Ft. Lauderdale Meeting

SUN 28 MAY

Conference Registration

MON 29 MAY

Conference Registration

Opening - Plenary Session

Session

Debate: "What limits the intensity of individual hurricanes: Thermodynamics or Dynamics?"

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

8:15 AM

Write-up of Debate

M. DeMaria, K. A. Emanuel, W. M. Gray,

Coffee Break

Session 1A

Tropical cyclone intensity change theory I (Parallel with Sessions 1B and 1C)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT

10:15 AM

1A.1

SST time series directly under tropical cyclones: observations and implications

Joseph J. Cione, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. Molina, J. Kaplan, and P. G. Black

10:30 AM

1A.2

On the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Opal (1995) over the Gulf of Mexico

V. Mohan Karyampudi, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. B. Rodgers, H. F. Pierce, and J. Weinman

10:45 AM

1A.3

Minimum Potential Pressures of Tropical Cyclones over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses.

Jay S. Hobgood, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH

11:00 AM

1A.4

Microwave SST correlation with cyclone intensity

Chelle Gentemann, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and D. Smith and F. Wentz

11:15 AM

1A.5

Limitations on hurricane intensity

Greg J. Holland, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and Y. Wang

11:30 AM

1A.6

Effects of Vertical Shear on the Structure and Intensity of Hurricanes

William M. Frank, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and E. A. Ritchie

11:45 AM

1A.7

**A climatology of hurricane maximum potential intensity in the Atlantic basin

Christopher C. Hennon, Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH

Session 1B

Tropical Waves And Instabilities I (Parallel with Sessions 1A and 1C) [This session will be dedicated to the memory of Dr. Yoshikazu Hayashi, GFDL]

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Joseph A. Zehnder, Univ. of Arizona

10:15 AM

1B.1

**Water vapor anomoly tropical wave tracing

Paul E. Roundy, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA

10:30 AM

1B.2

**The Energetics of the African Easterly Wave Life Cycle: A Case Study

Lourdes B. Avilés, Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL

10:45 AM

1B.3

Role of easterly wave in the maintenance of the easterly jet

Rosana Nieto Ferreira, NASA/GSFC and USRA, Greenbelt, MD; and M. J. Suarez and J. T. Bacmeister

11:00 AM

1B.4

The dynamics of the African Easterly Jet. Part II: GCM simulations

Julio T. Bacmeister, USRA, Seabrook, MD; and M. J. Suarez and R. N. Ferreira

11:15 AM

1B.5

**Space-time spectra of westward-propagating synoptic-scale disturbances in the ITCZ

Guojun Gu, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

11:30 AM

1B.6

Potential vorticity structure and evolution in African Easterly Waves

Michael C. Morgan, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. A. Postel

11:45 AM

1B.7

Idealized modeling of Tropical easterly disturbances

Anantha R. Aiyyer, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari

Session 1C

Interannual Variations Of Tropical Cyclones (Parallel with Sessions 1A and 1B)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Fiona Horsfall, NOAA/NWS/TPC

10:15 AM

1C.1

Extended range forecasting of NW Pacific and SW Pacific landfalling tropical cyclones

Paul Rockett, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders

10:30 AM

1C.2

**Local environmental conditions related to seasonal hurricane activity in the NE Pacific Basin

Jennifer M. Collins, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom

10:45 AM

1C.3

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Central North Pacific

Pao-Shin Chu, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and J. Clark and B. Lin

11:00 AM

1C.4

Global tropical cyclone activity: A link to the North Atlantic oscillation

Bethany Kocher, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner

11:15 AM

1C.5

Exploring QBO-atlantic hurricane relationships prior to 1950

J. D. Sheaffer, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

11:30 AM

1C.6

Extended range forecasting of Atlantic and US landfalling tropical cyclones

Mark A. Saunders, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and P. Rockett, C. J. Merchant, and R. E. Chandler

11:45 AM

1C.7

NOAA Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts for 1999

Gerry Bell, NOAA/NWS/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and C. Landsea and S. B. Goldenberg

12:00 PM

1C.8

Seasonal to Decadal Prediction of the Probability of Hurricane Landfall Along Different US Coastal Locations

William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

Lunch Break

Session 2A

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Theory II (Parallel with Sessions 2B and 2C)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Greg T. Holland, BMRC

1:15 PM

2A.1

Studies of the wavenumber one instability in hurricane-like vortices

David S. Nolan, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery and P. D. Reasor

1:30 PM

2A.2

Influences of Potential Vorticity Asymmetries on a Tropical Cyclone in a Moist Three-Layer Model

Lloyd J. Shapiro, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany

2A.3

Dynamics of Marine Storm Intensification

1:46 PM

2A.4

**Dynamics and energetics of tropical cyclone rainbands

Charmaine N. Franklin, RMIT Univ., Melbourne, Vic., Australia

2:00 PM

2A.5

Cumulus Parameterization Schemes for a Minimal Tropical Cyclone Model

Roger K. Smith, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany

2:15 PM

2A.6

A Minimal Three-Dimensional Tropical Cyclone Model

Hongyan Zhu, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith and W. Ulrich

2:30 PM

2A.7

A Minimal Axisymmetric Tropical Cyclone Model

Chi Mai Nguyen, Monash Univ., Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and H. Zhu, R. K. Smith, and M. J. Reeder

Session 2B

Tropical Waves and Instabilities II (Parallel with Sessions 2A and 2C)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State Univ.

1:15 PM

2B.1

The behavior of Rossby waves in summer monsoon-like flow

Hung-Chi Kuo, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and R. T. Williams and C. P. Chang

1:30 PM

2B.2

The non-existence of wave-CISK in the tropical regions

Han-Ru Cho, National Central University, Chungli, Taiwan

1:45 PM

2B.3

Analysis of tropospheric waves with periods of 1 to 30 days using the tropical pacific profiler network

Robert Schafer, Univ. of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, CO; and S. K. Avery

2:00 PM

2B.4

Convectively coupled Kelvin waves

Katherine A. Harris, CIRES and NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis

2:15 PM

2B.5

Observed Three Dimensional structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves

George N. Kiladis, NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and K. A. Harris, B. E. Mapes, and M. Wheeler

2:30 PM

2B.6

Modeling the Madden-Julian oscillation and convectively coupled Kelvin waves

Matthew Wheeler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. E. Mapes, G. N. Kiladis, and K. A. Harris

2:45 PM

2B.7

Frictional Feedbacks on Large-Scale Equatorially Trapped Waves

Christopher S. Bretherton, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and B. M. Moskowitz

Session 2C

Intraseasonal Variations of Tropical Cyclones (Parallel with Sessions 2A and 2B)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: William Gray, Colorado State Univ.

1:15 PM

2C.1

Prospects for an improved understanding of the low frequency variability of tropical cyclones from reanalysis

Mike Fiorino, LLNL, Livermore, CA

1:30 PM

2C.2

Forecasts of Intraseasonal Periods of Tropical Cyclone Inactivity Over the Tropical Western North Pacific Ocean

Patrick A. Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry and J. C. L. Chan

1:45 PM

2C.3

Climatological analysis of tropical cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins

Fiona Horsfall, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria

2:00 PM

2C.4

Distinctive modes of variability associated with active versus subdued Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

Wilbur Y. Chen, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Spring, MD

2:15 PM

2C.5

Modulation of eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico hurricanes by the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Eric D. Maloney, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. L. Hartmann

2:30 PM

2C.6

Intraseasonal predictability of Atlantic basin hurricane activity

Stanley B. Goldenberg, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL

2:45 PM

2C.7

**Intraseasonal prediction of atlantic basin tropical cyclone variations

Eric S. Blake, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

Coffee Break

Session 3A

Tropical cyclone-trough interactions (Parallel with Sessions 3B and 3C)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Michael T. Montgomery, Colorado State Univ.

3:30 PM

3A.1

An Overview on the Impact of Interaction between Low-mid Latitude Circulation on rainfall and Tropical cyclone behavior

Lianshou Chen, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

3:45 PM

3A.2

An observational study on the genesis of concentric eyewall hurricanes

Shangyao Nong, Applied Insurance Research, Inc., Boston, MA

4:00 PM

3A.3

Upper tropospheric flow transitions during rapid tropical cyclone intensification

Noel E. Davidson, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and S. K. Kar

4:15 PM

3A.4

Intensity change for Hurricane Opal (1995) in the GFDL hurricane model

John Persing, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery and R. E. Tuleya

4:30 PM

3A.5

A comparison of favourable and unfavourable hurricane-trough interactions

Deborah E. Hanley, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari and D. Keyser

4:45 PM

3A.6

Idealized modeling of hurricane-trough interaction

Sytske K. Kimball, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and J. L. Evans

Session 3B

Tropical cyclone motion theory I (Parallel with Sessions 3A and 3C)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Johnny Chan, City Univ. of Hong Kong

3:30 PM

3B.1

The interaction of a cyclone with topography on a b-plane

Chin-Chou Chu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and H. J. Chen and C. C. Chang

3B.2

Relating Tropical Cyclone Steering Flow to Tropical Cyclone Intensity

3:46 PM

3B.3

Potential vorticity mixing and tropical cyclone motion

Scott R. Fulton, Clarkson Univ., Potsdam, NY

4:01 PM

3B.4

Movement and Vertical Coupling of Adiabatic Baroclinic Tropical Cyclones

Liguang Wu, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang

4:16 PM

3B.5

Linear Motion of a Two-Layer, Baroclinic Hurricane in Shear

Robert W. Jones, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and H. Willoughby

4:31 PM

3B.6

Diagnosing Hurricane Track and Intensity Change as Predicted by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Hurricane Model

J. Dominique Möller, Univ. of Munich, Munich, Germany

4:46 PM

3B.7

Presentation time moved to the 3B.2 slot

4:47 PM

3B.2a

A REGIONAL SCALE ANALYSIS OF THE TRAJECTORY AND INTENSITY BEHAVIOR OF TROPICAL CYCLONES CROSSING THE CARRIBEAN ARCHIPELAGO (Formerly paper 3B.7)

C. Asselin de Beauville, Univ. of Antilles and of the Guyane and Meteo-France, Pointe a Pitre, Guadeloupe, France; and C. Pontikis and F. Pagney

Session 3C

Intraseasonal Variations In The Tropics (Parallel with Sessions 3A and 3B)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Bin Wang, Univ. of Hawaii

3:30 PM

3C.1

Intraseasonal Kelvin waves forcing and its relationship with ENSO

Jonathan C. Gottschalck, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang

3:45 PM

3C.2

Paper moved to Poster Session P1, Paper Number P1.71

3:46 PM

3C.3

The boreal summer Intraseasonal Oscillation and the South Asian monsoon

David M. Lawrence, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

4:00 PM

3C.4

Upper ocean heat budget in the western Pacific warm pool in response to Maden-Julian Oscillation

Toshiaki Shinoda, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and H. H. Hendon

4:15 PM

3C.5

Four-dimensional structures of the MJO and Kelvin wave in the CSU and CCM3 AGCMs

Charlotte A. DeMott, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall

4:30 PM

3C.6

The dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Joseph A. Zehnder, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and M. J. Reeder

4:45 PM

3C.7

Quasi-stationary and eastward-propagating convection and an MJO-like gravity wave simulated over a warm water pool in a 2D CRM experiment

Kazuyoshi Oouchi, Univ. of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; and M. Yamasaki

5:00 PM

3C.8

**Central American and Caribbean precipitation associated with cold surges

Teresa M. Bals-Elsholz, SUNY, Albany, NY

Sessions end for the day

Icebreaker/Reception

TUE 30 MAY

Conference Registration Continues through Friday, 2 June

Session 4A

Tropical Cyclone Motion Theory II/Adaptive observing systems and data assimilation I (Parallel with Sessions 4B and J1)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ.

