogenesis I (Parallel with Sessions 6A and J3)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Michael Fiorino, LLNL
1:45 PM
6B.1
An Overview of Large-Scale Influences on Tropical Cyclogenesis
John Molinari, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Vollaro

2:01 PM
6B.3
A Numerical Simulation of the Environmental Momentum Influences on Typhoon Formation
Cheng-shang Lee, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. H. Lee

2:15 PM
6B.4
Numerical simulations of the genesis of hurricane Diana (1984)
Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. F. Bosart

2:31 PM
6B.6
Tropical storm genesis in operational model forecasts: problems and challenges
Hua-Lu Pan, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Q. Liu, S. J. Lord, and S. Y. Hong

2:00 PM-3:29 PM: Wednesday, 24 May 2000


Joint Session 3
JASMINE II (Joint with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmospehere)
Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere )
Organizer: Peter Webster, Univ. of Colorado
2:01 PM
J3.2
Cloud Statistics during JASMINE from 35 GHz Cloud Radar
Michelle N. Ryan, Science & Technology Corporation, Boulder, CO; and T. Uttal

2:30 PM
J3.4
JASMINE observations of upper ocean structure and variability in the Bay of Bengal during the southwest monsoon
Peter Hacker, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and R. Lukas, E. Firing, and J. S. Godfrey

2:45 PM
J3.5
Heat and Freshwater Budgets From Two Intensive Upper Ocean Surveys During JASMINE
Roger Lukas, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and M. Feng and P. Hacker

3:00 PM
J3.6
Air-Sea Flux Measurements in the Bay of Bengal during the JASMINE Field Program
C. W. Fairall, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Hare, A. A. Grachev, and E. F. Bradley

3:15 PM
J3.7
Air-sea interaction in the Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon period
E. Frank Bradley, CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia; and J. S. Godfrey, T. J. Ansell, and M. G. Wells

3:30 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 24 May 2000


Coffee Break

4:00 PM-5:29 PM: Wednesday, 24 May 2000


Session 7A
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting II (Parallel with Sessions 7B and J4)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Miles B. Lawrence, NOAA/NWS/TPC
4:15 PM
7A.2
Midget tropical cyclones in the subtropics
Mark A. Lander, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam

4:30 PM
7A.3
Evaluation of TRMM and SSM/I imagery in the early development of tropical cyclones
Roger T. Edson, Analysis and Technology, Inc., Magnilao, Guam

5:00 PM
7A.5
5:16 PM
7A.7
A prototype real-time wind and wave forecasting system for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin
John L. Guiney, NOAA/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and H. Graber, V. J. Cardone, R. E. Jensen, M. D. Powell, and P. G. Black

4:00 PM-5:15 PM: Wednesday, 24 May 2000


Session 7B
Tropical Cyclogenesis II (Parallel with Sessions 7A and J4)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: John E. Molinari, SUNY
4:00 PM
7B.1
Tropical cyclogenesis and stable isotope ratios of water
James R. Lawrence, Univ. of Houston, Houston, TX; and S. D. Gedzelman and J. Gamache

4:15 PM
7B.2
Mesoscale analysis of a formation process of Typhoon REX(T9804) from research vessel Keifu Maru radar observations
Kazumasa Mori, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and T. Maehira, T. Mizuno, C. Nara, and H. Sakakibara

4:30 PM
7B.3
The role of easterly waves in the formation of East Pacific tropical cyclone precursors
Luis M. Farfán, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and J. A. Zehnder

4:45 PM
7B.4
5:00 PM
7B.5
3D alignment and co-rotation of Weak, TC-Like Vortices Via Linear Vortex Rossby Waves
Paul D. Reasor, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 24 May 2000


Joint Session 4
Influence of air-sea interactions on monsoon development, variability and predictability (Joint Session with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)
Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere )
Organizer: Victor Magana, National Autonomous Univ. of Mexico
4:00 PM
J4.1
Relationships between Northern Gulf of California Sea Surface Temperatures and Arizona Summer Rainfall
David L. Mitchell, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. Ivanova, R. Rabin, and K. Redmond

4:15 PM
J4.2
4:30 PM
J4.3
Mechanisms of the ENSO-Monsoon Interaction During Mature-Decay Phase of ENSO Cycle
Bin Wang, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and R. Wu and X. Fu

4:45 PM
J4.4
Intraseasonal Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Interaction during Northern Summer
Huang-Hsiung Hsu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. H. Weng

5:00 PM
J4.5
Annual cycle and interannual variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon system
Michio Yanai, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and X. Liu

5:15 PM
J4.6
The role of SST on the Asian summer monsoon circulation
P. L. S. Rao, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, India

5:30 PM
J4.7
Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of the Indian Ocean
Galina Chirokova, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

5:45 PM
J4.8

6:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 24 May 2000


Sessions End For The Day

Thursday, 25 May 2000

7:00 AM-7:00 AM: Thursday, 25 May 2000


WED 31 MAY

8:00 AM-9:44 AM: Thursday, 25 May 2000


Session 8A
Tropical cyclones at landfall I (Parallel with Sessions 8B and J5)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Frank Marks, NOAA/AOML/HRD
8:00 AM
8A.1
The sensitivity of landfalling tropical cyclone tracks and intensity to Indian Ocean SST anomalies
Robert F. Abbey Jr., ONR, Arlington, VA; and L. M. Leslie and L. Qi

