Business Case for the National Hurricane Center

Under the "Government Performance and Results Act" programs are justified on the basis of demonstrated benefits. For several years the U.S. Hurricane Warning Program has been justified on the basis of assumed reduction of lives lost. While research has pointed to improving forecasts to reduce the wasted preparation costs associated with over warning. This study develops mortality and damage rates for historical hurricanes. Mortality rates show a dramatic decline over this century which can be attributed to the effectiveness of the warning program and emergency management. However, damage rates (per capita) do not indicate a positive trend.