8:00 AM

4A.1

Non-Barotropic Processes in tropical cyclone motion. Part I: Composite results

Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China

8:15 AM

4A.2

Non-Barotropic Processes in tropical cyclone motion. Part II: Individual Contributions from Diabatic Heating

Y. M. Lei, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan

8:30 AM

4A.3

Non-Barotropic Processes in Tropical Cyclone motion. Part III: Potential Vorticity Advection

Francis M. F. Ko, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan

8:45 AM

4A.4

A hurricane mission strategy using the Aerosonde

Greg Tyrrell, Aerosonde Robotic Aircraft Pty Ltd, Hawthorn, Vic., Australia; and J. Becker and G. J. Holland

9:00 AM

4A.5

Observational plan for typhoon over West North Pacific using Aerosonde (Typhoon Hunter 2000, 2001)

Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and K. Bessho, K. Nakamura, T. Furukawa, and C. Zhu

9:15 AM

4A.6

Three years of tropical cyclone synoptic surveillance in the Atlantic basin

Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL

Session 4B

Interannual variations in the tropics (Parallel with Sessions 4A and J1)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Stanley Goldenberg, NOAA/AOML/HRD

8:00 AM

4B.1

The influence of the QBO on tropical deep convection

C. C. Collimore, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. W. Martin, M. H. Hitchman, and A. Heusmann

8:15 AM

4B.2

Interannual variability of sea level in the tropical and north Indian Ocean

Weiqing Han, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster and K. Sahami

8:30 AM

4B.3

Winter monsoon over South China in ENSO and non-ENSO years

M. C. Wu, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan

8:45 AM

4B.4

Variability of Near-Equatorial Lower Tropospheric Flow Over the East Pacific Cold Tongue

Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and N. A. Bond and K. S. Gage

9:00 AM

4B.5

The low level jet and convective activity in the Caribbean

Jorge A. Amador, Univ. of Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica; and V. O. Magaña and J. B. Pérez

9:15 AM

4B.6

Interannual variability of Northern activity over the Americas

Víctor O. Magaña, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and J. L. Vázquez

Joint Session 1

Ocean interaction effects on tropical cyclone intensity I (Joint with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)

Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere )

Organizer: Yuqing Wang, Univ. of Hawaii

8:00 AM

J1.1

Hurricane directional wave spectrum spatial variation in the open ocean

C. Wayne Wright, NASA/GSFC, Wallops Island, VA; and E. J. Walsh, D. C. Vandemark, W. B. Krabill, A. W. Garcia, S. H. Houston, M. D. Powell, P. G. Black, and F. D. Marks

8:15 AM

J1.2

Global Analogues of Deep Warm Upper Ocean Layers: Hurricane Heat Potential Estimates

Lynn K. Shay, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and G. J. Goni, P. G. Black, S. D. Jacob, J. J. Cione, and E. Uhlhorn

8:30 AM

J1.3

Role of the Upper Ocean Structure on the Intensification of Hurricane Bret From Satellite Altimetry

Gustavo J. Goni, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, P. G. Black, S. D. Jacob, T. M. Cook, J. J. Cione, and E. Uhlhorn

8:45 AM

J1.4

Hurricane intensity change modulated by air-sea interaction effects based on unique airborne measurements during the 1998–99 hurricane seasons

Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn, J. J. Cione, G. J. Goni, L. K. Shay, S. D. Jacob, E. J. Walsh, and E. A. D'Asaro

9:00 AM

J1.5

Operational heat content charts at the Tropical Prediction Center

Michelle Mainelli Huber, NOAA/NWS/TPC, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay and R. J. Pasch

9:15 AM

J1.6

The GFDL/URI coupled hurricane ocean prediction system and its performance evaluation in the 1999 hurricane season

Isaac Ginis, Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and C. Rowley, L. Rothstein, S. A. Frolov, and M. A. Bender

9:30 AM

J1.7

Effects of planetary vorticity gradient and uniform current on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Johnny C. L. Chan, City Univ. of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and Y. Duan

Coffee Break

Session 5A

Adaptive Observing Systems and Data Assimilation II (Parallel with Sessions 5B and J2)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Sim Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD

10:15 AM

5A.1

Evaluation of Bogus Vortex Techniques Using a Four-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation System

Zhao-Xia Pu, USRA, Seabrook, MD; and S. A. Braun

10:30 AM

5A.2

Tropical cyclone track forecasting using data assimilation of high resolution satellite derived winds

Lance M. Leslie, Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and M. S. Speer

10:45 AM

5A.3

JTWC Integration of Remote Sensing Data into the TC Warning Process

Christopher A. Finta, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, HI

11:00 AM

5A.4

Assimilation of TRMM and SSM/I observations in a global spectral model: A case study of Nov–98 tropical cyclone

Mukul Tewari, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, India; and C. M. Kishtawal

11:15 AM

5A.5

Improved Data Assimilation in the Study of Hurricane Floyd (1999)

Jenni L. Evans, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia and Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and R. E. Hart and C. S. Velden

11:30 AM

5A.6

A comparison of data assimilation methods for hurricane track prediction

Eugenia Kalnay, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and L. M. Leslie, M. S. Speer, L. Qi, S. K. Park, and Z. X. Pu

11:45 AM

5A.7

Ensemble-based data assimilation in tropical cyclone forecasting

Brian J. Etherton, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and C. H. Bishop and S. J. Majumdar

Session 5B

Mesoscale convective systems (Parallel with Sessions 5A and J2)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Edward Zipser, Univ. of Utah

10:15 AM

5B.1

Initiation of an African Squall Line adn its interactions with an Easterly Wave

A. Diongue, CNRM and Meteo-France, Toulouse, France; and J. P. Lafore and J. L. Redelsperger

10:30 AM

5B.2

Gravity waves as a mechanism of convection triggering

Christine Lac, CNRM and Meteo-France, Toulouse, France; and J. P. Lafore and J. L. Redelsperger

10:45 AM

5B.3

**Characteristics of Convective Development in Simulated Squall Lines

Matthew Garcia, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

5B.4

Effects of easterlies at the upper troposphere on the development of tropical mesoscale convective systems

11:01 AM

5B.5

Early results from TRMM-LBA: Kinematic and microphsical characteristics of convection in distinct meteorological regimes

Steven A. Rutledge, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and W. A. Petersen, R. C. Cifelli, and L. D. Carey

11:15 AM

5B.6

Presentation time switched with paper 5B.7

11:16 AM

5B.7

Presentation time switched with paper 5B.6

11:17 AM

5B.8

Regulation of Convection Onsets During the 15 December 1992 TOGA COARE mesoscale convective system

Badrinath Nagarajan, McGill Univ., Montreal, PQ, Canada; and M. K. Yau and D. L. Zhang

11:32 AM

5B.6a

Analysis of rainfall and electrification characteristics of MCS during TRMM-LBA in the context of varying environmental regimes (Formerly paper 5B.7)

Jeffrey B. Halverson, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and T. Rickenbach, B. Ferrier, E. Williams, R. N. Ferriera, R. C. Cifelli, and G. Fisch

11:46 AM

5B.7a

Evolution of mesoscale convective systems in contrasting large scale regimes from radar and infrared satellite data during the TRMM-LBA field campaign in RondÔnia, Brazil (Formerly paper 5B.6)

Thomas M. Rickenbach, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. N. Ferreira, J. B. Halverson, and R. C. Cifelli

Joint Session 2

Ocean Interaction Effects on Tropical Cyclone Intensity II/JASMINE I (Joint with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)

Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere )

Organizer: Pete Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD

10:15 AM

J2.1

A Study of Ocean-atmospheric Interactions over the Gulf of Mexico during Non Cyclonic and Cyclonic Activity

R. Suseela Reddy, Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS; and R. Guyton and R. L. Miller

10:30 AM

J2.2

How sea spray can affect the intensity of tropical cyclones

Edgar L Andreas, U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, NH; and K. A. Emanuel

10:45 AM

J2.3

On the Effect of Sea Spray Evaporation on Tropical Cyclone Boundary-layer Structure and Intensity

Yuqing Wang, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and J. D. Kepert and G. J. Holland

11:00 AM

J2.4

Exploring the intraseasonal variability of the monsoon: An overview of JASMINE

Peter J. Webster, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO

11:15 AM

J2.5

Deep Convection Observed During the May-August 1999 Indian Monsoon

Paquita Zuidema, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. M. Lawrence and P. J. Webster

11:30 AM

J2.6

The northward propagating envelope of convection during JASMINE

David M. Lawrence, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

Poster Session 1

Lunch Poster Session (Lunch provided at Convention Center with sponsorship from Aerosonde Robotic Aircraft Pty Ltd, Hawthorn, Vic., Australia)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

P1.1

Simulation and analysis of inner-core vorticity mixing with a three-dimensional, nonhydrostatic mesoscale model

Michael T. Montgomery, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and L. D. Grasso and D. S. Nolan

P1.2

Some Aspects of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

Todd B. Kimberlain, Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, Colorado

P1.3

Status of the UW-CIMSS Objective Dvorak Technique (ODT)

Timothy L. Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

P1.4

Warm core ocean features in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico

Eric W. Uhlhorn, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. G. Black, L. K. Shay, J. J. Cione, S. D. Jacob, and G. Goni

P1.5

Structure, variability, and forcing of the East Asian Subtropical Jet

Randell J. Barry, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

P1.6

Surface-based modification of convectively-generated mesovortices and its implications for tropical cyclogenesis

Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL

P1.7

The 1999 Hurricane Season in East Central Florida—Multiple Storms with Multiple Impacts

D. Scott Kelly, NOAA/NWSFO, Melbourne, FL; and M. W. Bragaw and S. M. Spratt

P1.8

Surface wind field during tropical cyclone generation period by satellites

Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and C. Zhu

P1.9

Seasonal Forecast of tropical storms at ECMWF

P1.10

Sea wave activity associated to cold surges over Gulf of Mexico

Ernesto S. Caetano Neto, National Autonomous Univ. of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and R. V. Hernandez and J. L. Vazquez