8:15 AM
8A.2
Evolution of Typhoon Zeb (1998) in a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model
Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. H. Chou

8:30 AM
8A.3
Tropical cyclone landfall along the South China Coast
Simon E. Ching, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan and E. S. T. Lai

8:46 AM
8A.5
A Study on Sudden Intensification of Typhoon Sam at Hongkong coast area
Jizhi Wang, National Meteorological Center of China, Beijing, China; and G. Zhang and Y. Yang

9:00 AM
8A.6
Interaction of a tropical depression with Taiwan topography and its Impacts on Producing Heavy Orographic Rainfall
Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Chiao, T. A. Wang, B. W. Shen, G. Lai, C. P. Pu, and C. W. Lee

9:15 AM
8A.7
9:30 AM
8A.8
Effects of Surface Water over Land on Landfalling Hurricanes: A Numerical Investigation with the GFDL Hurricane Model
Weixing Shen, Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis and R. E. Tuleya

8:00 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 25 May 2000


Session 8B
Extratropical transition I (Parallel with Sessions 8A and J5)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Patrick Harr, NPS
8:00 AM
8B.1
Extratropical transitions: Large-scale aspects
Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and E. H. Atallah

8:15 AM
8B.2
8:30 AM
8B.3
Stable Isotope Ratios and the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones
Stanley David Gedzelman, City College of New York, New York, NY; and J. R. Lawrence

8:45 AM
8B.4
Extratropical transition of Typhoon Vicki (9807)
Naoko Kitabatake, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

9:00 AM
8B.5
A composite study of Extratropical Transformation in the western North Atlantic Ocean, 1963-1996
John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and C. T. Fogarty

9:15 AM
8B.6
Trapped-fetch waves in a transitioning tropical cyclone (part I—the need and the theory)
Allan W. MacAfee, Canadian Hurricane Centre, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and P. J. Bowyer

9:30 AM
8B.7
Phenomenal waves with a transitioning tropical cyclone (Luis, the Queen, and the Buoys)
Peter J. Bowyer, Canadian Hurricane Centre, Dartmouth, NS, Canada

8:00 AM-8:15 AM: Thursday, 25 May 2000


Joint Session 5
Debate: "Is There Skill in Forecasting El Nino and La Nina Events?" (Joint with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)
Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere )
8:00 AM
J5.1
Write-up of Debate
D. Enfield, R. Livezey, J. Knaff,

9:45 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 25 May 2000


Coffee Break

10:15 AM-12:30 PM: Thursday, 25 May 2000


Session 9A
Tropical Cyclone at Landfall II (Parallel with Sessions 9B and J6)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Mark Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD
10:30 AM
9A.2
WSR-88D Derived Rainfall Distributions in Hurricane Danny (1997)
Frank D. Marks Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. Selevan and J. Gamache

10:45 AM
9A.3
Examining the pre-landfall environment of Mesovortices within a hurricane Bonnie (1998) Outer Rainband
Scott M. Spratt, NOAA/NWSFO, Melbourne, FL; and F. D. Marks Jr., P. P. Dodge, and D. W. Sharp

11:00 AM
9A.4
Dual-doppler analyses of mesovortices in a hurricane rainband
Peter Dodge, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. Spratt, F. D. Marks, Jr., D. Sharp, and J. Gamache

11:15 AM
9A.5
11:30 AM
9A.6
Case studies of tornadoes associated with tropical cyclones based on conventional and WSR-88D data
Gandikota V. Rao, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and R. Edwards and J. Scheck

11:45 AM
9A.7
An Examination of a Tornadic Mesocyclone Associated with Tropical Storm Mitch in the Upper Keys of Florida
Dan J. Grams, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and R. E. Peterson

12:15 PM
9A.9
Evaluating the GBVTD-tropical center finding simplex algorithm
Shirley T. Murillo, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and W. C. Lee and F. D. Marks

10:15 AM-11:45 AM: Thursday, 25 May 2000


Session 9B
Extratropical Transition II (Parallel with Sessions 9A and J6)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Lance Bosart, SUNY
10:15 AM
9B.1
Mesoscale features of diverging strong winds associated with a typhoon in extratropical transition
Hitoshi Sakakibara, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and F. Fujibe, N. Kitabatake, Y. Tanaka, and K. Bessho

10:45 AM
9B.3
The longevity of tropical-cyclone vortices after extratropical transition
Sarah C. Jones, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and C. Thorncroft

11:00 AM
9B.4
Sensitivity testing of Hurricane Earl's extratropical transformaion using PV inversions to modify initial conditions
Ron McTaggart-Cowan, McGill University, Monteal, PQ, Canada; and M. K. Yau and J. R. Gyakum

11:15 AM
9B.5
Simulations of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones
Elizabeth A. Ritchie, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry

11:30 AM
9B.6

10:15 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 25 May 2000


Joint Session 6
Predictability of the tropical atmosphere-ocean system on seasonal timescales (Joint with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)
Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere )
Organizer: Bin Wang, Univ. of Hawaii
10:15 AM
J6.1
Air-sea feedbacks in the western Pacific using a coupled single-column model
Carol Anne Clayson, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and A. Chen

