Extended range forecasting of NW Pacific and SW Pacific landfalling tropical cyclones

UK scientists have developed the first extended range forecasts for NW Pacific and Far East landfalling tropical cyclones, and for SW Pacific and Queensland landfalling cyclones. These forecasts are custom designed to benefit the needs of insurers and risk managers when renewing their windstorm policies. The fundamental principle underlying these models is to forecast probability distributions for tropical cyclone occurrence. In this way imperfection in the forecast is recognised while at the same time providing quantitative information. We will describe the forecast models, their hindcast skill performance at different lead times, the key predictors, and our predictions for the 2000 NW Pacific and 2000/01 SW Pacific seasons.