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Session 1A CBLAST I
| 8:30 AM | 1A.1 | An overview of CBLAST flights into Hurricanes Fabian and Isabel (2003)   Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL | |
| 8:45 AM | 1A.2 | Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling Experiments In Hurricanes Fabian and Isabel (2003) Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. E. Tenerelli, W. Zhao, and M. A. Donelan | |
| 9:00 AM | 1A.3 | 3-D atmospheric boundary layer wind fields from hurricanes Fabian and Isabel Daniel Esteban Fernandez, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA; and S. Frasier, J. Carswell, P. Chang, P. G. Black, and F. D. Marks, Jr. | |
| 9:15 AM | 1A.4 | A web application for near real time distribution of tropical cyclone heat potential estimates Joaquin A. Trinanes, Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and G. J. Goni | |
| 9:30 AM | 1A.5 | Testing global estimates of the tropical cyclone heat potential fields to improve hurricane intensification prediction Gustavo J. Goni, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and M. DeMaria, J. A. Trinanes, and P. G. Black | |
| 9:45 AM | 1A.6 | Turbulent flux measurements within a hurricane boundary layer from an instrumented aircraft Jeffrey R. French, NOAA/ARL, Idaho Falls, ID; and P. G. Black | |
| 10:00 AM | 1A.7 | Measurements of humidity fluxes in Hurricanes Fabian and Isabel with a modified William M. Drennan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. A. McCormick and P. Black |
Session 1B CONVECTION, waves, and precipitation I
Session 1C Tropical Cyclogenesis I
| 8:30 AM | 1C.1 | Tropical Cyclone formation mechanisms in the BMRC Tropical Cyclone Limited Area Prediction System (TC-LAPS) Kevin J. Tory, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and M. T. Montgomery and N. E. Davidson | |
| 8:45 AM | 1C.2 | Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Western North Pacific Using Operational Global Models Caroline A. Bower, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Harr and R. L. Elsberry | |
| 9:00 AM | 1C.3 | Predictability of tropical cyclogenesis in JMA ensemble prediction system Tetsuo Nakazawa, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Kyouda and M. Yamaguchi | |
| 9:13 AM | 1C.4 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Poster Number P1.92 | ||
| 9:14 AM | 1C.5 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Poster Number P1.93 | ||
| 9:15 AM | 1C.6 | A mesoscale modeling study of the formation of an African disturbance preceding tropical cyclogenesis Christopher M. Hill, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y.-L. Lin | |
| 9:30 AM | 1C.7 | Tropical transition: Tropical cyclone formation from extratropical disturbances Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. F. Bosart |
Coffee Break
Session 2A CBLAST II
| 10:45 AM | 2A.1 | Surface fluxes at high wind speeds deduced from dense dropwindsonde deployments in Hurricanes Fabian and Isabel William D. Ramstrom, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel | |
| 11:00 AM | 2A.2 | Air-sea momentum flux at high winds Tetsu Hara, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and S. E. Belcher, I. Ginis, and I.-J. Moon | |
| 11:15 AM | 2A.3 | Surface gravity wave measurements in Hurricanes Fabian (2003) and Humberto (2001) Edward J. Walsh, NASA/GSFC, Wallops Island, VA; and C. W. Wright, D. C. Vandemark, S. E. Feuer, P. Black, and F. D. Marks, Jr. | |
| 11:30 AM | 2A.4 | Effect of ocean waves on air-sea momentum fluxes and hurricane intensity Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I.-J. Moon, B. Thomas, and T. Hara | |
| 11:45 AM | 2A.5 | In-situ Measurements of the Air-Sea Interface During Hurricane Fabian Eric J. Terrill, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla,, CA; and W. K. Melville |
Session 2B Convection, waves, and precipitation II
| 10:45 AM | 2B.1 | Mean State and Wave Disturbances During Phases I, II, and III of GATE Based on ERA-40 Andreas H. Fink, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; and D. G. Vincent, P. M. Reiner, and P. Speth | |
| 11:00 AM | 2B.2 | African dry-air outbreaks Jeremy T. Pennington, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang | |
| 11:15 AM | 2B.3 | Origins of African dry-air outbreaks Phoebe Anne Woodworth, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL | |
| 11:30 AM | 2B.4 | The interaction of Afrcian dust and dry-air outbreaks Xiaoyu Liu, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, miami, FL | |
| 11:45 AM | 2B.5 | Analysis of the African Easterly Jet using aircraft observations from the JET2000 experiment Douglas J. Parker, School of the Environment, Leeds, United Kingdom; and C. D. Thorncroft, R. R. Burton, and A. Diongue | |
| 12:00 PM | 2B.6 | Observations of African easterly waves and MCSs during the JET2000 campaign in August 2000 Chris Thorncroft, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. J. Parker, G. J. Berry, and R. R. Burton |
Session 2C Tropical Cyclogenesis II
| 10:45 AM | 2C.1 | The effects of vertical wind shear on the formation of Hurricane Gabrielle (2001) Presentation v4.ppt Kate Musgrave, UCAR/SOARS and Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. A. Davis and M. T. Montgomery | |
| 11:00 AM | 2C.2 | Relationships between tropical waves and cyclogenesis William M. Frank, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and P. E. Roundy | |
| 11:15 AM | 2C.3 | Paradigms of tropical cyclogenesis in the Western Pacific John E. Molinari, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Vollaro, K. Lombardo, and C. Schreck | |
| 11:30 AM | 2C.4 | Characteristic Fields associated with Tropical Cyclone Formations Kevin K. W. Cheung, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry | |
| 11:44 AM | Paper 2C.5 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Poster Number P1.90 | ||
| 11:45 AM | 2C.5a | Analysis of Operational Model Forecast Trends in Extratropical Transition Storm Structure Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and J. M. Arnott | |
| 11:59 AM | 2C.6 | A New Product for Estimating the Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO; and C. W. Anderson, J. A. Knaff, and B. H. Connell |
Lunch Break
Session 3A CBLAST III
| 1:30 PM | 3A.1 | Breaking waves in hurricanes Isabel & Fabian J.M. Kleiss, SIO/Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and W. K. Melville, J. R. Lasswell, P. Matusov, and E. Terrill | |
| 1:45 PM | 3A.2 | Impacts of breaking waves and Langmuir circulations on the ocean mixed layer in high winds Peter P. Sullivan, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. C. McWilliams and W. K. Melville | |
| 2:00 PM | 3A.3 | Sea spray droplet measurements in hurricanes Fabian and Isabel C. W. Fairall, NOAA/ETL, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Hare and A. A. Grachev | |
| 2:15 PM | 3A.4 | Impact of Sea Spray Parameterization on Hurricane Development in COAMPS Shouping Wang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin and C.-S. Liou | |
| 2:30 PM | 3A.5 | Effects of sea spray in large-eddy simulation of the hurricane boundary layer Mark Kelly, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and J. C. Wyngaard and W. Frank |
Session 3B Monsoon I
| 1:30 PM | 3B.1 | Tropical-extratropical interactions causing precipitation in Northwest and West Africa: Part I: Synoptic evolution and climatological relevance Michael Christoph, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; and A. H. Fink and P. Knippertz | |
| 1:45 PM | 3B.2 | Tropical-extratropical interactions causing precipitation in Northwest and West Africa: Part II: Dynamics Peter Knippertz, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and A. H. Fink and J. E. Martin | |
| 3B.3 | PAPER WITHDRAWN | ||
| 2:00 PM | 3B.3a | Experiments on Intraseasonal Prediction Using the NCEP Global Forecast System Coupled to the MOM3 Ocean Model Stephen J. Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and W. Wang, S. Saha, and H.-L. Pan | |
| 2:15 PM | 3B.4 | The intra-seasonal variability of convection in the West African monsoon Flore Mounier, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau, France; and S. Janicot | |
| 2:30 PM | 3B.5 | The influence of the land surface on the dynamics of the West African Monsoon. R J Ellis, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and D. J. Parker and C. M. Taylor | |
| 2:45 PM | 3B.6 | Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales Alessandra Giannini, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction/Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and R. Saravanan and P. Chang | |
| 3:00 PM | 3B.7 | An Idealized Approach of the West African Monsoon Philippe Peyrillé, CNRM, Météo-France, and CNRS, Toulouse, France; and C. Piriou, J.-P. Lafore, and J.-L. Redelsperger |
Session 3C Tropical Cyclogenesis III