10:30 AM
J6.2
A unified theory for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation
Chunzai Wang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL

10:45 AM
J6.3
A Generalized Canonical Mixed Regression Model for ENSO Prediction with Its Experiment
Zhihong Jiang, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, China; and S. Neng and D. Yuguo

11:00 AM
J6.4
How much "skill" was there in forecasting the strong 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-2000 La Nina events?
Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. A. Knaff

11:15 AM
J6.5
Multi-model superensemble forecasts for Weather and seasonal climate
T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, Z. Zhang, T. LaRow, D. R. Bachiochi, C. E. Williford, S. Gadgil, and S. Surendran

11:30 AM
J6.6
A Poisson generalised linear model for the extended range forecasting of seasonal typhoon numbers
F. P. Roberts, Univ. College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom

12:00 PM-1:15 PM: Thursday, 25 May 2000


Lunch Break

1:15 PM-3:15 PM: Thursday, 25 May 2000


Session 10A
Tropical Cyclone at Landfall III (Parallel with Sessions 10B and J7)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Clark Rowley, FNMOC
1:15 PM
10A.1
Accuracy of U.S. Hurricane Landfall forecasts in the Atlantic basin 1976–1998
Mark D. Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. D. Aberson

1:30 PM
10A.2
Hurricane directional wave spectrum spatial variation at landfall
Edward J. Walsh, NASA/GSFC, Wallops Island, VA; and C. W. Wright, D. C. Vandemark, W. B. Krabill, A. W. Garcia, S. H. Houston, M. D. Powell, P. G. Black, and F. D. Marks Jr.

1:45 PM
10A.3
2:00 PM
10A.4
Hurricane Bret: A major hurricane landfall in south Texas
Shawn P. Bennett, NOAA/NWS, Brownsville, TX; and A. Patrick

2:45 PM
10A.7
Doppler Profiler Observations of the Boundary Layer within the Eyewall of Hurricane Georges during Landfall
Kevin R. Knupp, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. Walters and E. W. McCaul Jr.

3:00 PM
10A.8
Surface winds in hurricanes from GPS-sondes: Comparisons with observations
Sam H. Houston, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. P. Dodge, M. D. Powell, M. L. Black, G. M. Barnes, and P. S. Chu

1:15 PM-2:45 PM: Thursday, 25 May 2000


Session 10B
Convective parameterization (Parallel with Sessions 10A and J7)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Nilton Renno, Univ. of Arizona
1:15 PM
10B.1
Remarks on Arakawa-Schubert's Quasi-Equilibrium theory
David K. Adams, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and N. O. Rennó

1:31 PM
10B.3
Impact of the cumulus-scale effects in a mesoscale convection resolving model
Tomoe Nasuno, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; and M. Yamasaki

1:46 PM
10B.4
COARE simulations with the mesoscale model MM5: various sensitivities to physical parameterizations
Françoise Guichard, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologique and NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Dudhia and D. Parsons

2:01 PM
10B.5
Implementing the vigor of convection and the ambient wind shear into the CSU GCM
Xin Lin, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall and L. D. Fowler

2:31 PM
10B.7
The role of cumulus schemes in the reproducibility of tropical cyclones by the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3)
Junichi Tsutsui, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan; and A. Kasahara

1:15 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 25 May 2000


Joint Session 7
Atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers in tropical cyclones I (Joint Session with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)
Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere )
Organizer: Joe Cione, NOAA/AOML/HRD
1:15 PM
J7.1
A Smart Balloon Designed to Investigate Hurricane Inflow Energetics
Steven Businger, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes, R. Johnson, and J. A. Businger

1:30 PM
J7.2
Analysis Of a Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer Database Against MM5 Model Simulations
Pat J. Fitzpatrick, Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS; and Y. Li and R. Mahecha

1:45 PM
J7.3
Large eddy simulations of the hurricane boundary layer
Shouping Wang, USRA, Huntsville, AL; and E. W. McCaul Jr. and K. R. Knupp

2:00 PM
J7.4
Development of an over-water gust factor model for hurricane conditions
Craig A. Miller, Risk Management Solutions Ltd, London, United Kingdom

2:15 PM
J7.5
Comparison of Gust Factor Data from Hurricanes
Mark R. Conder, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and R. E. Peterson

2:30 PM
J7.6
A numerical study of the Gulf Stream response to hurricanes
Sergey A. Frolov, Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis

2:45 PM
J7.7
Sea surface salinity reduction in the upper ocean induced by tropical cyclones
Vladimir Pudov, Institute of Experimental Meteorology, Obninsk, Russia; and I. Ginis

3:00 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 25 May 2000


Coffee Break

3:30 PM-5:15 PM: Thursday, 25 May 2000


Session 11A
CAMEX (Parallel with Sessions 11B and J8)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Robbie E. Hood, Global Hydrology and Climate Center
3:30 PM
11A.1
Passive microwave observations of Hurricanes during CAMEX-3
Robbie E. Hood, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and E. A. Smith, F. J. LaFontaine, and A. R. Guillory

3:45 PM
11A.2
The Modification of the Water Vapor Profile during the Passage of a Tropical System
Allison G. Schauer, NASA/GSFC, Wallops Island, VA; and F. J. Schmidlin

