Intraseasonal predictability of Atlantic basin hurricane activity

The Atlantic basin hurricane season officially lasts from 1 June through 30 November. The vast majority of the activity (>95% of the major hurricane activity) occurs during the peak months August, September and October. Previous analyses have demonstrated that early season (June-July) overall tropical cyclone activity has no relationship to the activity during the remainder of the season. Results will be presented that demonstrate that if the June-July activity is stratified properly, however, it can yield a strong predictive signal for the activity during the rest of the season. The occurrence of a certain types of activity in June or July is in fact a sufficient (but not necessary) condition for a year with above-average activity.

Results will also be discussed showing how just as the June-July activity contains a signal to help predict the activity for the coming months, June-September (or simply August-September) activity can give a clear indication of what is to come during the final peak month of October.