| 1:30 PM | 3C.1 | Prediction of African easterly waves by The FSU Superensemble Robert S. Ross, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti | |
| 1:45 PM | 3C.2 | Gathering in-situ data using aircraft reconnaissance to investigate incipient tropical cyclogenesis Richard G. Henning, 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, Keesler AFB, MS | |
| 2:00 PM | 3C.3 | The Madden-Julian Oscillation and tropical cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Mexico Anantha R. Aiyyer, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. E. Molinari | |
| 2:15 PM | 3C.4 | Surface evidence of tropical cyclogenesis Mark A. Bourassa, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and P. Cunningham and P. D. Reasor | |
| 2:30 PM | 3C.5 | GCM simulation of the dynamics of a precursor to Hurricane Alberto over West Africa Michelle Ann Felton, University of Leeds, UK, Leeds, United Kingdom; and D. J. Parker and C. M. Taylor | |
| 3C.6 | PAPER WITHDRAWN | ||
| 2:45 PM | 3C.7 | A statistical model for forecasting tropical cyclogenesis over the Atlantic Basin Christopher C. Hennon, UCAR Visiting Scientist Program, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL |
Session 3D Tropical cyclone observations and structure I
Coffee Break
Session 4A Tropical Cyclones and Vertical Shear
Session 4B Monsoon II
| 3:45 PM | 4B.1 | Radiation budget data sets for monsoon studies G. Louis Smith, LaRC, Hampton, VA | |
| 4:00 PM | 4B.2 | Recent PACS-SONET observations of relevance to North American Monsoon Experiment Michael Douglas, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Murillo and J. F. Mejia | |
| 4:15 PM | 4B.3 | Extratropical-tropical interaction during onset of the Australian monsoon Noel E. Davidson, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and K. J. Tory and M. J. Reeder | |
| 4:30 PM | 4B.4 | Numerical investigation of the 2002 monsoon onset Maria K. Flatau, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. May and J. Cummings | |
| 4:45 PM | 4B.5 | Relationship between the Tibetan Plateau heating and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall Huang-Hsiung Hsu, National Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and X. Liu | |
| 5:00 PM | 4B.6 | Lag of the atmosphere-land system in the seasonal cycle of monsoons Brian E. Mapes, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO; and P. Liu |
Session 4C tropical cyclogenesis IV
| 4C.1 | PAPER WITHDRAWN | ||
| 3:45 PM | 4C.2 | The Effects of asymmetric Momentum on the Genesis of Tropical Cyclone Yamei Xu, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China; and R. Wu | |
| 4:00 PM | 4C.3 | Long-term Behavior of the Rotunno-Emanuel Tropical Cyclone Model Winston C. Chao, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and B. Chen | |
| 4:15 PM | 4C.4 | Observational Analysis and Numerical Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Energy Dispersion and Associated Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific Tim Li, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Fu, X. Ge, B. Wang, Y. Zhu, and Y. Wang | |
| 4:30 PM | 4C.5 | Influence of equatorial Rossby waves on tropical cyclogenesis in the Western Pacific Kelly Lombardo, SUNY, Albany, NY | |
| 4:45 PM | 4C.6 | A closer look at vortical hot towers in a tropical cyclogenesis environment Andrea B. Saunders, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado |
Session 4D tropical cyclone observations and structure II
| 3:45 PM | 4D.1 | Upgrades to the UW-CIMSS AMSU-based tropical cyclone intensity estimation algorithm Derrick C. Herndon, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, K. Brueske, R. Wacker, and B. Kabat | |
| 4:00 PM | 4D.2 | Tropical Cyclone Wind Retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU): Application to Surface Wind Analysis Kotaro Bessho, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and M. DeMaria, J. A. Knaff, and J. L. Demuth | |
| 4D.3 | PAPER WITHDRAWN | ||
| 4:15 PM | 4D.4 | Separation of hurricane and environmental winds via single-Doppler radar volumetric data analysis: Results from Hurricanes Bret (1999) Paul R. Harasti, UCAR Visiting Scientist Program, NRL, Monterey, CA | |
| 4:30 PM | 4D.5 | Multiple eyewall structure of Hurricane Juliette 2001 Brian D. McNoldy, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. D. Eastin, C. M. Rozoff, and W. H. Schubert | |