4:00 PM
11A.3
Hurricane wind field measurements with scanning airborne Doppler lidar during CAMEX-3
Jeffry Rothermel, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and D. R. Cutten, J. N. Howell, L. S. Darby, R. M. Hardesty, D. M. Tratt, and R. T. Menzies

4:15 PM
11A.4
Hurricane Bonnie Landfalling Observed From ER-2 doppler radar on 26 August 1998 During CAMEX-3
Gerald M. Heymsfield, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. B. Halverson, L. Tian, and B. Geerts

4:30 PM
11A.5
Entrainment of Upper Level Dry Air Into Hurricane Earl
Anthony R. Guillory, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and G. J. Jedlovec, R. E. Hood, R. J. Atkinson, and F. J. LaFontaine

4:45 PM
11A.6
Lidar simulations over hurricane Bonnie using CAMEX-3 data, a Lidar simulation model and numerical model anaylses
Steven Greco, Simpson Weather Associates, Charlottesville, VA; and S. A. Wood, G. D. Emmitt, M. Nicholls, and R. A. Pielke Sr.

5:00 PM
11A.7
An investigation of the impact of including CAMEX-3 data on high resolution Hurricane Bonnie simulations
Melville E. Nicholls, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Pielke Sr., S. Greco, and C. D. Emmitt

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 25 May 2000


Session 11B
North African monsoon (Parallel with Sessions 11A and J8) [This session is dedicated to the memory of Prof. Fongang, Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphère]
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: John Fasullo, Univ. of Colorado
3:30 PM
11B.1
The West African monsoon onset and intra-seasonal variability
Serge Janicot, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau, France; and B. X. Sultan

3:45 PM
11B.2
Water cycle and mesoscale convective systems over West Africa
Siméon Fongang, Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphère, Dakar, Senegal; and S. M. Sall, F. K. Panda, J. Citeau, A. Gaye, and D. Badiane

4:00 PM
11B.3
Sensitivity of the West African Monsoon to Atlantic SST Anomalies
Edward K Vizy, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and K. H. Cook

4:15 PM
11B.4
Recent trend in weather forecasting in West Africa using satellite imageries and global models
Sam Gbuyiro, Federal Department of Meteorology, Lagos, Nigeria

4:30 PM
11B.5
Assessment the 1999 Sahel summer rains and seasonal forecast verifications
Wassila M. Thiaw, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Washington, DC; and G. Bell and A. G. Barnston

4:45 PM
11B.6
Relationship between East African coastal rainfall and Indian Ocean SST
Christina O. Clark, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster and J. E. Cole

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 25 May 2000


Joint Session 8
Atmospheric & Oceanic Boundary Layers on Tropical Cyclones II (Joint with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)
Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere )
Organizer: Nick Shay, Univ. of Miami, RSMAS
3:30 PM
J8.1
Tropical cyclone boundary layer wind variability
Mark D. Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and T. A. Reinhold and R. D. Marshall

3:45 PM
J8.2
High Surface Winds in Tropical Cyclones: Boundary-Layer Models vs. Dropsonde Observations
Lixin Zeng, E.W. Blanch Co., Minneapolis, MN; and R. A. Brown

4:00 PM
J8.3
Inflow Layer Energetics of Hurricane Bonnie near Landfall
Derek R. Wroe, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes

4:15 PM
J8.4
Turbulence in the Ocean Boundary Layer Below Hurricane Dennis
Eric A. D'Asaro, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and P. G. Black

4:30 PM
J8.5
Response of the Coastal Ocean to Hurricanes Floyd and Irene at the South Florida Ocean Measurement Center
Alexander V. Soloviev, Nova Southeastern Univ., Dania Beach, FL; and R. H. Weisberg and M. E. Luther

4:45 PM
J8.6
Upper Ocean Response to Hurricane Wind Asymmetries
S. Daniel Jacob, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, P. G. Black, and S. H. Houston

5:00 PM
J8.7
Coupled Air-Sea Interactions During Hurricane Bonnie
Thomas M. Cook, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, P. G. Black, G. J. Goni, M. M. Huber, S. D. Jacob, and J. J. Cione

5:15 PM
J8.8
Atmospheric boundary layer and upper ocean structure observed in Hurricane Erika (1997)
Joseph J. Cione, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn and P. G. Black

5:30 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 25 May 2000


Sessions End For The Day

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Thursday, 25 May 2000


Session 11C
Conference Banquet, Speaker: Peter Davies
Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere )
7:00 PM
11C.1
Biography of Banquet Speaker
Peter Davies, Author, West Yorkshire, United Kingdom

Friday, 26 May 2000

7:00 AM-7:00 AM: Friday, 26 May 2000


THUR 1 JUNE

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 26 May 2000


Session 12A
Tropical cyclone structure I (Parallel with Sessions 12B and 12C)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Hugh E. Willoughby, NOAA/AOML/HRD
8:00 AM
12A.1
Dynamically-Induced Vertical Motion in Hurricane's Inner-Core regions
Da-Lin Zhang, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and Y. Liu and M. K. Yau

8:15 AM
12A.2
Boundary layer structure and dynamics beneath a translating tropical cyclone
Jeffrey D. Kepert, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and Y. Wang

8:45 AM
12A.4
Vortex Rossby Waves and vorticity mixing in a MM5 simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991)
John D. Fulton, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery and S. Braun

