The operational ensemble of tropical cyclone track guidance at the National Hurricane Center (1976-1998)

A suite of operational track forecast models has been run at NHC in support of NHC s task to provide tropical cyclone track forecasts. Official NHC forecasts have improved at a rate faster than 1% during the 1990s, suggesting substantial improvements to the numerical guidance.

This operational ensemble since 1976 has been analyzed as a set to mark the improvements of the guidance with time. The improvements in the ability of the guidance to span the actual track of tropical cyclones, the performance of the ensemble mean with time, and changes in individual model performance are to be presented in this poster.