A review of the UK Met. Office global model tropical cyclone forecasting performance 1990–2000

In late 1994, the UK Meteorological Office (UKMO) introduced a new method for initialising tropical cyclones in its global model. This resulted in an immediate reduction in track forecast errors of around 30%. In the following years, this improvement was maintained and UKMO global model forecasts in 1995 and 1998 were the best guidance available to the National Hurricane Center. Moreover, results for the 1998/9 southern hemisphere season and the 1999 northern hemisphere season showed another reduction in track forecast errors of approximately 20%.

This paper will review the UKMO global model tropical cyclone track forecasting performance since 1995. Intercomparisons with other forecast models will be presented, together with details of models changes which may have affected this performance. Results from recent trials of enhancements to the tropical cyclone initialisation scheme will also be presented.