| 4:45 PM | 4D.6 | Mesovortices in Hurricane Isabel (2003): A comparison of satellite, radar, and photographic observations Michael L. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. P. Dunion, J. P. Kossin, W. H. Schubert, C. S. Velden, P. G. Black, R. Zehr, and S. D. Aberson |
Ice Breaker Reception
Session 5A Tropical cyclone Rainfall I
| 8:00 AM | 5A.1 | Temporal and spatial variations of precipitation of landfall typhoons in the Taiwan area Ben Jong-Dao Jou, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan | |
| 8:15 AM | 5A.2 | A Climatological Model for Forecasting Typhoon Rainfall in Taiwan Cheng-shang Lee, National Taiwan University and National S&T Center for Disaster Reduction, Taipei, Taiwan | |
| 8:30 AM | 5A.3 | Precipitation processes associated with the landfalling Typhoon Nari (2001) Ming-Jen Yang, National Central University, Chung-Li, Taiwan; and H.-L. Huang | |
| 5A.4 | PAPER WITHDRAWN | ||
| 8:45 AM | 5A.5 | The radar rainfall estimate for torrential rain during Typhoon Nair (2001) Pay-Liam Lin, National Central University, Chung-Li, Taiwan; and T. C. Wang, W.-Y. Chang, and H.-H. Lin | |
| 9:00 AM | 5A.6 | The precipitation mechanisms of typhoon Nari(2001) revealed by radar observation Tai-Chi Chen Wang, National Central Univ., Chung-Li, Taiwan; and P.-L. Lin, W.-Y. Chang, K.-S. Chung, S.-H. Lin, and J.-H. Teng | |
| 9:15 AM | 5A.7 | Gauging tropical rainfall potential with a blended satellite technique F. Joseph Turk, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. D. Hawkins |
Session 5B CONVECTION, waves, and precipitation III
Session 5C Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability I: Track
| 8:00 AM | 5C.1 | Estimation of Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Uncertainty James S. Goerss, NRL, Monterey, CA | |
| 8:15 AM | 5C.2 | Testing of a Revised Model Track Prediction Evaluation Expert System Mark A. Boothe, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry and D. P. Roberts | |
| 8:30 AM | 5C.3 | Tropical cyclone forecasting using climatology and NWP output Bradford S. Barrett, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie | |
| 8:45 AM | 5C.4 | Statistical-Dynamical guidance for tropical storm track forecasting Brian J. Etherton, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and N. A. Samra | |
| 8:59 AM | Paper 5C.5 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Poster Number P1.91 | ||
| 9:00 AM | 5C.6 | Tropical cyclone ensemble forecast product development and verification at the Met Office Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and S. Robinson, C. Woolcock, and K. Mylne | |
| 9:15 AM | 5C.7 | Evaluation of a Kilo-Member Ensemble for Track Forecasting Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO |
Session 5D tropical cyclone observations and structure III
Coffee Break
Session 6A tropical cyclone rainfall II
| 10:15 AM | 6A.1 | Classification of tropical oceanic precipitation using high altitude aircraft microwave and electric field measurements Robbie E. Hood, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and D. Cecil, F. J. LaFontaine, R. Blakeslee, D. Mach, G. M. Heymsfield, and F. D. Marks, Jr. | |
| 10:30 AM | 6A.2 | Intercomparison of polarimetric radar, profiler and disdrometer observations of tropical precipitation during CAMEX-4/KAMP Justin T. Walters, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and D. Kim, K. R. Knupp, C. R. Williams, E. N. Anagnostou, and A. Tokay | |
| 6A.3 | PAPER WITHDRAWN | ||
| 10:45 AM | 6A.4 | Evaulation of rainfall forecasts from the operational GFDL hurricane model Robert Tuleya, SAIC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Norfolk, VA; and M. DeMaria and R. J. Kuligowski | |
| 11:00 AM | 6A.5 | A comparison of GFDL, GFS and Eta model rainfall forecasts for U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones for 1998–2003 Timothy Marchok, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. Tuleya and R. Rogers | |
| 6A.6 | PAPER WITHDRAWN |
Session 6B Convection, waves, and precipitation IV
| 10:15 AM | 6B.1 | Tropical convection and surface wind convergence using spacebased data W. Timothy Liu, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and X. Xie | |
| 10:30 AM | 6B.2 | Small-scale variability of rainfall in the tropical and sub-tropical regions A. K. Varma, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and G. Liu | |
| 10:45 AM | 6B.3 | Convective and Stratiform Rain Variations from TRMM Observations Song Yang, George Mason University, greenbelt, MD; and K.-S. Kuo and E. A. Smith | |
