The GFDL/URI coupled hurricane ocean prediction system and its performance evaluation in the 1999 hurricane season

The GFDL/URI coupled hurricane-ocean prediction system consists of the GFDL hurricane model and the Princeton Ocean model coupled together in the North Atlantic basin. It was tested in a near real-time mode for more than 150 cases during the 1999 hurricane season. The model results were delivered to the National Hurricane Center. Preliminary analyses of the model performance indicate that the hurricane intensity forecasts were improved by about 30% compared to the operational (uncoupled) GFDL model. These results suggest that inclusion of hurricane-ocean coupling is necessary for accurate intensity prediction using the GFDL model as well dynamical model in general.