Experimental real-time intraseasonal forecasting of Australian tropical cyclones

Experimental real-time intraseasonal forecasts of Australian region tropical cyclones have been issued since the 1995-96 cyclone season. These forecasts are based upon the analyzed and anticipated phase of the intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO), which is primarily driven by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. Forecasts are targeted for one week increments, from one to six weeks into the future. These predictions are quantified as the chance of tropical cyclone genesis occurring in the region between 0 to 40S, 90 to 160E. The probabilities of genesis are altered upward or downward depending upon the anticipated phase of the ISO during the particular week being predicted. These are contrasted to both a straight climatological expectation of genesis as well as El Nino-Southern Oscillation- adjusted probabilities. An evaluation of skill for these few years of intraseasonal forecasting will be presented.