| 11:00 AM | 6B.4 | Spectral retrieval of latent heating profiles from TRMM PR data: Comparison of look-up tables Shoichi Shige, Japan Exploration Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and Y. N. Takayabu, W.-K. Tao, D. E. Johnson, and C.-L. Shie | |
| 11:15 AM | 6B.5 | Latent heating retrieval from TRMM observations using a simplified thermodynamic model Mircea Grecu, University of Maryland, Baltimore County and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and W. S. Olson | |
| 11:30 AM | 6B.6 | Evaluation of satellite-based latent heating profile estimation methods William S. Olson, JCET/University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and M. Grecu, S. Yang, and W.-K. Tao |
Session 6C Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability II: Track and Intensity
| 10:15 AM | 6C.1 | Dropsonde observations for typhoon surveillance near the Taiwan region (DOTSTAR): An overview Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and P.-H. Lin, T.-C. Yeh, and S. D. Aberson | |
| 10:29 AM | Paper 6C.2 has been moved to Poster Session P1, New Paper Number P1.99 | ||
| 10:30 AM | 6C.3 | Targeting strategies to improve hurricane track forecasts S. J. Majumdar, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and S. D. Aberson, B. J. Etherton, L. D. Holland, Z. Toth, and C. H. Bishop | |
| 10:45 AM | 6C.4 | Impact of high resolution water vapor measurements from airborne lidar on hurricane characterization and forecasting Edward V. Browell, NASA/LARC, Hampton, VA; and S. Ismail, R. A. Ferrare, R. Kamineni, T. N. Krishnamurti, and S. Pattnaik | |
| 11:00 AM | 6C.5 | Reducing large tropical cyclone forecast errors using high-resolution satellite and radar data Milton S. Speer, Bureau of Meteorology, Sydney, NSW, Australia; and L. M. Leslie, J. F. LeMarshall, and L. Qi | |
| 11:15 AM | 6C.6 | Probabilistic prediction of tropical-cyclone position and intensity Harry C. Weber, University of Munich, Munich, Germany |
Session 6D tropical cyclone observations and structure IV
| 10:15 AM | 6D.1 | Retrieval of hydrometeor profiles in tropical cyclones and convection by a combined radar-radiometer algorithm Haiyan Jiang, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. J. Zipser | |
| 10:30 AM | 6D.2 | Observed vortex and thermodynamic structure of Hurricane Isabel at maximum intensity Michael M. Bell, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins and NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. T. Montgomery, M. L. Black, and S. D. Aberson | |
| 10:45 AM | 6D.3 | Boundary Layer Wind Profiles in Hurricane Fabian Mark P. Guishard, Penn State University, University Park, PA | |
| 11:00 AM | 6D.4 | Hurricane's evolution and latent heating profile structure Corinne Burlaud, CETP, Velizy, France; and N. Viltard | |
| 11:15 AM | 6D.5 | Atmospheric water vapor and tropical cyclone intensity changes Derek Ortt, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen | |
| 11:30 AM | 6D.6 | A Numerical Investigation of Slabular Convection and Moist Absolute Instability in Hurricane Isabel Jeremy D. Ross, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and R. James, C. Hosler, J. M. Fritsch, and G. Bryan |
Lunch Break
Session 7A 30 years of the Dvorak technique: Part I
| 1:30 PM | 7A.1 | The early days of the Dvorak Technique at the National Hurricane Center Max Mayfield, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL | |
| 1:45 PM | 7A.2 | Tropical cyclone intensity estimates using satellite data: the early years. Frank H. Wells, NOAA/NWSFO, Barrigada, Guam | |
| 2:00 PM | 7A.3 | The longivity of the Dvorak TC intensity technique in the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions Charles Guard, NOAA/NWSFO, Tiyan, Guam | |
| 2:15 PM | 7A.4 | The Dvorak technique through time John L. Beven, II, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL | |
| 2:30 PM | 7A.5 | Monsoon depressions, monsoon gyres, midget tropical cyclones, TUTT cells, and high intensity after recurvature: Lessons learned from the use of Dvorak’s techniques in the world’s most prolific tropical-cyclone basin. Mark A. Lander, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam | |
| 2:45 PM | Discussion |
Session 7B intraseasonal variability I
Coffee Break
Session 8A 30 years of the dvorak technique: Part II