P1.11

Mesoscale model simulations of gravity waves in a convecting atmosphere

Adam H. Sobel, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. S. Bretherton

P1.12

Moist Convection Schemes on the Responses of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure to Local Surface Coolings

P1.13

New Findings on Tibetan Plateau Field Experiment (TIPEX)

Lianshou Chen, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and X. Xu

P1.14

Numerical predictions of rainfall in Hurricane Floyd (1999)

Elizabeth C. Wood, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and W. M. Frank

P1.15

On the role of surface friction in tropical cyclogenesis

Winston C. Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and B. Chen and W. K. Tao

P1.16

Operational use of CIMSS objective dvorak technique

Michael A. Turk, NOAA/NESDIS, Washington, DC

P1.17

The Aerosonde Robotic Aircraft

Greg Tyrrell, Aerosonde Robotic Aircraft Pty Ltd, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and J. Becker and G. J. Holland

P1.18

Three-dimensional, Asymmetric, Nonhydrostatic, Unstable eigenmodes in Initially balanced, hurricane-like vortices

David S. Nolan, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery

P1.19

Trapped-fetch waves in a transitioning tropical cyclone (part II-analytical and predictive model)

Allan W. MacAfee, Canadian Hurricane Centre, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and P. J. Bowyer

P1.20

Trends in global tropical cyclone numbers 1969-1998

F. P. Roberts, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders

P1.21

Tropical Microwave Brightness Temperature Data from AMPR

Frank J. LaFontaine, Raytheon ITSS, Huntsville, AL; and R. E. Hood and A. R. Guillory

P1.22

Updated environmental structure characteristics for southern hemisphere application of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting

Grahame Reader, Bureau of Meteorology, Perth, Australia; and M. A. Boothe, R. L. Elsberry, and L. E. Carr III

P1.23

Utility of the WSR-88D Default and Tropical Z/R Relationships over South Texas during Hurricane Bret

Waylon Collins, NOAA/NWS, Corpus Christi, TX; and R. Burton and A. Patrick

P1.24

The Automated Tropical Cyclone System Version 3.4

P1.25

Three-Dimensional Structure, Scale Interactions, and Moisture Transport in Three Types of Tropical Plumes

Richard D. Knabb, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and H. E. Fuelberg

P1.26

Observations of the boundary layer of Tropical Cyclone Vance

Jeffrey D. Kepert, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and G. J. Holland

P1.27

The first eyewall penetration by the NOAA G-IV aircraft

Michael L. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. B. Damiano and S. R. White

P1.28

The highly asymmetric structure of Hurricane Earl (1998) near landfall

Mark A. Croxford, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and M. L. Black

P1.29

The monsoon as a coupled ocean-atmosphere self-regulating system

Peter J. Webster, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO

P1.30

The operational ensemble of tropical cyclone track guidance at the National Hurricane Center (1976-1998)

Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and K. Bedka

P1.31

The tropical cyclone distribution in the western North Pacific during the El Nino-La Nina swing of 1997–99: Extraordinary interannual changes

Mark A. Lander, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam

P1.32

The WWRP/TMRP International Tropical Cyclone Landfall Program (ITCLP)

Greg J. Holland, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia

P1.33

Meso-Vortices Observed by WSR-88D in the Inner Rainbands of Hurricanes Irene and Georges

John E. Wright, Center Weather Service Unit, Miami, FL

P1.34

Effect of Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity on peninsular Florida rainfall

Eric Swartz, South Florida Water Management District, West Palm Beach, Florida; and G. Shaughnessy

P1.35

An investigation of precipitation structures in Hurricane Bonnie

Daniel J. Cecil, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and E. J. Zipser, G. M. Heymsfield, R. E. Hood, and M. G. Bateman

P1.36

An investigation of the structure of Hurricane Danielle (1998) using HRD dropwindsondes

Helga Weindl, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith

P1.37

Are the Beta Gyres Really Normal Modes?

Hugh E. Willoughby, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and R. W. Jones

P1.38

Automated passive microwave tropical cyclone intensity algorithms

Richard L. Bankert, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. M. Tag, J. Sandidge, J. D. Hawkins, and M. J. Helveston

P1.39

Automated tropical cyclone intensities utilizing objective Dvorak input to passive microwave algorithm

P1.40

Caribbean Sea tropical cyclones variations and tendencies

Maritza Ballester Pérez, Institute of Meteorology, Havana, Cuba; and C. G. Pedroso and R. P. Suárez

P1.41

A tropical cyclone activity seasonal forecast model on the Atlantic basin

Maritza Ballester Pérez, Institute of Meteorology, Havana, Cuba; and C. G. Pedroso and R. P. Suárez

P1.42

Low level wind maxima observed by GPS dropsondes and their links to changes in the intensity of Hurricanes Bret and Floyd

Richard G. Henning, 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, Keesler AFB, MS

P1.43

A comparison of scatterometer-derived wind data over tropical cyclones as determined from ERS-2 and QuickSCAT data

Roger T. Edson, Analysis and Technology, Inc., Magnilao, Guam; and J. D. Hawkins

P1.44

A Comparison of Two Different Tornadic Environments: Bertha ‘96 and Danny ‘97 Vs. Dennis ‘99 and Floyd ‘99

P1.45

A distributed real-time hurricane wind analysis system

Sonia Otero, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and N. Morisseau-Leroy, N. Carrasco, and M. D. Powell

P1.46

A High Resolution Nonhydrostatic Tropical Cyclone Model

P1.47

A new era in hurricane reconnaissance: Real time measurement of surface wind structure and intensity via microwave remote sensing

Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. Uhlhorn, M. D. Powell, and J. Carswell

P1.48

A Sensitivity Study of Cumulus Parameterization Schemes on Tropical Cyclone at Landfall

P1.49

Comparison of discretization accuracy in an adaptive multigrid barotropic tropical cyclone track model

Miao Hu, Clarkson Univ., Potsdam, NY; and S. R. Fulton

P1.50

Idealized modeling of hurricane-trough interaction: analyses of storm structure and intensification

Jenni L. Evans, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and S. K. Kimball

P1.51

Indian Ocean SST and Indian summer rainfall : Predictive relationships and their decadal variability

Christina O. Clark, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Cole and P. J. Webster

P1.52

Inflow trajectories in a model hurricane

Ian J. Morrison, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger, A. Baerman, R. Draxler, and R. Tuleya

P1.53

Inherent uncertainties in numerical modeling of hurricane intensity

Greg J. Holland, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and Y. Wang

P1.54

Instrument Wetting Errors in Hurricanes: Magnitude, Frequency, and Effects upon Thermodynamic Structure

Matthew D. Eastin, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

P1.55

Intraseasonal and Interannual Modulation of Westerly Wind Bursts

Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES, University of Colorado and NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO

P1.56

Irreversible processes in nature and numerical models

Nilton O. Rennó, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and D. J. Raymond

P1.57

Hydrologic Cycle of the Indo-Asian Monsoon: Part I, The Wet Season

John T. Fasullo, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

P1.58

Detailed surface features associated with Tropical Storm Floyd (1999) at landfall

Kwan-yin Kong, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

P1.59

Maximum substained winds in Hurricane Irene as measured by the Miami WSR-88D

Colin J. McAdie, NOAA/NWS/TPC, Miami, FL; and P. Dodge

P1.60

Ensemble Simulation of Tropical Convection in a Two-Column Model

Xiping Zeng, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond

P1.61

Experimental real-time intraseasonal forecasting of Australian tropical cyclones

Sam Cleland, Bureau of Meteorology, Casuarina, NT, Australia; and P. Bate and C. Landsea

P1.62

Experiments with an adaptive multigrid shallow-water tropical cyclone model

Brittany L. Mitchell, Clarkson Univ., Potsdam, NY; and S. R. Fulton

P1.63

Forecasting Tropical Cyclone Motion near Vietnam using a Nested Barotropic Model

Nguyen Thi Minh Phuong, Monash Univ., Clayton, Vic., Australia; and M. J. Reeder, N. E. Davidson, and M. Adams

P1.64

Gross moist stability in tropical systems

Carlos López-Carrillo, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond

P1.65

A climatology of the extratropical transition of Atlantic tropical cyclones

Robert E. Hart, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. L. Evans

P1.66

MESOCYCLONE-INDUCED DOWNBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LANDFALL OF HURRICANE IRENE (1999) OVER SOUTH FLORIDA

Stacy R. Stewart, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and C. Robbins

P1.67

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES ON THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF HURRICANE IRENE (1999)

John L. Beven II, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and S. R. Stewart

P1.68

Empirical Modes of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in North Carolina

Lian Xie, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and K. Wu and L. J. Pietrafesa

P1.69

DYNAMICS OVER TROPICAL AFRICA AND ATLANTIC HURRICANES

J. A. Adedoyin, University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana

P1.70

Large-Scale Dynamic and Thermodynamic Structure of Tibetan plateau and the Impact of its Convection During TIPEX

Xiangde Xu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing, China

P1.71

Tropical convection and large-scale equatorial disturbances: Results from 2D cloud-resolving and 3D CRCP global modeling (Formerly paper 3C.2)

Wojciech W. Grabowski, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. K. Smolarkiewicz and M. Andrejczuk

Poster Session: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorlogy (Buffet Luncheon with sponsorship from Aerosonde Robotic Aircraft Pty Ltd, Hawthorn, Vic., Australia)

Session 6A

Tropical cyclone intensity forecasting I (Parallel with Sessions 6B and J3)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Lixion A. Avila, NOAA/NWS/TPC

1:45 PM

6A.1

Hurricane maximum intensity: past and present

J. Parks Camp, NOAA/NWS, Mobile, AL; and M. T. Montgomery

2:00 PM

6A.2

Large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin

John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria

2:15 PM

6A.3

Structure and Motion of Tropical Storms in NCEP s Operational Eta Model

Mukut B. Mathur, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD

2:30 PM

6A.4

A case study of tropical cyclone intensity forecast depending on cumulus parameterization

Akihiko Murata, MRI/Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Ueno

2:45 PM

6A.5

Forecast Skill of a Simplified Hurricane Intensity Prediction Model

Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and E. Rappaport

3:00 PM

6A.6

Improvements to the GFDL hurricane forecast system

Robert E. Tuleya, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and M. A. Bender

3:15 PM

6A.7

Further improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme using GOES imagery

Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO; and R. M. Zehr, C. S. Velden, and F. M. Horsfall

Session 6B

Tropical cyclogenesis I (Parallel with Sessions 6A and J3)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Michael Fiorino, LLNL

1:45 PM

6B.1

An Overview of Large-Scale Influences on Tropical Cyclogenesis

John Molinari, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Vollaro

6B.2

The overland reintensification of Hurricane Danny in July of 1997

2:01 PM

6B.3

A Numerical Simulation of the Environmental Momentum Influences on Typhoon Formation

