Numerical predictions of rainfall in Hurricane Floyd (1999)

A series of numerical simulations of the landfall of Hurricane Floyd (1999) are used to investigate the production and predictability of the storm's rainfall. These simulations are performed with the Penn State/NCAR nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5) using different grid resolutions, initial conditions, and combinations of physical parameterizations, including both an explicit moisture scheme and the Betts-Miller cumulus parameterization. The sensitivity of the rainfall forecasts to model processes and configurations are examined in order to improve predictability for future tropical cyclones. The simulations are compared to gauge and radar rainfall estimates, and also to rainfall predictions by the GFDL hurricane model and other numerical forecasts for the same time period.