Seasonal to Decadal Prediction of the Probability of Hurricane Landfall Along Different US Coastal Locations

An analysis of US tropical cyclone landfall by intensity category (TS, Cat 1, Cat 2, Cat 3 and Cat 4-5) over the last century reveals large differences in coastal location and periods. Variation in major (Cat 3 and Cat 4-5) hurricane frequency by coastal area and period is especially large along the US East Coast. On a statistical basis landfall can be well associated with variations in precursor global atmosphere and ocean conditions.

A hurricane destruction scale has been developed for each cyclone landfall intensity category. This hurricane destruction scale shows even larger coastal and period variations. A forecast scheme for specifying season to season variations of hurricane landfall probability and destruction potential is presented.