Cheng-shang Lee, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. H. Lee

2:15 PM

6B.4

Numerical simulations of the genesis of hurricane Diana (1984)

Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. F. Bosart

6B.5

Medium-Range forecast of tropical storm genesis in a T63 Coupled GCM

2:31 PM

6B.6

Tropical storm genesis in operational model forecasts: problems and challenges

Hua-Lu Pan, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Q. Liu, S. J. Lord, and S. Y. Hong

Joint Session 3

JASMINE II (Joint with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmospehere)

Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere )

Organizer: Peter Webster, Univ. of Colorado

J3.1

Vertical structure over the Bay of Bengal during the monsoon onset

2:01 PM

J3.2

Cloud Statistics during JASMINE from 35 GHz Cloud Radar

Michelle N. Ryan, Science & Technology Corporation, Boulder, CO; and T. Uttal

2:15 PM

J3.3

An analysis of downwelling IR fluxes over the Indian Ocean using cloud radar reflectivity for pre-monsoon and monsoon periods during JASMINE

Catherine A. Russell, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and C. W. Fairall and M. N. Ryan

2:30 PM

J3.4

JASMINE observations of upper ocean structure and variability in the Bay of Bengal during the southwest monsoon

Peter Hacker, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and R. Lukas, E. Firing, and J. S. Godfrey

2:45 PM

J3.5

Heat and Freshwater Budgets From Two Intensive Upper Ocean Surveys During JASMINE

Roger Lukas, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and M. Feng and P. Hacker

3:00 PM

J3.6

Air-Sea Flux Measurements in the Bay of Bengal during the JASMINE Field Program

C. W. Fairall, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Hare, A. A. Grachev, and E. F. Bradley

3:15 PM

J3.7

Air-sea interaction in the Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon period

E. Frank Bradley, CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra, Australia; and J. S. Godfrey, T. J. Ansell, and M. G. Wells

Coffee Break

3:30 PM

Morning Coffee Break

Coffee Break

Session 7A

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting II (Parallel with Sessions 7B and J4)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Miles B. Lawrence, NOAA/NWS/TPC

4:00 PM

7A.1

Observations of Low level wind maxima using GPS dropsondes and their link to 200 Millibar Clues Identifying the Onset of Rapid Intensification

Richard G. Henning, 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, Keesler AFB, MS

4:15 PM

7A.2

Midget tropical cyclones in the subtropics

Mark A. Lander, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam

4:30 PM

7A.3

Evaluation of TRMM and SSM/I imagery in the early development of tropical cyclones

Roger T. Edson, Analysis and Technology, Inc., Magnilao, Guam

4:45 PM

7A.4

A Quantitative Look at the Relationship between Enivornmental Vertical Wind Shear and Tropical Cyclone Intesity Change Utilizing Enhanced Satellite Derived Wind Information

Gregory M. Gallina, CIMSS, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

5:00 PM

7A.5

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Using the NOAA-KLM Series advanced microwave sounding unit (AMSU):Preliminary Results and future prospects

Kurt F. Brueske, USAF and CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

7A.6

Intensity estimation from satellites:An ensemble approach

5:16 PM

7A.7

A prototype real-time wind and wave forecasting system for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin

John L. Guiney, NOAA/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and H. Graber, V. J. Cardone, R. E. Jensen, M. D. Powell, and P. G. Black

Session 7B

Tropical Cyclogenesis II (Parallel with Sessions 7A and J4)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: John E. Molinari, SUNY

4:00 PM

7B.1

Tropical cyclogenesis and stable isotope ratios of water

James R. Lawrence, Univ. of Houston, Houston, TX; and S. D. Gedzelman and J. Gamache

4:15 PM

7B.2

Mesoscale analysis of a formation process of Typhoon REX(T9804) from research vessel Keifu Maru radar observations

Kazumasa Mori, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and T. Maehira, T. Mizuno, C. Nara, and H. Sakakibara

4:30 PM

7B.3

The role of easterly waves in the formation of East Pacific tropical cyclone precursors

Luis M. Farfán, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and J. A. Zehnder

4:45 PM

7B.4

**Mixed Rossby-gravity waves and Western Pacific tropical cyclogenesis

Michael J. Dickinson, SUNY, Albany, NY

5:00 PM

7B.5

3D alignment and co-rotation of Weak, TC-Like Vortices Via Linear Vortex Rossby Waves

Paul D. Reasor, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery

Joint Session 4

Influence of air-sea interactions on monsoon development, variability and predictability (Joint Session with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)

Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere )

Organizer: Victor Magana, National Autonomous Univ. of Mexico

4:00 PM

J4.1

Relationships between Northern Gulf of California Sea Surface Temperatures and Arizona Summer Rainfall

David L. Mitchell, DRI, Reno, NV; and D. Ivanova, R. Rabin, and K. Redmond

4:15 PM

J4.2

Impact of air-sea coupling on the MJO in a General Circulation Model

Harry Hendon, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO

4:30 PM

J4.3

Mechanisms of the ENSO-Monsoon Interaction During Mature-Decay Phase of ENSO Cycle

Bin Wang, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and R. Wu and X. Fu

4:45 PM

J4.4

Intraseasonal Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Interaction during Northern Summer

Huang-Hsiung Hsu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. H. Weng

5:00 PM

J4.5

Annual cycle and interannual variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon system

Michio Yanai, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA; and X. Liu

5:15 PM

J4.6

The role of SST on the Asian summer monsoon circulation

P. L. S. Rao, IBM India Research Laboratory, New Delhi, India

5:30 PM

J4.7

Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of the Indian Ocean

Galina Chirokova, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

5:45 PM

J4.8

Influence of Indian Ocean SST anomalies on the Indian monsoon during Eastern Pacific warm events

Brian N. Belcher, Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY; and K. H. Cook

Sessions End For The Day

WED 31 MAY

Session 8A

Tropical cyclones at landfall I (Parallel with Sessions 8B and J5)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Frank Marks, NOAA/AOML/HRD

8:00 AM

8A.1

The sensitivity of landfalling tropical cyclone tracks and intensity to Indian Ocean SST anomalies

Robert F. Abbey Jr., ONR, Arlington, VA; and L. M. Leslie and L. Qi

8:15 AM

8A.2

Evolution of Typhoon Zeb (1998) in a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model

Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. H. Chou

8:30 AM

8A.3

Tropical cyclone landfall along the South China Coast

Simon E. Ching, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan and E. S. T. Lai

8A.4

Characteristics of Offshore typhoon motion and the Multiscale Dynamic Interaction between it and its Environmental Factors

8:46 AM

8A.5

A Study on Sudden Intensification of Typhoon Sam at Hongkong coast area

Jizhi Wang, National Meteorological Center of China, Beijing, China; and G. Zhang and Y. Yang

9:00 AM

8A.6

Interaction of a tropical depression with Taiwan topography and its Impacts on Producing Heavy Orographic Rainfall

Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and S. Chiao, T. A. Wang, B. W. Shen, G. Lai, C. P. Pu, and C. W. Lee

9:15 AM

8A.7

Simulations of landfalling tropical cyclones using a movable nested-mesh coupled air-sea interaction model

Clark Rowley, Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis

9:30 AM

8A.8

Effects of Surface Water over Land on Landfalling Hurricanes: A Numerical Investigation with the GFDL Hurricane Model

Weixing Shen, Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis and R. E. Tuleya

Session 8B

Extratropical transition I (Parallel with Sessions 8A and J5)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Patrick Harr, NPS

8:00 AM

8B.1

Extratropical transitions: Large-scale aspects

Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and E. H. Atallah

8:15 AM

8B.2

**Extratropical Transitions: Precipitation Distribution

Eyad H. Atallah, SUNY, Albany, NY

8:30 AM

8B.3

Stable Isotope Ratios and the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones

Stanley David Gedzelman, City College of New York, New York, NY; and J. R. Lawrence

8:45 AM

8B.4

Extratropical transition of Typhoon Vicki (9807)

Naoko Kitabatake, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

9:00 AM

8B.5

A composite study of Extratropical Transformation in the western North Atlantic Ocean, 1963-1996

John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, PQ, Canada; and C. T. Fogarty

9:15 AM

8B.6

Trapped-fetch waves in a transitioning tropical cyclone (part I—the need and the theory)

Allan W. MacAfee, Canadian Hurricane Centre, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and P. J. Bowyer

9:30 AM

8B.7

Phenomenal waves with a transitioning tropical cyclone (Luis, the Queen, and the Buoys)

Peter J. Bowyer, Canadian Hurricane Centre, Dartmouth, NS, Canada

Joint Session 5

Debate: "Is There Skill in Forecasting El Nino and La Nina Events?" (Joint with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)

Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere )

8:00 AM

J5.1

Write-up of Debate

D. Enfield, R. Livezey, J. Knaff,

Coffee Break

Session 9A

Tropical Cyclone at Landfall II (Parallel with Sessions 9B and J6)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Mark Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD

10:15 AM

9A.1

Vertical Reflectivity Profiles and Lightning Characteristics of Landfalling Hurricanes and Tropical Storms

David B. Wolff, SSAI and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD

10:30 AM

9A.2

WSR-88D Derived Rainfall Distributions in Hurricane Danny (1997)

Frank D. Marks Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and L. Selevan and J. Gamache

10:45 AM

9A.3

Examining the pre-landfall environment of Mesovortices within a hurricane Bonnie (1998) Outer Rainband

Scott M. Spratt, NOAA/NWSFO, Melbourne, FL; and F. D. Marks Jr., P. P. Dodge, and D. W. Sharp

11:00 AM

9A.4

Dual-doppler analyses of mesovortices in a hurricane rainband

Peter Dodge, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. Spratt, F. D. Marks, Jr., D. Sharp, and J. Gamache

11:15 AM

9A.5

Mesocyclone-Induced Downbursts Associated with the Landfall of Hurricane Irene (1999) over South Florida

Stacy R. Stewart, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and C. C. Robbins

11:30 AM

9A.6

Case studies of tornadoes associated with tropical cyclones based on conventional and WSR-88D data

Gandikota V. Rao, Saint Louis University, St. Louis, MO; and R. Edwards and J. Scheck

11:45 AM

9A.7

An Examination of a Tornadic Mesocyclone Associated with Tropical Storm Mitch in the Upper Keys of Florida

Dan J. Grams, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and R. E. Peterson

12:00 PM

9A.8

An objective method to determine Tropical Cyclone center near landfall from WSR-88D data—The GBVTD- simplex algorithm

Wen-Chau Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. D. Marks Jr.

