Caribbean Sea tropical cyclones variations and tendencies

In this paper the behavior of tropical cyclones that develop and intensify on the Caribbean Sea during the period 1886 - 1999 is analyzed. For it, the return periods by months, the tendencies in different periods and the possible climate change points were determined. The cyclonic activity presents multi - decade variations, with the more active period between 1930 - 1949. A tendency to a statistically significant decrement since 1955 to 1980s for tropical storms was observed; the tropical cyclonic activity was recovered at the end of the 1990s. The hurricane series is homogeneous, although the cyclonic inactivity is remarkable in the 1980s, with the intensification of only one hurricane on the studied area. The tropical cyclonic activity recovery is more evident in October, month with the major observed frequency.