SST time series directly under tropical cyclones: observations and implications

One of the most important predictors in the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is the sea surface temperature (SST) out ahead of the storm. Currently, the SHIPS SST parameter is obtained from weekly 1 degree by 1 degree Reynolds SST analyses. The Reynolds analysis is used since it is widely available and can estimate SST at any desired location in the Atlantic basin. However, this analysis has its limitations since environmental SST out ahead of the storm may, under certain conditions, significantly differ from the actual surface ocean temperature within the storm environment. Using SST timeseries from the 1975-1999 Tropical Cyclone-Buoy Database (TCBD) for a subset of Atlantic Hurricanes, comparisons between SHIPS SSTs and TCBD SSTs both out ahead of the storm and within the hurricane inner core will be made. It is the main goal of this research to investigate the variability between SHIPS SSTs and in-situ inner core SSTs under various storm-specific and oceanic conditions. Key findings and implications from this study will be presented.