Further improvements to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme using GOES imagery

The Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) has been run operationally since 1993 for storms in the Atlantic and since 1996 for storms in the east Pacific. SHIPS combines climatological, persistence and synoptic variables to predict intensity changes out to 72 h. Beginning in 1997, SHIPS was generalized to include variables from forecast fields in addition to those from synoptic analyses. With this change, SHIPS has significant forecast skill relative to forecasts based upon climatology and persistence. The potential to further improve the skill of SHIPS by the incorporation of GOES imagery will be evaluated. Area-average brightness temperatures from infrared imagery will be tested as potential predictors. In addition, forecasts where the vertical shear predictors are evaluated from the University of Wisconsin satellite wind-based analyses will be compared to forecasts where the shear is evaluated from NCEP analyses. Minor upgrades to the operational version of the model and the verification for the 1999 hurricane season will also be described.