**Intraseasonal prediction of atlantic basin tropical cyclone variations

The seasonal forecast of Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone (TC) activity has shown skill in the six to nine month lead-time range. However, significant month-to-month and multi-week variability exists. Activity tends to be clustered rather than spread evenly throughout the hurricane season. There are currently no operational techniques which can predict the probability of formation above or below climatology.

Preliminary results indicate some skill in a two week TC genesis forecast which give probability above or below climatology rate of formation. The research method uses radiosondes across the Atlantic Basin back to the early 1950's to study wind, pressure, temperature and moisture on a daily time scale.