THE OPERATIONAL PREDICTION SYSTEM FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK IN EAST CHINA SEA AND ITS IMPROVEMENT RESEARCH

Tropical cyclone track forecasting system for East China Sea (named as STM) was established in 1995. The operational prediction results in 1996°¢1997 and 1998 from this system were counted in the present paper. The track forecast results are compared with subjective forecast made by Shanghai Forecasting Center and numerical weather prediction (TYM) issued by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) on the same sample and the same time levels systematically(see table 1). The result indicates that this system have a good ability of forecasting the tropical cyclone track in East China Sea. Other numerical experiment research also has been done in the present paper. The results suggest that it is remarkable that the effect of drag coefficient of planetary boundary layer, twice typhoon bogus technique as well as three dimension optimal interpolation objective analysis and data assimilation on tropical cyclone forecasting.