12:15 PM

9A.9

Evaluating the GBVTD-tropical center finding simplex algorithm

Shirley T. Murillo, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and W. C. Lee and F. D. Marks

Session 9B

Extratropical Transition II (Parallel with Sessions 9A and J6)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Lance Bosart, SUNY

10:15 AM

9B.1

Mesoscale features of diverging strong winds associated with a typhoon in extratropical transition

Hitoshi Sakakibara, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and F. Fujibe, N. Kitabatake, Y. Tanaka, and K. Bessho

10:30 AM

9B.2

Extratropical transition in the western North Pacific: Demonstration of the importance of phasing with the mid-latitude circulation pattern during the re-intensification stage

Peter M. Klein, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Harr and R. L. Elsberry

10:45 AM

9B.3

The longevity of tropical-cyclone vortices after extratropical transition

Sarah C. Jones, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and C. Thorncroft

11:00 AM

9B.4

Sensitivity testing of Hurricane Earl's extratropical transformaion using PV inversions to modify initial conditions

Ron McTaggart-Cowan, McGill University, Monteal, PQ, Canada; and M. K. Yau and J. R. Gyakum

11:15 AM

9B.5

Simulations of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones

Elizabeth A. Ritchie, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry

11:30 AM

9B.6

**Defining the extratropical transition lifecycle using objective indicators of transition

Robert E. Hart, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA

Joint Session 6

Predictability of the tropical atmosphere-ocean system on seasonal timescales (Joint with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)

Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere )

Organizer: Bin Wang, Univ. of Hawaii

10:15 AM

J6.1

Air-sea feedbacks in the western Pacific using a coupled single-column model

Carol Anne Clayson, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and A. Chen

10:30 AM

J6.2

A unified theory for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation

Chunzai Wang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL

10:45 AM

J6.3

A Generalized Canonical Mixed Regression Model for ENSO Prediction with Its Experiment

Zhihong Jiang, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, China; and S. Neng and D. Yuguo

11:00 AM

J6.4

How much "skill" was there in forecasting the strong 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-2000 La Nina events?

Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. A. Knaff

11:15 AM

J6.5

Multi-model superensemble forecasts for Weather and seasonal climate

T. N. Krishnamurti, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar, Z. Zhang, T. LaRow, D. R. Bachiochi, C. E. Williford, S. Gadgil, and S. Surendran

11:30 AM

J6.6

A Poisson generalised linear model for the extended range forecasting of seasonal typhoon numbers

F. P. Roberts, Univ. College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom

11:45 AM

J6.7

Tropospheric direct circulations associated with the climatic components of SST variability in the equatorial Pacific

David B. Enfield, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and A. Mestas-Nuñez

Lunch Break

Session 10A

Tropical Cyclone at Landfall III (Parallel with Sessions 10B and J7)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Clark Rowley, FNMOC

1:15 PM

10A.1

Accuracy of U.S. Hurricane Landfall forecasts in the Atlantic basin 1976–1998

Mark D. Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. D. Aberson

1:30 PM

10A.2

Hurricane directional wave spectrum spatial variation at landfall

Edward J. Walsh, NASA/GSFC, Wallops Island, VA; and C. W. Wright, D. C. Vandemark, W. B. Krabill, A. W. Garcia, S. H. Houston, M. D. Powell, P. G. Black, and F. D. Marks Jr.

1:45 PM

10A.3

The distribution of tropical cyclone precipitation: satellite estimates and flood mitigation

Arlene G. Laing, Univ. of South Florida, Tampa, FL

2:00 PM

10A.4

Hurricane Bret: A major hurricane landfall in south Texas

Shawn P. Bennett, NOAA/NWS, Brownsville, TX; and A. Patrick

2:15 PM

10A.5

The Texas Tech University Wind Engineering Mobile Instrumented Tower Experiment (WEMITE): deployment operations during the 1999 Atlantic Hurricane Season

J. Rob Howard, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder and A. L. Doggett

2:30 PM

10A.6

Boundary Layer Characteristics in Hurricanes Bonnie (1998), Dennis (1999), and Floyd (1999) as determined from the Texas Tech University Wind Engineering Mobile Instrumented Tower Experiment (WEMITE)

John L. Schroeder, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and J. R. Howard and D. A. Smith

2:45 PM

10A.7

Doppler Profiler Observations of the Boundary Layer within the Eyewall of Hurricane Georges during Landfall

Kevin R. Knupp, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. Walters and E. W. McCaul Jr.

3:00 PM

10A.8

Surface winds in hurricanes from GPS-sondes: Comparisons with observations

Sam H. Houston, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and P. P. Dodge, M. D. Powell, M. L. Black, G. M. Barnes, and P. S. Chu

Session 10B

Convective parameterization (Parallel with Sessions 10A and J7)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Nilton Renno, Univ. of Arizona

1:15 PM

10B.1

Remarks on Arakawa-Schubert's Quasi-Equilibrium theory

David K. Adams, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and N. O. Rennó

10B.2

The testing of a convective parametrization scheme in an idealised tropical atmosphere

1:31 PM

10B.3

Impact of the cumulus-scale effects in a mesoscale convection resolving model

Tomoe Nasuno, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; and M. Yamasaki

1:46 PM

10B.4

COARE simulations with the mesoscale model MM5: various sensitivities to physical parameterizations

Françoise Guichard, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologique and NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Dudhia and D. Parsons

2:01 PM

10B.5

Implementing the vigor of convection and the ambient wind shear into the CSU GCM

Xin Lin, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall and L. D. Fowler

2:16 PM

10B.6

Performance of NOGAPS on the Predictions of tropical cyclones using different convective parameterization schemes

Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. Hogan

2:31 PM

10B.7

The role of cumulus schemes in the reproducibility of tropical cyclones by the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3)

Junichi Tsutsui, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan; and A. Kasahara

Joint Session 7

Atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers in tropical cyclones I (Joint Session with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)

Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere )

Organizer: Joe Cione, NOAA/AOML/HRD

1:15 PM

J7.1

A Smart Balloon Designed to Investigate Hurricane Inflow Energetics

Steven Businger, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes, R. Johnson, and J. A. Businger

1:30 PM

J7.2

Analysis Of a Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer Database Against MM5 Model Simulations

Pat J. Fitzpatrick, Jackson State Univ., Jackson, MS; and Y. Li and R. Mahecha

1:45 PM

J7.3

Large eddy simulations of the hurricane boundary layer

Shouping Wang, USRA, Huntsville, AL; and E. W. McCaul Jr. and K. R. Knupp

2:00 PM

J7.4

Development of an over-water gust factor model for hurricane conditions

Craig A. Miller, Risk Management Solutions Ltd, London, United Kingdom

2:15 PM

J7.5

Comparison of Gust Factor Data from Hurricanes

Mark R. Conder, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and R. E. Peterson

2:30 PM

J7.6

A numerical study of the Gulf Stream response to hurricanes

Sergey A. Frolov, Univ. of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis

2:45 PM

J7.7

Sea surface salinity reduction in the upper ocean induced by tropical cyclones

Vladimir Pudov, Institute of Experimental Meteorology, Obninsk, Russia; and I. Ginis

Coffee Break

Session 11A

CAMEX (Parallel with Sessions 11B and J8)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Robbie E. Hood, Global Hydrology and Climate Center

3:30 PM

11A.1

Passive microwave observations of Hurricanes during CAMEX-3

Robbie E. Hood, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and E. A. Smith, F. J. LaFontaine, and A. R. Guillory

3:45 PM

11A.2

The Modification of the Water Vapor Profile during the Passage of a Tropical System

Allison G. Schauer, NASA/GSFC, Wallops Island, VA; and F. J. Schmidlin

4:00 PM

11A.3

Hurricane wind field measurements with scanning airborne Doppler lidar during CAMEX-3

Jeffry Rothermel, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and D. R. Cutten, J. N. Howell, L. S. Darby, R. M. Hardesty, D. M. Tratt, and R. T. Menzies

4:15 PM

11A.4

Hurricane Bonnie Landfalling Observed From ER-2 doppler radar on 26 August 1998 During CAMEX-3

Gerald M. Heymsfield, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. B. Halverson, L. Tian, and B. Geerts

4:30 PM

11A.5

Entrainment of Upper Level Dry Air Into Hurricane Earl

Anthony R. Guillory, NASA/MSFC/GHCC, Huntsville, AL; and G. J. Jedlovec, R. E. Hood, R. J. Atkinson, and F. J. LaFontaine

4:45 PM

11A.6

Lidar simulations over hurricane Bonnie using CAMEX-3 data, a Lidar simulation model and numerical model anaylses

Steven Greco, Simpson Weather Associates, Charlottesville, VA; and S. A. Wood, G. D. Emmitt, M. Nicholls, and R. A. Pielke Sr.

5:00 PM

11A.7

An investigation of the impact of including CAMEX-3 data on high resolution Hurricane Bonnie simulations

Melville E. Nicholls, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Pielke Sr., S. Greco, and C. D. Emmitt

Session 11B

North African monsoon (Parallel with Sessions 11A and J8) [This session is dedicated to the memory of Prof. Fongang, Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphère]

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: John Fasullo, Univ. of Colorado

3:30 PM

11B.1

The West African monsoon onset and intra-seasonal variability

Serge Janicot, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau, France; and B. X. Sultan

3:45 PM

11B.2

Water cycle and mesoscale convective systems over West Africa

Siméon Fongang, Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphère, Dakar, Senegal; and S. M. Sall, F. K. Panda, J. Citeau, A. Gaye, and D. Badiane

4:00 PM

11B.3

Sensitivity of the West African Monsoon to Atlantic SST Anomalies

Edward K Vizy, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and K. H. Cook

4:15 PM

11B.4

Recent trend in weather forecasting in West Africa using satellite imageries and global models

Sam Gbuyiro, Federal Department of Meteorology, Lagos, Nigeria

4:30 PM

11B.5

Assessment the 1999 Sahel summer rains and seasonal forecast verifications

Wassila M. Thiaw, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Washington, DC; and G. Bell and A. G. Barnston

4:45 PM

11B.6

Relationship between East African coastal rainfall and Indian Ocean SST

Christina O. Clark, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster and J. E. Cole

Joint Session 8

Atmospheric & Oceanic Boundary Layers on Tropical Cyclones II (Joint with the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere)

Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere )

Organizer: Nick Shay, Univ. of Miami, RSMAS

3:30 PM

J8.1

Tropical cyclone boundary layer wind variability

Mark D. Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and T. A. Reinhold and R. D. Marshall

3:45 PM

J8.2

High Surface Winds in Tropical Cyclones: Boundary-Layer Models vs. Dropsonde Observations

Lixin Zeng, E.W. Blanch Co., Minneapolis, MN; and R. A. Brown

4:00 PM

J8.3

Inflow Layer Energetics of Hurricane Bonnie near Landfall

Derek R. Wroe, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes

4:15 PM

J8.4

Turbulence in the Ocean Boundary Layer Below Hurricane Dennis

Eric A. D'Asaro, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and P. G. Black

4:30 PM

J8.5

Response of the Coastal Ocean to Hurricanes Floyd and Irene at the South Florida Ocean Measurement Center

Alexander V. Soloviev, Nova Southeastern Univ., Dania Beach, FL; and R. H. Weisberg and M. E. Luther

