A prototype real-time wind and wave forecasting system for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin

A prototype tropical cyclone (TC) wind and wave forecasting scheme has been developed to produce real-time wind and wave forecast fields (T0 to T=72 hours) for TC in the Atlantic basin. A two-dimensional planetary boundary layer wind model is applied, using the objective wind analysis scheme developed by Powell (1995) for initialization, with the resulting wind stresses driving a three-dimensional wave model. The output will include 17.5 m/s, 26 m/s, and 33 m/s wind radii which are among the primary forecast parameters issued by the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) in the Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory product. The significant wave height forecast fields will also be produced, including the 12-foot threshold radii issued by TPC/NHC. Results from several case studies will be shown.