A Poisson generalised linear model for the extended range forecasting of seasonal typhoon numbers

A Poisson generalised linear model that uses lagged correlations with regional SSTs for the long-range forecasting of seasonal typhoon numbers is presented. Model hindcasts are presented showing a correlation coefficient of 0.88 between predicted and actual seasonal typhoon numbers. Results of ongoing work using the UK Met Office HADAM3 general circulation model to investigate the physical mechanisms linking the predictors and typhoon numbers are also presented.