4:45 PM

J8.6

Upper Ocean Response to Hurricane Wind Asymmetries

S. Daniel Jacob, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, P. G. Black, and S. H. Houston

5:00 PM

J8.7

Coupled Air-Sea Interactions During Hurricane Bonnie

Thomas M. Cook, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay, P. G. Black, G. J. Goni, M. M. Huber, S. D. Jacob, and J. J. Cione

5:15 PM

J8.8

Atmospheric boundary layer and upper ocean structure observed in Hurricane Erika (1997)

Joseph J. Cione, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn and P. G. Black

Sessions End For The Day

Session 11C

Conference Banquet, Speaker: Peter Davies

Hosts: (Joint between the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology; and the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere )

7:00 PM

11C.1

Biography of Banquet Speaker

Peter Davies, Author, West Yorkshire, United Kingdom

THUR 1 JUNE

Session 12A

Tropical cyclone structure I (Parallel with Sessions 12B and 12C)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Hugh E. Willoughby, NOAA/AOML/HRD

8:00 AM

12A.1

Dynamically-Induced Vertical Motion in Hurricane's Inner-Core regions

Da-Lin Zhang, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and Y. Liu and M. K. Yau

8:15 AM

12A.2

Boundary layer structure and dynamics beneath a translating tropical cyclone

Jeffrey D. Kepert, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and Y. Wang

8:30 AM

12A.3

Wind Speed Fluctuations on Scale of 10km and less than 1km Observed in Typhoon Violet

Yoshinobu Tanaka, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan

8:45 AM

12A.4

Vortex Rossby Waves and vorticity mixing in a MM5 simulation of Hurricane Bob (1991)

John D. Fulton, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery and S. Braun

9:00 AM

12A.5

Kinematic and thermodynamic structures of Hurricane Bob (1991) determined from a 1.3-km resolution numerical simulation

Scott A. Braun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Simpson and W. K. Tao

9:15 AM

12A.6

Polygonal eye-walls in barotropic, hurricane-like vortices

Harry C. Weber, University of Munich, Munich, Germany

9:30 AM

12A.7

**Observational Evidence for Horizontal Mixing in the Hurricane Near-Core

James P. Kossin, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

9:45 AM

12A.8

Synoptic Structure and evolution of a kona low

Ian J. Morrison, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. Businger

Session 12B

Tropical cyclone track forecasting I (Parallel with Sessions 12A and 12C)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Les Carr, NPS

8:00 AM

12B.1

Evaluation of Dynamical Track Predictions for Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific: Extensions to Other Years and Dynamical Models

George M. Dunnavan, NPS, Monterey, CA; and L. E. Carr III, R. L. Elsberry, and M. A. Boothe

8:15 AM

12B.2

THE OPERATIONAL PREDICTION SYSTEM FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK IN EAST CHINA SEA AND ITS IMPROVEMENT RESEARCH

Xu Yiming, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China

8:30 AM

12B.3

Performance of the Typhoon Forecast System of the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan

K.-N. Huang, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and T. C. Yeh, D. S. Chen, and M. S. Peng

8:45 AM

12B.4

A review of the UK Met. Office global model tropical cyclone forecasting performance 1990–2000

Julian T. Heming, UK Met Office, Bracknell, Berks., United Kingdom

9:00 AM

12B.5

Evaluation of dynamical track predictions for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic during 1995–98

David S. Brown, NPS, Monterey, CA; and M. A. Boothe, L. E. Carr III, and R. L. Elsberry

9:15 AM

12B.6

Comparison of the performance of the GFDL hurricane model, using the AVN, UKMET and NOGAPS analysis

Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and J. T. Heming and R. Stocker

9:30 AM

12B.7

An Analysis of the Track and Intensity Errors of Operational Global and Regional Models

Timothy P. Marchok, NOAA/GFDL, NWS/NCEP, and SAIC, Princeton, NJ; and R. E. Tuleya and S. J. Lord

9:45 AM

12B.8

Geographic distribution of hurricane model track forecast errors

Jeremy T. Pennington, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

Session 12C

Monsoons and the intertropical convergenze zone I (Parallel with Sessions 12A and 12B)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Harry Hendon, NOAA/CDC

8:00 AM

12C.1

Relationship between the South Asian Summer Monsoon and Rainfall Anomalies Associated with the East Asia summer monsoon

Jianjun Xu, City Univ. of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan

8:15 AM

12C.2

Relationship between Indian monsoon precipitation and air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau

Xiaodong Liu, University of California, Los Angeles, CA

8:30 AM

12C.3

Hydrologic Cycle of the Indo-Asian Monsoon part II: Interannual Variability

John T. Fasullo, PAOS/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

8:45 AM

12C.4

Fine vertical structure of the divergence in the upper troposphere of the tropics

Noriyuki Nishi, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

9:00 AM

12C.5

Double ITCZs

Chidong Zhang, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL

9:15 AM

12C.6

The Deformation of Large Cloud Disturbance on Western Tropical Pacific

Atsushi Hamada, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; and N. Nishi and H. Kida

9:30 AM

12C.7

Real-Time Mesoscale Numerical Simulations in Support of Astronomical Operations at Mauna Kea Observatories

Richard D. Knabb, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and R. McLaren, J. Tonry, R. Wainscoat, S. Businger, R. Ogasawara, D. Simons, and M. Mountain

Session 1

Air-sea interactions in the warm water pool and other tropical regions

Host: 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere

Organizers: Xubin Zeng, Univ. of Arizona; Richard Reynolds, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

8:30 AM

1.1

Effects of convection and clouds on TOA and surface energy budget and on sea surface temperature

Xiaoqing Wu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. W. Moncrieff

8:45 AM

1.2

Intraseasonal Fluctuations at the onset of the 1997–98 El Nino

John W. Bergman, NOAA/CDC and CIRES, Boulder, CO; and H. H. Hendon and K. M. Weickmann

9:00 AM

1.3

SST Variation due to Interactive Convective-Radiative Processes

W.-K. Tao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and C. L. Shie, D. Johnson, J. Simpson, X. Li, and C. H. Sui

9:15 AM

1.4

A New Look at an Old Problem: The Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall over Tropical Oceans

David B. Parsons, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. Guichard, E. Miller, S. Cohn, W. O. J. Brown, and K. Yoneyama

9:30 AM

1.5

Horizontal Structure of the Near-Surface Temperature and Salinity Fields in the Western Equatorial Pacific Warm Pool

Alexander V. Soloviev, Nova Southeastern Univ., Dania Beach, FL; and R. Lukas and P. Hacker

9:45 AM

1.6

Intraseasonal Perturbations in Sea Surface Temperatures of the Equatorial Eastern Pacific: Induced by the Madden-Julian Oscillation?

Chidong Zhang, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL

Presentation PDF (32.3 kB)

10:00 AM

1.7

Intraseasonal Oscillations as triggers for warm events in a three-dimensional ocean model: sensitivity at various time scales

Jon M. Schrage, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and C. A. Clayson

10:15 AM

1.8

The interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean

Bohua Huang, COLA, Calverton, MD; and J. L. Kinter III

10:30 AM

1.9

Interannual Variability of Radiative Fluxes and Sea Surface Temperature in the Vicinity of the Indonesian Throughflow

Kathryn A. Bush, SAIC, Hampton, VA; and G. L. Smith and D. F. Young

10:45 AM

1.10

Simulation of the tropical Atlantic interannual variability

Lishan Tseng, National Taiwan Normal Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and C. R. Mechoso

11:00 AM

1.11

A Discussion on the Master-Servant Relation of Air-Sea Interaction over NINO3 Region and the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean

Jinhai He, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and H. Xu and B. Zhou

11:15 AM

1.5a

Morning Coffee Break

Coffee Break

Session 13A

Tropical Cyclones Structure II (Parallel with Sessions 13B and 13C)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Michael Black, NOAA/AOMA/HRD

10:15 AM

13A.1

A numerical study of the distribution of precipitation in Hurricane Bonnie (1998)

Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen, J. E. Tenerelli, and M. Lonfat

10:30 AM

13A.2

**Convective asymmetries in tropical cyclones

Kristen L. Corbosiero, SUNY, Albany, NY

10:45 AM

13A.3

**Reflectivity, ice scattering, and lightning characteristics of tropical cyclone eyewalls, inner rainbands, adn outer rainbands

Daniel J. Cecil, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX

11:00 AM

13A.4

The Eyewall of Category 1 Hurricane Paine near Landfall

Sean K. Daida, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes

11:15 AM

13A.5

Radial variation of azimuthally averaged flow across the hurricane core as observed with airborne Doppler Radar

John F. Gamache, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. L. Black and H. E. Willoughby

11:30 AM

13A.6

Surface winds in hurricane Floyd: a comparison numerical simulations, aircraft, and QuikScat satellite data

Joseph E. Tenerelli, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen, R. Foster, M. Lonfat, W. T. Liu, and R. Rogers

11:45 AM

13A.7

Tropical Storm Alex and the potential for midget tropical cyclones to go undetected

Dan B. Mundell, NOAA/NWS, Dededo, Guam

12:00 PM

13A.8

An experimental examination of hurricane mesovortices: Flow apparatus and particle image velocimetry measurements

Michael T. Montgomery, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and V. A. Vladimirov and P. V. Denissenko

Session 13C

Monsoons and the Intertropical Convergence Zone II (Parallel with Sessions 13A and 13B)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: David Raymond, New Mexico Tech

10:15 AM

13C.1

On the Origin of Monsoon

Winston C. Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and B. Chen

10:30 AM

13C.2

Large-scale precipitation and latent heating distributions in the Tropics derived from satellite-borne passive and active microwave sensors

William S. Olson, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and Y. Hong, S. Yang, C. D. Kummerow, and W. K. Tao

10:45 AM

13C.3

The Cross-Equatorial Hadley Circulation of the Eastern Pacific

Manuel Rodríguez-Achach, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond, L. Hartten, and K. S. Gage

11:00 AM

13C.4

Distortion of the Pacific ITCZ by the American landmass

Brian E. Mapes, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/CDC, Boulder, CO; and T. T. Warner and M. Xu

11:15 AM

13C.5

Formation of a Northward Displaced ITCZ in a Hybrid Coupled AGCM

Shang-Ping Xie, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and K. Saito, H. Okajima, and A. Numaguti

11:30 AM

13C.6

**Diurnal Variability and Energetics of the North American Monsoon

Connie M. Klimczak, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

11:45 AM

13C.7

Dynamical features associated with 4–8 day variability in the OLR in the east Pacific Oceans

Robert A. Tomas, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Webster

12:00 PM

13C.8

Idealized simulations of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone

Edward Colón, Howard University, Washington, DC; and R. N. Ferreira and M. J. Suarez

Session 13B

Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting II (Parallel with Sessions 13A and 13C)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL

10:30 AM

13B.1

An Initialization Scheme for a Hurricane Prediction System

Houjun Wang, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and W. M. Frank

13B.2

Initialization of a hurricane vortex

10:45 AM

13B.3

PV diagnostics of the impact of model initialization on the performance of a typhoon prediction system

Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and T. S. Huang, K. N. Huang, and T. C. Yeh

11:00 AM

13B.4

Two initialisation (bogussing) techniques used at Meteo-France to improve tropical cyclone tracks forecasting

Isabelle Soulan, Météo-France, Université de La Réunion, Sainte Clotilde, Réunion, France; and J. M. Willemet, M. Bessafi, and R. El Khatib

11:15 AM

13B.5

Regionally bred modes and ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone motion

Kevin K. W. Cheung, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China

11:30 AM

13B.6

Quantifying tropical cyclone track forecast uncertainty using an ensemble of dynamical models

James S. Goerss, NRL, Monterey, CA

11:45 AM

13B.7

Applying clustering and ensemble prediction concepts to consensus Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting

Russell L. Elsberry, NPS, Monterey, CA; and L. E. Carr III

13B.8

Multi-model superensemble forecasts: Part II. Hurricane prediction

Session 2

Influence of freshwater flux and salinity on sea surface temperatures and ocean dynamics

Host: 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere

Organizer: Richard Reynolds, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

11:45 AM

2.1

Upper ocean heat and salt variability in the equatorial Pacific

Heidi Zeleznik, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and C. A. Clayson

12:00 PM

2.2

Influence of Rainfall on the Subtropical North Pacific Mixed Layer

Roger Lukas, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI

12:15 PM

2.2a

Lunch Break

Session 14A

Tropical Cyclone Structure III (Parallel with Sessions 14B and 14C)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Robert Burpee

1:15 PM

14A.1

Eyewall Wind Profiles in Hurricanes Determined by GPS Dropwindsondes

James L. Franklin, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and M. L. Black and K. Valde

1:30 PM

14A.2

GPS dropsonde observations of the wind structure in convective and non-convective regions of the hurricane eyewall

Michael L. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. L. Franklin

1:45 PM

14A.3

The asymmetric wind structure of tropical cyclones in various shear environments

Steven E. Feuer, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. L. Black and J. L. Franklin

2:00 PM

14A.4

**Hurricane radial wind profiles derived from GPS dropwindsonde data

Robert N. LeeJoice, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

2:15 PM

14A.5

**Evaluation of Buoyant Motions within the Hurricane Inner Core

Matthew D. Eastin, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

2:30 PM

14A.6

The structure of Hurricane Irene over South Florida

Jack R. Parrish, NOAA/Aircraft Operations Center, MacDill AFB, FL; and M. L. Black, S. H. Houston, P. P. Dodge, and J. J. Cione

2:45 PM

14A.7

Mesoscale Convective Influences On the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Irene (1999)

John L. Beven II, NOAA/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and S. R. Stewart

Session 14B

Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting III (Parallel with Sessions 14A and 14C)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Russell Elsberry, NPS

1:15 PM

14B.1

Numerical Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998) Using the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit Derived Winds

Tong Zhu, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. L. Zhang and F. Weng

1:30 PM

14B.2

Steering dynamics of hurricanes based on satellite-derived far-field winds

Flavio Noca, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and C. S. Velden

1:45 PM

14B.3

Statistical post-processing of ECMWF tropical cyclone track forecasts

Mark A. Boothe, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry

2:00 PM

14B.4

Hurricane surgery in global model forecast fields

Qingfu Liu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and S. J. Lord, J. C. Derber, and H. L. Pan

2:15 PM

14B.5

Occurrences of Binary Tropical Cyclone and their characteristc track-modes in the western north pacific

Suguru Ishijima, Univ. of the Ryukyus, Nishihara, Okinawa, Japan; and N. Servando

2:30 PM

14B.6

**An EOF Analysis and Modeling Study of the Multi-Typhoons Movement over the West Northern Pacific and the South China Sea

Ling-Feng Hsiao, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan

2:45 PM

14B.7

Interaction of binary tropical storms in a idealized background flow

Mitia Frumin, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel; and A. P. Khain, I. Ginis, and A. I. Falkovich

Session 14C

Tropical cyclone climate variability and climate change (Parallel with Sessions 14A and 14B)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Mark Saunders, Univ. College of London

1:15 PM

14C.1

Interdecadal variability in Queensland tropical cyclone occurrence

Andrew P. Grant, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Vic., Australia; and K. J. E. Walsh

1:30 PM

14C.2

**Long-Term Trends in North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

Todd B. Kimberlain, Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO

1:45 PM

14C.3

Changes in the rates of North Atlantic major hurricane activity during the 20th century

J. B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. Jagger and X. Niu

2:00 PM

14C.4

Multiply-nested simulations of the poleward extent of tropical cyclones

Kevin J. E. Walsh, CSIRO, Aspendale, Vic., Australia; and K. C. Nguyen

2:15 PM

14C.5

Influence of greenhouse warming on tropical cyclone frequency, part II

Jun Yoshimura, Frontier Research System for Global Change, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Sugi and A. Noda

2:30 PM

14C.6

Impact of CO2-induced warming on hurricane intensities as simulated in a hurricane model with ocean coupling

Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. E. Tuleya, W. Shen, and I. Ginis

Session 3

Air-sea interaction and Pacific Decadal Variability

Host: 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere

Organizer: Bin Wang, Univ. of Hawaii

2:00 PM

3.1

Freshening of the Upper Pycnocline in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre Associated With Decadal Changes of Rainfall

Roger Lukas, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI

2:15 PM

3.2

Propagation of North Pacific interdecadal subsurface temperature anomalies in an ocean GCM

Masami Nonaka, Frontier Research System for Global Change, Tokyo, Japan and Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. P. Xie

2:30 PM

3.3

Spatiotemporal Structure of decadal scale variability observed in the Global SST and lower-tropospheric circulation fields

Tomohiko Tomita, Frontier Research Program for Global Change, Tokyo, Japan and Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang, T. Yasunari, and H. Nakamura

2:45 PM

3.4

Decadal variability and the anomalous 1990s ENSO events

Qin Zhang, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Honolulu, HI; and Y. Ding and L. Yi

3:00 PM

3.5

A "Heat Pump" Picture for the ENSO System

De-Zheng Sun, NOAA/CDC, Boulder, Colorado

3:15 PM

3.6

Is the PDO a Single Mode of Climate Variability or the Result of Several? Implications for the Next Decade

Robert E. Livezey, CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Silver Spring, MD; and T. M. Smith

3:30 PM

3.6a

Afternoon Coffee Break

Coffee Break

Session 15A

Tropical Cyclone Structure IV (Parallel with Sessions 15B and 15C)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Chris Velden, Univ. of Wisconsin

3:30 PM

15A.1

A Study of the Rain Distribution in Tropical Cyclones Using TRMM/TMI

Manuel Lonfat, RSMAS/Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and F. D. Marks Jr. and S. S. Chen

3:45 PM

15A.2

Structure of tropical clouds and precipitation as inferred from TRMM data

Guosheng Liu, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. A. Curry and W. B. Rossow

4:00 PM

15A.3

Multi-satellite tropical cyclone structure (SSM/I & TMI)

Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. F. Lee, F. J. Turk, K. L. Richardson, C. Sampson, and J. Kent

4:15 PM

15A.4

An objective method for estimating tropical cyclone intensity and structure from NOAA-15 Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit (AMSU) data

Julie L. Demuth, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, J. A. Knaff, and T. H. Voner Haar

4:30 PM

15A.5

Tropical Cyclone Research using Large Infrared Image Data Sets

Raymond M. Zehr, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO

4:45 PM

15A.6

Use surface adjusted GOES low-level cloud-drift winds to improve the estimation of tropical cyclone outer wind radii

Jason P. Dunion, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. H. Houston, M. D. Powell, C. S. Velden, and P. G. Black

5:00 PM

15A.7

Validation of QuikScat Tropical Cyclone Winds

Deborah Smith, Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa, CA; and C. Mears, C. Gentemann, and F. Wentz

5:15 PM

15A.8

Relationships Between The Multi-Layered Wind Field And The Intensity Of Hurricane Floyd

John A. Knaff, NOAA and CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. S. Velden

Session 15B

Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting IV (Parallel with Sessions 15A and 15C)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Julian Heming, UK Met Office

3:30 PM

15B.1

Australian REID CLIPER

Russel P. Morison, Univ. of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie

3:45 PM

15B.2

**A Kind of tangential wind profile for strong tropical cyclone and its contribution to abnormal tropical cyclone Track Prediction

Zhiyong Meng, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China

4:00 PM

15B.3

Sensitivity Studies with a new Nested Shallow-Water Model for Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction

Markus Adams, University of Munich, Munich, Germany

4:15 PM

15B.4

Recent advancements in tropical cyclone forecasting using regional models at Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center

Roger A. Stocker, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and M. A. Rennick

4:30 PM

15B.5

MOCCANA performance and comparison with CLIPPER model

Miloud Bessafi, Université de La Réunion, Sainte Clotilde, La Reunion, France; and A. Lasserre-Bigorry

4:45 PM

15B.6

Developing a Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting expert system-1: Information management, visualization, and proactivity considerations

James E. Peak, Computer Sciences Corporation, Monterey, CA; and L. E. Carr III and R. L. Elsberry

5:00 PM

15B.7

Developing a Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting expert system-2: Results of a real-time prototype test

Lester E. Carr III, NPS, Monterey, CA; and G. M. Dunnavan, R. L. Elsberry, M. A. Boothe, and P. A. Harr

Session 15C

Convective processes I (Parallel with Sessions 15A and 15B)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Christopher Bretherton, Univ. of Washington

3:30 PM

15C.1

Radiative-Convective Processes in Regulating Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere

C.-H. Sui, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and K. M. Lau, X. Li, and C. H. Ho

3:45 PM

15C.2

Cloud-Radiation Interactions and Convective Forcing

David J. Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and C. Lopez-Carillo

4:00 PM

15C.3

**Moisture interchange between clouds and environment in a tropical atmosphere

Carlos Lopez-Carrillo, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM

4:15 PM

15C.4

Large-scale interactions among clouds, surface fluxes, and the tropical ocean mixed layer

Carol Anne Clayson, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and J. A. Curry, R. Reeder, and G. Liu

4:30 PM

15C.5

A study of 2–3 day convective processes in the tropical western Pacific warm pool

Brian Strahl, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and C. A. Clayson and J. Schrage

4:45 PM

15C.6

Cloud-resolving and single column model simulations of a Dry Intrusion observed during toga-coare

Jean-Luc Redelsperger, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and D. Parsons and F. Guichard

5:00 PM

15C.7

Convective momentum transport in the tropics: What can budget studies tell us?