| 3:45 PM | 8A.1 | Globalisation, calibration and opportunities for future enhancement of the Dvorak technique Bruce A. Harper, Systems Engineering Australia Pty Ltd, Brisbane, Australia | |
| 4:00 PM | 8A.2 | Uses of microwave imagery as a supplement to the Dvorak technique, an integrated technique Roger T. Edson, Anteon Corporation, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam | |
| 4:15 PM | 8A.3 | The Objective Dvorak Technique—historical perspective Raymond Zehr, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO | |
| 4:30 PM | 8A.4 | The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT)—Continuing the Journey Timothy L. Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden | |
| 4:45 PM | 8A.11A | Concluding Remarks by Lixion A. Avila |
Session 8B Intraseasonal variability II
| 3:45 PM | 8B.1 | Climatological spatial and temporal features of the Madden-Julian oscillation Wen-wen Tung, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis | |
| 4:00 PM | 8B.2 | A comparison of the convective and heating structures in Kelvin waves and the Madden-Julian Oscillation Katherine H. Straub, Susquehanna University, Selinsgrove, PA; and G. N. Kiladis and P. T. Haertel | |
| 4:15 PM | 8B.3 | A New Multi-Scale Model for the Tropical Intra-seasonal Oscillation Andrew Majda, New York University, New York, NY; and J. Biello | |
| 4:30 PM | 8B.4 | Ocean-atmosphere interaction and intraseasonal oscillations in the modified NCAR CAM2.0.1 coupled to slab oceans of varying depths Eric D. Maloney, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR; and A. H. Sobel | |
| 8B.5 | PAPER WITHDRAWN | ||
| 4:45 PM | 8B.6 | Pursuing realistic intra-seasonal wave modes using a novel approach to convective parameterization Richard B. Neale, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; and B. E. Mapes |
Session 9 Advances in hurricane forecasting and research during the past 50 years
| 8:00 AM | 9.1 | A personal view of the progress in tropical meteorology over the last 50 years Gray-26th-Miami-5-04.ppt William M. Gray, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO | |
| 8:15 AM | 9.2 | 50 Years of Progress in Tropical Cyclone Modeling Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Ft. Collins, CO | |
| 8:30 AM | 9.3 | The P-3 Era of Airborne Hurricane Research Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International University, Maimi, FL | |
| 8:45 AM | 9.4 | The G-IV Surveillance Era, Targeting, and Ensemble Forecasts (1997–Present) Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL | |
| 9:00 AM | Discussion |
Coffee Break
Session 10A Tropical Cyclones and Climate
| 10:15 AM | 10A.1 | Verification of the OCSI Atlantic Hurricane Predictions Since 1985 hasling04.ppt Jill F. Hasling, Weather Research Center, Houston, TX; and J. C. Freeman | |
| 10:30 AM | 10A.2 | Tropical cyclone activity and the global climate system Kerry A. Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and D. S. Nolan | |
| 10:45 AM | 10A.3 | Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and R. E. Tuleya | |
| 11:00 AM | 10A.4 | Climate Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activities in Western North Pacific Ocean Ming Xu, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China; and M. Ying and Q. Yang | |
| 11:15 AM | 10A.5 | Global Warming and Tropical Cyclone Intensity from an Observational Perspective Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and K. S. Liu | |
| 11:30 AM | 10A.6 | Florida hurricane decline linked to surface warming James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. H. Jagger | |
| 11:45 AM | 10A.7 | Cluster analysis of western North Pacific tropical cyclone tracks Suzana J. Camargo, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, NY; and A. W. Robertson, S. J. Gaffney, and P. Smyth |
Session 11B interannual variablity II (Note new session start time from the original published program)
Session 10C Tropical Cyclone Prediction and Predictability III: Operational Models
| 10:15 AM | 10C.1 | Recent Progress in Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasting with NCEP's Models. Part I. Stephen Lord, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and N. Surgi, Q. Liu, H.-L. Pan, R. Tuleya, M. Bender, T. Marchok, I. Ginis, A. Falkovich, and W. Shen | |
| 10:30 AM | 10C.2 | Recent Progress in Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasting with NCEP's Models. Part II. Naomi Surgi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Q. Liu, H.-L. Pan, R. Tuleya, M. Bender, T. Marchok, and W. Shen | |