9:00 AM
12A.5
9:15 AM
12A.6
Polygonal eye-walls in barotropic, hurricane-like vortices
Harry C. Weber, University of Munich, Munich, Germany

9:30 AM
12A.7
**Observational Evidence for Horizontal Mixing in the Hurricane Near-Core
James P. Kossin, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

9:45 AM
12A.8
Synoptic Structure and evolution of a kona low
Ian J. Morrison, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger


Session 12B
Tropical cyclone track forecasting I (Parallel with Sessions 12A and 12C)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Les Carr, NPS
8:00 AM
12B.1
Evaluation of Dynamical Track Predictions for Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific: Extensions to Other Years and Dynamical Models
George M. Dunnavan, NPS, Monterey, CA; and L. E. Carr III, R. L. Elsberry, and M. A. Boothe

8:30 AM
12B.3
Performance of the Typhoon Forecast System of the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan
K.-N. Huang, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and T. C. Yeh, D. S. Chen, and M. S. Peng

8:45 AM
12B.4
A review of the UK Met. Office global model tropical cyclone forecasting performance 1990–2000
Julian T. Heming, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom

9:00 AM
12B.5
Evaluation of dynamical track predictions for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic during 1995–98
David S. Brown, NPS, Monterey, CA; and M. A. Boothe, L. E. Carr III, and R. L. Elsberry

9:15 AM
12B.6
Comparison of the performance of the GFDL hurricane model, using the AVN, UKMET and NOGAPS analysis
Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and J. T. Heming and R. Stocker

9:30 AM
12B.7
An Analysis of the Track and Intensity Errors of Operational Global and Regional Models
Timothy P. Marchok, NOAA/GFDL, NWS/NCEP, and SAIC, Princeton, NJ; and R. E. Tuleya and S. J. Lord

9:45 AM
12B.8
Geographic distribution of hurricane model track forecast errors
Jeremy T. Pennington, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

8:00 AM-9:45 AM: Friday, 26 May 2000


Session 12C
Monsoons and the intertropical convergenze zone I (Parallel with Sessions 12A and 12B)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Harry Hendon, NOAA/CDC
8:00 AM
12C.1
Relationship between the South Asian Summer Monsoon and Rainfall Anomalies Associated with the East Asia summer monsoon
Jianjun Xu, City Univ. of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan

8:15 AM
12C.2
8:30 AM
12C.3
Hydrologic Cycle of the Indo-Asian Monsoon part II: Interannual Variability
John T. Fasullo, PAOS/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

8:45 AM
12C.4
9:00 AM
12C.5
Double ITCZs
Chidong Zhang, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL

9:15 AM
12C.6
The Deformation of Large Cloud Disturbance on Western Tropical Pacific
Atsushi Hamada, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; and N. Nishi and H. Kida

9:30 AM
12C.7
Real-Time Mesoscale Numerical Simulations in Support of Astronomical Operations at Mauna Kea Observatories
Richard D. Knabb, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and R. McLaren, J. Tonry, R. Wainscoat, S. Businger, R. Ogasawara, D. Simons, and M. Mountain

9:45 AM-9:45 AM: Friday, 26 May 2000


Coffee Break

10:15 AM-12:15 PM: Friday, 26 May 2000


Session 13A
Tropical Cyclones Structure II (Parallel with Sessions 13B and 13C)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Michael Black, NOAA/AOMA/HRD
10:15 AM
13A.1
A numerical study of the distribution of precipitation in Hurricane Bonnie (1998)
Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen, J. E. Tenerelli, and M. Lonfat

10:30 AM
13A.2
**Convective asymmetries in tropical cyclones
Kristen L. Corbosiero, SUNY, Albany, NY

11:00 AM
13A.4
The Eyewall of Category 1 Hurricane Paine near Landfall
Sean K. Daida, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes

11:15 AM
13A.5
Radial variation of azimuthally averaged flow across the hurricane core as observed with airborne Doppler Radar
John F. Gamache, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. L. Black and H. E. Willoughby

11:30 AM
13A.6
Surface winds in hurricane Floyd: a comparison numerical simulations, aircraft, and QuikScat satellite data
Joseph E. Tenerelli, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen, R. Foster, M. Lonfat, W. T. Liu, and R. Rogers

11:45 AM
13A.7
12:00 PM
13A.8
An experimental examination of hurricane mesovortices: Flow apparatus and particle image velocimetry measurements
Michael T. Montgomery, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and V. A. Vladimirov and P. V. Denissenko


Session 13C
Monsoons and the Intertropical Convergence Zone II (Parallel with Sessions 13A and 13B)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: David Raymond, New Mexico Tech
10:15 AM
13C.1
On the Origin of Monsoon
Winston C. Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and B. Chen

10:30 AM
13C.2
Large-scale precipitation and latent heating distributions in the Tropics derived from satellite-borne passive and active microwave sensors
William S. Olson, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and Y. Hong, S. Yang, C. D. Kummerow, and W. K. Tao

10:45 AM
13C.3
The Cross-Equatorial Hadley Circulation of the Eastern Pacific
Manuel Rodríguez-Achach, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond, L. Hartten, and K. S. Gage

11:00 AM
13C.4
Distortion of the Pacific ITCZ by the American landmass
Brian E. Mapes, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. T. Warner and M. Xu

