14C.3 Changes in the rates of North Atlantic major hurricane activity during the 20th century

Friday, 26 May 2000: 1:45 PM
J. B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. Jagger and X. Niu

We document and explain changes in the rates of North Atlantic major hurricanes over the 20th century. Statistical analyses identify two contrasting regimes of activity. The regimes have significantly different occurrence rates that coincide with important changes in the climate over the North Atlantic. In conjunction with the recent Arctic warming, it appears that we are beginning a new period of greater major hurricane activity across the North Atlantic.

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