Matthew T. Carr, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. S. Bretherton

5:15 PM

15C.8

Convective heating and momentum transport associated with tropical disturbances

Wen-wen Tung, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and M. Yanai

Session 4

Air-sea interactions and the North Atlantic Oscillation

Host: 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere

Organizer: Richard Reynolds, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

3:45 PM

4.1

The Coupling between the Thermohaline Circulation and North Atlantic Oscillation in Global Ocean Atmosphere Land System Model

Tian-jun Zhou, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China; and X. H. Zhang

4:00 PM

4.2

Response of an Atmospheric GCM to Tropical Atlantic SST Dipole

Yuko Okumura, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and S. P. Xie, A. Numaguti, and Y. Tanimoto

4.3

Comparing the physics of ocean-atmosphere coupling and estimates of extratropical predictability in models and reality

4.4

Midlatitude ocean-atmosphere interaction in an idealized coupled model

Session

Panel Discussion: How can we improve forecasting rainfall amounts for U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones and communicating this information to the public?

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

7:30 PM

Write-up of panel discussion

Gary Barnes, Moderator - University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI

FRI 2 JUNE

Session 16B

Convective Processes II (Parallel with Sessions 16A and 16C)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: C. H. Sui, NASA/GSFC

8:15 AM

16B.1

Convective/stratiform rain behavior from TRMM

Song Yang, JCET/Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and C. D. Kummerow, E. A. Smith, B. Olson, and Y. Hong

8:30 AM

16B.2

Vertical profiles of tropical convection as observed by the TRMM satellite

Walter A. Petersen, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Rutledge, R. C. Cifelli, and L. D. Carey

8:45 AM

16B.3

High-resolution reflectivity and vertical velocity profiles in various convectively-generated precipitation systems

Bart Geerts, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY; and G. M. Heymsfield

9:00 AM

16B.4

Combined wind profiler/polarimetric radar studies of the vertical motion, thermodynamic and microphysical characteristics of tropical thunderstorms

Peter T. May, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and C. Lucas, I. M. Reid, P. E. Johnston, A. R. Jameson, and T. D. Keenan

16B.5

Radiative Impacts of Island-Based Thunderstorms During MCTEX

9:16 AM

16B.6

Diurnal variation of cumulonimbus in typhoon inferred from negative brightness temperature difference validated by TRMM PR Data

Kotaro Bessho, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and Y. Tanaka and T. Nakazawa

9:30 AM

16B.7

Tropical cyclone lightning distribution and its relationship to convection and intensity change

Edward Rodgers, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. Wienman, H. Pierce, and W. Olson

9:45 AM

16B.8

An anthology of tropical convection: A survey of convective-dynamic synergies

Peter J. Webster, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. A. Curry and R. Tomas

Session 5

Turbulent surface fluxes and SSTs

Host: 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere

Organizer: Carol Anne Clayson, Purdue Univ.

8:30 AM

5.1

SEAFLUX: Ocean Surface Turbulent Flux Project

Judith A. Curry, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO

8:45 AM

5.2

Uncertainties in global sea surface turbulent flux algorithms

Michael A. Brunke, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and X. Zeng

9:00 AM

5.3

Effect of Precipitation and Clouds on Ocean Surface Fluxes at Different Spatial Scales

Xubin Zeng, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and Q. Zhang, D. Johnson, and W. K. Tao

9:15 AM

5.4

Measuring heat flux with differential absorption techniques

Walter J. McKeown, NRL, Stennis Space Center, MS

9:30 AM

5.5

Air-Sea surface heat flux, solar irradiance and surface temperature measurement using an in-situ sensor

J. P. Boyle, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

9:45 AM

5.6

Evaluation of AVHRR and GOES SST algorithms using skin temperature data

John W. Makevich Jr., Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and X. Zeng, X. Li, and X. Wu

10:00 AM

5.6a

Morning Coffee Break

Session 16C

Historical tropical cyclones (Parallel with Sessions 16A and 16B)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Sam Houston, NOAA/AOML/HRD

8:30 AM

16C.1

The Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-Analysis Project: Results for 1851–1885

Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. Anderson, N. Charles, G. Clark, J. Fernandez-Partagas, P. Hungerford, C. Neumann, and M. Zimmer

8:45 AM

16C.2

Re-analysis of The Gale of ‘78—Storm 9 of the 1878 Hurricane Season

David M. Roth, NOAA/NWS/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD; and H. D. Cobb III

9:00 AM

16C.3

Reconstruction of the 1893 New York City hurricane from meteorological and archeological records—Implications for the future

Nicholas K. Coch, Queens College, City University of New York, Flushing, NY; and B. Jarvinen

9:15 AM

16C.4

The North Florida Hurricane of 29 September 1896, a Historical Case of Extreme Inland High Winds

Al Sandrik, NOAA/NWS, Jacksonville, FL; and C. Landsea and B. Jarvinen

9:30 AM

16C.5

The Atlantic HURISK model: Adaptation to other tropical cyclone basins

Charles J. Neumann, SAIC, Miami, FL

9:45 AM

16C.6

A CENTENNIAL REVIEW OF MAJOR LAND FALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

David R. Vallee, NOAA/NWSFO, Taunton, MA

Session 16A

Operational forecasting of tropical cyclones (Parallel with Sessions 16B and 16C)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Max Mayfield, NOAA/NWS/TPC/National Hurricane Center

16A.1

Review of the 1999 WESTPAC Tropical Cyclone Season

16A.2

JTWC Forecast Process

9:02 AM

16A.3

Forecasting difficulties during the 1999 hurricane season

Lixion A. Avila, NOAA/NHC, Miami, FL

9:15 AM

16A.4

Inland hurricane flooding in southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina produced by Dennis '99 and Floyd '99: Operational considerations and decision making at NWS Wakefield, Virginia

Neil A. Stuart, NOAA/NWS, Wakefield, VA; and H. D. Cobb III

9:30 AM

16A.5

Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Deaths in North Carolina—Not Just a Coastal Event

Joel Cline, NOAA/NWS, Raleigh, NC

Coffee Break

Session 6

Coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomena

Host: 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere

Organizer: Xubin Zeng, Univ. of Arizona

10:30 AM

6.1

A coupled atmosphere-ocean model applied to the simulation of Mediterranean lows and hurricanes

P. Lionello, Univ. of Lecce, Lecce, Italy; and P. Malguzzi, E. Caldognetto, and A. Sanna

10:45 AM

6.2

Dynamical and thermal feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and ocean surface

Will Perrie, Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and Y. Zhang and Q. Zheng

11:00 AM

6.3

A Numerical Study of Air-Sea Interaction in the Japan/East Sea

Li Wang, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen and J. Tenerelli

11:15 AM

6.4

Anomalous cloud lines over the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays

Todd D. Sikora, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and E. O'Marr and R. Gasparavic

Session 17A

Societal impacts and stresses (Parallel with Sessions 17B and 17C)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Richard J. Murnane, Bermuda Biological Station for Research, Inc.

10:30 AM

17A.1

Tropical cyclone hazard assessment in the Northwest Pacific

E. Rauch, Geoscience Research Group, Munich, Germany

17A.2

Reinsurance Tropical Cyclone Model—Goals, Achievements, Questions

11:00 AM

17A.3

A stochastic, "basin-wide" model of Atlantic hurricanes

Michael Drayton, Risk Management Solutions Ltd., London, United Kingdom

11:15 AM

17A.4

Trends in the ratio of damage to deaths caused by United States landfalling hurricanes

Chris C. Robbins, NOAA/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL; and J. Gross

11:30 AM

17A.5

Hurricane vulnerability and changes in vulnerability for coastal counties in the United States from 1961 to 1991

David Whitehead, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner

11:45 AM

17A.6

Costs and Benefits of Hurricane forecasting

Hugh E. Willoughby, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL

12:00 PM

17A.7

Business Case for the National Hurricane Center

Jerry D. Jarrell, Polk City, FL; and K. F. Williams

Session 17B

Convective Processes III (Parallel with Sessions 17A and 17C)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Brian Mapes, NOAA/CIRES/CDC

10:30 AM

17B.1

A dynamic and thermodynamic foundation for modeling the moist atmosphere with classical thermodynamics and parameterized microphysics

Katsuyuki V. Ooyama, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL

10:45 AM

17B.2

Potential vorticity in a moist atmosphere

Wayne H. Schubert, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Hausman, M. Garcia, K. V. Ooyama, and H. C. Kuo

11:00 AM

17B.3

**Generalized moist potential vorticity diagnosed from a nonhydrostatic, axisymmetric tropical cyclone simulation

Scott A. Hausman, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

11:15 AM

17B.4

**The effects of a random population of isolated cumulonimbi on the distribution of potential vorticity in the lower troposphere

Stefan N. Tulich, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

11:30 AM

17B.5

Mean field theory for tropical precipitation

Adam H. Sobel, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. S. Bretherton

11:45 AM

17B.6

Atmospheric convection as an irreversible heat engine

Nilton O. Rennó, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

12:00 PM

17B.7

Simulation of deep tropical clouds using a spectral microphysics cloud model HUCM

Alexander P. Khain, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel; and A. Pokrovsky and M. Pinsky

17B.8

Session 17C

SCSMEX (Parallel with Sessions 17A and 17B)

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Organizer: Huang-Hsiung Hsu, National Taiwan Univ.

10:30 AM

17C.1

Mechanisms responsible for the maintenance of the 1998 South China Sea Summer Monsoon

Wanxiu Ai, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan, Y. Wang, and J. Xu

10:45 AM

17C.2

Monsoon Characteristics Observed during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment

Paul A. Kucera, Univ. of Iowa, Iowa City, IA; and R. C. Cifelli, T. M. Rickenbach, T. D. Keenan, and J. J. Wang

11:00 AM

17C.3

Onset and Evolution of the 1998 East Asian Summer Monsoon

Richard H. Johnson, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and P. E. Ciesielski

11:15 AM

17C.4

The development of mesoscale convective systems during the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon

Jian-Jian Wang, Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, JCET, Baltimore, MD; and T. M. Rickenbach, R. C. Cifelli, and P. A. Kucera

11:30 AM

17C.5

Interannual variability of the onset timing of the South China Sea summer monsoon and its possible mechanisms

Mong-Ming Lu, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. L. Chen and M. S. Chen

11:45 AM

17C.6

**Equatorial and subtropical waves and the onset of the South East Asian monsoon

Erica M. Loechl, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

CONFERENCE ENDS

Session

Presentation of the Max Eaton Student Prize and End of Conference

Host: 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Conference Ends

Session

Tour of the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center in west Miami-Dade County (Bus to depart from the Convention Center at 1:00 p.m., the tour will begin in Miami at 2:00 p.m. and will take approximately 1 hour, the bus will return to the convention center by 4:30 p.m.) Bus tickets may be purchased at the AMS Registration desk on-site. The final cost for the bus ticket will be between $6-$10, depending on how many people sign up for transportation.

Hosts: (Joint between the 10th Conference on Interaction of the Sea and Atmosphere; and the 24th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology )

** Max Eaton Prize Candidate

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