| 10:45 AM | 10C.3 | A Summary of Ugrades to the Operational GFDL Hurricane Model for 2003 Morris A. Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. Marchok, I. Ginis, B. Thomas, R. E. Tuleya, and H.-L. Pan | |
| 11:00 AM | 10C.4 | An examination of hurricane Debby (2000) with the 2000 and 2003 versions of the GFDL hurricane prediction system Jamie R. Rhome, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and R. D. Knabb and M. A. Bender | |
| 11:15 AM | 10C.5 | Recent Improvements to Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecast Chi-Sann Liou, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin | |
| 11:30 AM | 10C.6 | An analysis of operational numerical weather forecasting errors for the landfall of Hurricane Juan (2003) John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and R. J. McTaggart-Cowan |
Session 10D tropical cyclone observations and structure V
| 10D.1 | PAPER WITHDRAWN | ||
| 10D.2 | PAPER WITHDRAWN | ||
| 10:15 AM | 10D.3 | The formation of concentric vorticity structures in typhoons H.-C. Kuo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C.-P. Chang and R. T. Williams | |
| 10:30 AM | 10D.4 | The Dynamic Characteristics of Typhoon Vortex Spiral Wave and its Transportation: Diagnostic Analyses Xiangde Xu, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and S. Zhang, L. Chen, and F. Wei | |
| 10:45 AM | 10D.5 | The climatology of hurricane wind profiles Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and M. E. Rahn | |
| 11:00 AM | 10D.6 | Tropical cyclone near-core radial structure from aircraft observations: Implications for vortex resiliency Kevin J. Mallen, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI |
Lunch Break
Poster Session 1 Posters
| P1.1 | What are the Dominant Mode and Cause of the Interannual Variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon? Bin Wang, IPRC University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and X. Fu and T. Li | |
| P1.2 | Verification of tropical cyclone genesis forecasts from the TPC's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) Daniel P. Brown, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL; and R. Molleda and R. J. Pasch | |
| P1.3 | Various applications on tropical convective systems using a cloud resolving model (CRM) Chung-Lin Shie, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt and Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and W.-K. Tao and J. Simpson | |
| P1.4 | Validation and improvement of moist physical processes in a GCM Jui-Lin F. Li, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and L. Takacs, A. Hou, and W. S. Olson | |
| P1.5 | Utilizing a Local Data Assimilation and Prognostic System to Aid with the Timing, Placement, and Impact of Short-Range Tropical Weather Hazards Justin J. Mosely, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL; and S. M. Spratt | |
| P1.6 | Tropical cyclones in the Australian region: modeling future climate Lance M. Leslie, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and B. W. Buckley, M. Leplastrier, and M. S. Speer | |
| P1.7 | Tropical cyclone multiple eyewall characteristics Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Helveston | |
| P1.8 | Tropical cyclone analysis techniques from QuikSCAT NRCS, wind and ambiguity data and microwave imagery Roger T. Edson, Anteon Corporation, University of Guam, Mangilao, Guam | |
| P1.9 | Toward an objective satellite-based algorithm to provide real-time estimates of TC intensity using integrated multispectral (IR and MW) observations Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. P. Kossin, T. L. Olander, D. Herndon, A. J. Wimmers, R. Wacker, K. F. Brueske, B. W. Kabat, J. D. Hawkins, R. T. Edson, and M. DeMaria | |
| P1.10 | Tornadic outbreaks associated with landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic basin Stephanie M. Nordin, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and H. E. Brooks | |
| P1.11 | Three or four vortexes afectation to the Mexican Republic Enrique Buendía, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, UNAM, México, D. F., Mexico; and F. J. Villicaña and E. Azpra | |
| P1.12 | The sensitivity of modeled hurricanes to the distribution of vertical sigma levels F. Carroll Dougherty, Univ. of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and S. K. Kimball | |