11:15 AM
13C.5
Formation of a Northward Displaced ITCZ in a Hybrid Coupled AGCM
Shang-Ping Xie, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and K. Saito, H. Okajima, and A. Numaguti

11:30 AM
13C.6
**Diurnal Variability and Energetics of the North American Monsoon
Connie M. Klimczak, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

11:45 AM
13C.7
Dynamical features associated with 4–8 day variability in the OLR in the east Pacific Oceans
Robert A. Tomas, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

12:00 PM
13C.8
Idealized simulations of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone
Edward Colón, Howard University, Washington, DC; and R. N. Ferreira and M. J. Suarez

10:30 AM-11:59 AM: Friday, 26 May 2000


Session 13B
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting II (Parallel with Sessions 13A and 13C)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL
10:30 AM
13B.1
An Initialization Scheme for a Hurricane Prediction System
Houjun Wang, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and W. M. Frank

10:45 AM
13B.3
PV diagnostics of the impact of model initialization on the performance of a typhoon prediction system
Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and T. S. Huang, K. N. Huang, and T. C. Yeh

11:00 AM
13B.4
Two initialisation (bogussing) techniques used at Meteo-France to improve tropical cyclone tracks forecasting
Isabelle Soulan, Météo-France, Université de La Réunion, Sainte Clotilde, Réunion, France; and J. M. Willemet, M. Bessafi, and R. El Khatib

11:15 AM
13B.5
Regionally bred modes and ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone motion
Kevin K. W. Cheung, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China

11:45 AM
13B.7

12:15 PM-12:15 PM: Friday, 26 May 2000


Lunch Break

1:15 PM-3:00 PM: Friday, 26 May 2000


Session 14A
Tropical Cyclone Structure III (Parallel with Sessions 14B and 14C)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Robert Burpee
1:15 PM
14A.1
Eyewall Wind Profiles in Hurricanes Determined by GPS Dropwindsondes
James L. Franklin, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and M. L. Black and K. Valde

1:30 PM
14A.2
1:45 PM
14A.3
The asymmetric wind structure of tropical cyclones in various shear environments
Steven E. Feuer, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. L. Black and J. L. Franklin

2:00 PM
14A.4
**Hurricane radial wind profiles derived from GPS dropwindsonde data
Robert N. LeeJoice, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

2:15 PM
14A.5
**Evaluation of Buoyant Motions within the Hurricane Inner Core
Matthew D. Eastin, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

2:30 PM
14A.6
The structure of Hurricane Irene over South Florida
Jack R. Parrish, NOAA/Aircraft Operations Center, MacDill AFB, FL; and M. L. Black, S. H. Houston, P. P. Dodge, and J. J. Cione

2:45 PM
14A.7
Mesoscale Convective Influences On the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Irene (1999)
John L. Beven II, NOAA/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and S. R. Stewart


Session 14B
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting III (Parallel with Sessions 14A and 14C)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Russell Elsberry, NPS
1:15 PM
14B.1
Numerical Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998) Using the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit Derived Winds
Tong Zhu, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. L. Zhang and F. Weng

1:30 PM
14B.2
Steering dynamics of hurricanes based on satellite-derived far-field winds
Flavio Noca, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and C. S. Velden

1:45 PM
14B.3
Statistical post-processing of ECMWF tropical cyclone track forecasts
Mark A. Boothe, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry

2:00 PM
14B.4
Hurricane surgery in global model forecast fields
Qingfu Liu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. J. Lord, J. C. Derber, and H. L. Pan

2:15 PM
14B.5
Occurrences of Binary Tropical Cyclone and their characteristc track-modes in the western north pacific
Suguru Ishijima, Univ. of the Ryukyus, Nishihara, Okinawa, Japan; and N. Servando

2:45 PM
14B.7
Interaction of binary tropical storms in a idealized background flow
Mitia Frumin, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel; and A. P. Khain, I. Ginis, and A. I. Falkovich

1:15 PM-2:45 PM: Friday, 26 May 2000


Session 14C
Tropical cyclone climate variability and climate change (Parallel with Sessions 14A and 14B)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Mark Saunders, Univ. College of London
1:15 PM
14C.1
Interdecadal variability in Queensland tropical cyclone occurrence
Andrew P. Grant, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic., Australia; and K. J. E. Walsh

1:30 PM
14C.2
**Long-Term Trends in North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity
Todd B. Kimberlain, Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO

1:45 PM
14C.3
Changes in the rates of North Atlantic major hurricane activity during the 20th century
J. B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. Jagger and X. Niu

2:00 PM
14C.4
Multiply-nested simulations of the poleward extent of tropical cyclones
Kevin J. E. Walsh, CSIRO, Aspendale, Vic., Australia; and K. C. Nguyen

2:15 PM
14C.5
Influence of greenhouse warming on tropical cyclone frequency, part II
Jun Yoshimura, Frontier Research System for Global Change, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Sugi and A. Noda

2:30 PM
14C.6
Impact of CO2-induced warming on hurricane intensities as simulated in a hurricane model with ocean coupling
Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. E. Tuleya, W. Shen, and I. Ginis

