Thermodynamics Case: Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA
Dynamics Case: William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO
Prediction of hurricane intensity change remains a difficult task. Beginning in the 1940s, studies by Riehl, Gray and others have suggested that dynamical factors such environmental wind shear control the intensity of hurricanes. In contrast, early studies by Palmen, Miller and others suggested a thermodynamic control. More recently, Emanuel has demonstrated that the observed intensity changes of many storms can be reproduced in a very simple coupled ocean-atmosphere model, which does not include any dynamical interaction with the environment. This session on the role of thermodynamics and dynamics will take the form of a pro and con debate. The moderator will provide a short introduction to the topic of hurricane intensity change, followed by 20 minute presentations by Profs. Gray and Emanuel. For the remainder of the session, there will be a general debate on the role of thermodynamic and dynamics, with audience participation.
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