Extended range forecasting of Atlantic and US landfalling tropical cyclones

UK scientists have developed the longest range forecast yet for Atlantic and US landfalling tropical cyclones, a year ahead of the season. The forecast is custom designed to benefit the needs of insurers and risk managers when renewing their windstorm policies. The fundamental principle underlying the model is to forecast probability distributions for tropical cyclone occurrence. In this way imperfection in the forecast is recognised while at the same time providing quantitative information. We will describe the forecast model, the predictors, its hindcast skill performance against other extended range Atlantic hurricane forecast models, and our predictions for the 2000 Atlantic hurricane season.