3:00 PM-3:00 PM: Friday, 26 May 2000


Coffee Break

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Friday, 26 May 2000


Session 15A
Tropical Cyclone Structure IV (Parallel with Sessions 15B and 15C)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Chris Velden, Univ. of Wisconsin
3:30 PM
15A.1
A Study of the Rain Distribution in Tropical Cyclones Using TRMM/TMI
Manuel Lonfat, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and F. D. Marks Jr. and S. S. Chen

3:45 PM
15A.2
Structure of tropical clouds and precipitation as inferred from TRMM data
Guosheng Liu, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. A. Curry and W. B. Rossow

4:00 PM
15A.3
Multi-satellite tropical cyclone structure (SSM/I & TMI)
Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. F. Lee, F. J. Turk, K. L. Richardson, C. Sampson, and J. Kent

4:15 PM
15A.4
An objective method for estimating tropical cyclone intensity and structure from NOAA-15 Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU) data
Julie L. Demuth, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, J. A. Knaff, and T. H. Voner Haar

4:30 PM
15A.5
Tropical Cyclone Research using Large Infrared Image Data Sets
Raymond M. Zehr, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO

4:45 PM
15A.6
Use surface adjusted GOES low-level cloud-drift winds to improve the estimation of tropical cyclone outer wind radii
Jason P. Dunion, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. H. Houston, M. D. Powell, C. S. Velden, and P. G. Black

5:00 PM
15A.7
Validation of QuikScat Tropical Cyclone Winds
Deborah Smith, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and C. Mears, C. Gentemann, and F. Wentz

5:15 PM
15A.8
Relationships Between The Multi-Layered Wind Field And The Intensity Of Hurricane Floyd
John A. Knaff, NOAA and CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. S. Velden

3:30 PM-5:15 PM: Friday, 26 May 2000


Session 15B
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting IV (Parallel with Sessions 15A and 15C)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Julian Heming, UK Met Office
3:30 PM
15B.1
Australian REID CLIPER
Russel P. Morison, Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie

3:45 PM
15B.2
4:00 PM
15B.3
4:30 PM
15B.5
MOCCANA performance and comparison with CLIPPER model
Miloud Bessafi, Université de La Réunion, Sainte Clotilde, La Reunion, France; and A. Lasserre-Bigorry

4:45 PM
15B.6
5:00 PM
15B.7
Developing a Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting expert system-2: Results of a real-time prototype test
Lester E. Carr III, NPS, Monterey, CA; and G. M. Dunnavan, R. L. Elsberry, M. A. Boothe, and P. A. Harr

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Friday, 26 May 2000


Session 15C
Convective processes I (Parallel with Sessions 15A and 15B)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Christopher Bretherton, Univ. of Washington
3:30 PM
15C.1
Radiative-Convective Processes in Regulating Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere
C.-H. Sui, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and K. M. Lau, X. Li, and C. H. Ho

3:45 PM
15C.2
Cloud-Radiation Interactions and Convective Forcing
David J. Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and C. Lopez-Carillo

4:00 PM
15C.3
**Moisture interchange between clouds and environment in a tropical atmosphere
Carlos Lopez-Carrillo, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM

4:15 PM
15C.4
Large-scale interactions among clouds, surface fluxes, and the tropical ocean mixed layer
Carol Anne Clayson, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and J. A. Curry, R. Reeder, and G. Liu

4:30 PM
15C.5
A study of 2–3 day convective processes in the tropical western Pacific warm pool
Brian Strahl, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and C. A. Clayson and J. Schrage

4:45 PM
15C.6
Cloud-resolving and single column model simulations of a Dry Intrusion observed during toga-coare
Jean-Luc Redelsperger, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and D. Parsons and F. Guichard

5:00 PM
15C.7
Convective momentum transport in the tropics: What can budget studies tell us?
Matthew T. Carr, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. S. Bretherton

5:15 PM
15C.8
Convective heating and momentum transport associated with tropical disturbances
Wen-wen Tung, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and M. Yanai

7:30 PM-9:30 PM: Friday, 26 May 2000


Session
7:30 PM
Write-up of panel discussion
Gary Barnes, Moderator - University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI

Saturday, 27 May 2000

7:00 AM-7:00 AM: Saturday, 27 May 2000


FRI 2 JUNE

8:15 AM-9:59 AM: Saturday, 27 May 2000


Session 16B
Convective Processes II (Parallel with Sessions 16A and 16C)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: C. H. Sui, NASA/GSFC
8:15 AM
16B.1
Convective/stratiform rain behavior from TRMM
Song Yang, JCET/Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and C. D. Kummerow, E. A. Smith, B. Olson, and Y. Hong

8:30 AM
16B.2
Vertical profiles of tropical convection as observed by the TRMM satellite
Walter A. Petersen, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Rutledge, R. C. Cifelli, and L. D. Carey

8:45 AM
16B.3
9:00 AM
16B.4
Combined wind profiler/polarimetric radar studies of the vertical motion, thermodynamic and microphysical characteristics of tropical thunderstorms
Peter T. May, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and C. Lucas, I. M. Reid, P. E. Johnston, A. R. Jameson, and T. D. Keenan

9:16 AM
16B.6
9:30 AM
16B.7
Tropical cyclone lightning distribution and its relationship to convection and intensity change
Edward Rodgers, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Wienman, H. Pierce, and W. Olson