| P1.13 | The role of intraseasonal wave activity in the onset and active-break phases of the Indian monsoon George N. Kiladis, NOAA/AL, Boulder, CO; and M. K. Flatau and P. J. Flatau | |
| P1.14 | The maintenance of a MCC across Northern Africa: A case study and analysis relating to moisture variables and fluxes Katie E. Robertson, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and Y.-L. Lin | |
| P1.15 | The influence of wind-induced atmosphere-ocean exchange on summertime east Pacific intraseasonal oscillations in the modified NCAR CAM2.0.1 Eric D. Maloney, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR | |
| P1.16 | The effects of COADS and other historical accounts of tropical cyclones on the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Re-analysis Project for the years 1935 to 1939 David A. Glenn, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS; and C. W. Landsea and J. C. Rodgers, III | |
| P1.17 | The diurnal cycle of the West African monsoon in observations and numerical model analyses Doug J Parker, University of Leeds, UK, Leeds, United Kingdom | |
| P1.18 | The development of a new validation technique for tropical cyclone rainfall Robert Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and F. D. Marks, Jr., T. P. Marchok, and R. Tuleya | |
| P1.19 | The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT): Latest Upgrades and Future Directions Timothy L. Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden and J. P. Kossin | |
| P1.20 | Subtropical jet disturbances as initiators of convection during BAMEX Lance F. Bosart, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and T. J. Galarneau, Jr. | |
| P1.21 | Studies on secondary eyewall formation Wesley D. Terwey, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO | |
| P1.22 | Strong Updraft Feature Associated with Hurricane Earl During Landfall Barry C. Roberts, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and K. R. Knupp | |
| P1.23 | Statistical forecasting of Pacific and Indian Ocean tropical cyclone intensity using 19-, 37-, and 85- GHz brightness temperatures Daniel J. Cecil, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and T. A. Jones, J. A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria | |
| P1.24 | Simulations of Hurricane Isabel (2003) in the WRF, GFDL, and ZETAC models David S. Nolan, RSMAS/University of Miami, Miami, FL; and M. A. Bender, T. P. Marchok, S. T. Garner, and C. L. Kerr | |
| P1.25 | Severe Thunderstorms over northeastern Queensland on 19 January 2001 Seoleun Shin, Meteorological Institute, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith and J. Callaghan | |
| P1.26 | Sensitivity of the Structure of Hurricane to Spatial Resolution and the Impacts on the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) Henian Zhang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. M. McFarquhar | |
| P1.27 | Seasonal to decadal variability of vertical shear over the tropical Atlantic Anantha R. Aiyyer, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft | |
| P1.28 | Seasonal Rainfall Variability within the West African Monsoon System Robert F. Adler, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Gu | |
| P1.29 | Sea Surface Temperature, Cloud-Radiative Forcing, and Tropical Convection Changhai Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. W. Moncrieff | |
| P1.30 | Saharan Air Layer interaction with Hurricane Claudette (2003) Gabriel S. Rothman, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and C.-B. Chang and T. E. Gill | |
| P1.31 | Roof Damage Issues in Hurricanes Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Carrolloton, TX | |
| P1.32 | PAPER WITHDRAWN | |
| P1.33 | Role of tropical cyclones in large-scale momentum, heat, and moisture budgets Andrew S. Levine, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and K. P. Hamilton | |
| P1.34 | Research on cyclones : Météo-France La Réunion activities S Westrelin, Météo-France, La Réunion, France; and D. Barbary, M. Bessafi, F. Chane-Ming, R. Lee-Ah-Siem, and J.-M. Willemet | |
| P1.35 | Relationships between windspeed and precipitation in the Pacific ITCZ Larissa E. Back, University of Washington, Seattle, WA | |
| P1.36 | Re-examining tropical plumes and subtropical jet streaks Peter Knippertz, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. R. Mecikalski | |
| P1.37 | Re-Analysis of the September 18, 1936 and Great Atlantic Hurricane of September 14, 1944 in Virginia |