1C.7 NOAA Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts for 1999

Tuesday, 23 May 2000: 11:45 AM
Gerry Bell, NOAA/NWS/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and C. Landsea and S. B. Goldenberg

This presentation details the diagnostics and methodology utilized in preparing the NOAA (CPC/HRD/NHC) seasonal hurricane forecasts for the 1999 Atlantic hurricane season. 1999 was forecast to be "above average" in terms in frequency, intensity and duration in both the early June and early August forecasts by NOAA. The season, did in fact, turn out to be extremely active for intensity and duration and somewhat above normal for total frequency of tropical cyclones. A post-analysis of the season will be shown to help determine how these characteristics came about.
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