9:45 AM
16B.8
An anthology of tropical convection: A survey of convective-dynamic synergies
Peter J. Webster, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Curry and R. Tomas

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 27 May 2000


Session 16C
Historical tropical cyclones (Parallel with Sessions 16A and 16B)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Sam Houston, NOAA/AOML/HRD
8:30 AM
16C.1
The Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-Analysis Project: Results for 1851–1885
Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. Anderson, N. Charles, G. Clark, J. Fernandez-Partagas, P. Hungerford, C. Neumann, and M. Zimmer

8:45 AM
16C.2
Re-analysis of The Gale of ‘78—Storm 9 of the 1878 Hurricane Season
David M. Roth, NOAA/NWS/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD; and H. D. Cobb III

9:00 AM
16C.3
Reconstruction of the 1893 New York City hurricane from meteorological and archeological records—Implications for the future
Nicholas K. Coch, Queens College, City University of New York, Flushing, NY; and B. Jarvinen

9:15 AM
16C.4
The North Florida Hurricane of 29 September 1896, a Historical Case of Extreme Inland High Winds
Al Sandrik, NOAA/NWS, Jacksonville, FL; and C. Landsea and B. Jarvinen

9:30 AM
16C.5
9:45 AM
16C.6

9:00 AM-9:43 AM: Saturday, 27 May 2000


Session 16A
Operational forecasting of tropical cyclones (Parallel with Sessions 16B and 16C)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Max Mayfield, NOAA/NWS/TPC/National Hurricane Center
9:02 AM
16A.3
Forecasting difficulties during the 1999 hurricane season
Lixion A. Avila, NOAA/NHC, Miami, FL

10:00 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 27 May 2000


Coffee Break

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Saturday, 27 May 2000


Session 17A
Societal impacts and stresses (Parallel with Sessions 17B and 17C)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Richard J. Murnane, Bermuda Biological Station for Research, Inc.
10:30 AM
17A.1
Tropical cyclone hazard assessment in the Northwest Pacific
E. Rauch, Geoscience Research Group, Munich, Germany

11:00 AM
17A.3
A stochastic, "basin-wide" model of Atlantic hurricanes
Michael Drayton, Risk Management Solutions Ltd., London, United Kingdom

11:15 AM
17A.4
Trends in the ratio of damage to deaths caused by United States landfalling hurricanes
Chris C. Robbins, NOAA/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and J. Gross

11:30 AM
17A.5
Hurricane vulnerability and changes in vulnerability for coastal counties in the United States from 1961 to 1991
David Whitehead, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner

11:45 AM
17A.6
Costs and Benefits of Hurricane forecasting
Hugh E. Willoughby, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL

12:00 PM
17A.7
Business Case for the National Hurricane Center
Jerry D. Jarrell, Polk City, FL; and K. F. Williams

10:30 AM-12:30 PM: Saturday, 27 May 2000


Session 17B
Convective Processes III (Parallel with Sessions 17A and 17C)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Brian Mapes, NOAA/CIRES/CDC
10:45 AM
17B.2
Potential vorticity in a moist atmosphere
Wayne H. Schubert, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Hausman, M. Garcia, K. V. Ooyama, and H. C. Kuo

11:00 AM
17B.3
11:30 AM
17B.5
Mean field theory for tropical precipitation
Adam H. Sobel, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. S. Bretherton

11:45 AM
17B.6
Atmospheric convection as an irreversible heat engine
Nilton O. Rennó, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

12:00 PM
17B.7
Simulation of deep tropical clouds using a spectral microphysics cloud model HUCM
Alexander P. Khain, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel; and A. Pokrovsky and M. Pinsky

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Saturday, 27 May 2000


Session 17C
SCSMEX (Parallel with Sessions 17A and 17B)
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Organizer: Huang-Hsiung Hsu, National Taiwan Univ.
10:30 AM
17C.1
Mechanisms responsible for the maintenance of the 1998 South China Sea Summer Monsoon
Wanxiu Ai, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan, Y. Wang, and J. Xu

10:45 AM
17C.2
Monsoon Characteristics Observed during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment
Paul A. Kucera, Univ. of Iowa, Iowa City, IA; and R. C. Cifelli, T. M. Rickenbach, T. D. Keenan, and J. J. Wang

11:00 AM
17C.3
Onset and Evolution of the 1998 East Asian Summer Monsoon
Richard H. Johnson, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and P. E. Ciesielski

11:15 AM
17C.4
The development of mesoscale convective systems during the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon
Jian-Jian Wang, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, JCET, Baltimore, MD; and T. M. Rickenbach, R. C. Cifelli, and P. A. Kucera

11:30 AM
17C.5
Interannual variability of the onset timing of the South China Sea summer monsoon and its possible mechanisms
Mong-Ming Lu, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. L. Chen and M. S. Chen

11:45 AM
17C.6
**Equatorial and subtropical waves and the onset of the South East Asian monsoon
Erica M. Loechl, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

12:30 PM-12:30 PM: Saturday, 27 May 2000


Session
Presentation of the Max Eaton Student Prize and End of Conference
Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

12:45 PM-12:45 PM: Saturday, 27 May 2000


Conference Ends

1:00 PM-1:00 PM: Saturday, 27 May 2000


** Max Eaton Prize Candidate