* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Program Chairpersons:
Richard W. Katz, NCAR
Cecile Penland, NOAA/CIRES/CDC

Compact View of Conference

Sunday, 20 January 2008
	7:30 AM-9:30 AM, Sunday 2008 Short Course Registration
	9:00 AM-6:00 PM, Sunday 2008 Conference Registration
	12:00 PM-4:00 PM, Sunday 2008, Exhibit Hall B 7th Annual WeatherFest
Monday, 21 January 2008
	7:30 AM-5:30 PM, Monday 2008 Registration continues through Thursday, 24 January
	9:00 AM-10:15 AM, Monday 2008, 219 Session 1 Ensemble Forecasting Including Post Processing I
Chairs: Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; David W. Titley, Navy Meteorology and Oceanography Command, Stennis Space Center, MS
9:00 AM 1.1 Impact of a stochastic perturbation scheme on global ensemble forecast   Dingchen Hou, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC and SAIC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and W. Yang 9:15 AM 1.2 Medium-range ensemble forecasting with a local ensemble transform Kalman filter and JMA bred- and singular-vector EPS   Takemasa Miyoshi, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and R. Sakai, M. Yamaguchi, and Y. Sato 9:30 AM 1.3 Assessing Predictability of Atmospheric Predictability with an Ensemble Kalman Filter   Elizabeth A. Satterfield, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and I. Szunyogh 9:45 AM 1.4 Ensemble forecasts based on ET with rescaling   Mozheng Wei, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and R. Wobus 10:00 AM 1.5 Objective Analysis Using Modelled Correlation Structure   Albert R. Boehm, retired, Huntsville, AL
	10:15 AM-10:45 AM, Monday 2008 Coffee Break (Mon a.m.)
	10:45 AM-11:45 AM, Monday 2008, 219 Session 2 Ensemble Forecasting Including Post Processing II
Chairs: Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; David W. Titley, Navy Meteorology and Oceanography Command
10:45 AM 2.1 Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds   Tilmann Gneiting, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. Stanberry, E. P. Grimit, and N. A. Johnson 11:00 AM 2.2 Ensemble based probabilistic forecast verification   Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth 11:15 AM 2.3 Calibration of Probabilistic ECMWF and GFS Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts Using Reforecasts   Tom Hamill, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and R. Hagedorn and J. Whitaker 2.4 Assumed PDF reforecasting   Vincent E. Larson, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI
	11:45 AM-1:30 PM, Monday 2008 Opening Plenary Session Featuring Mayor Nagin of New Orleans (Cash & Carry Lunch)
	1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Monday 2008, 219 Session 3 Ensemble Forecasting Including Post Processing III
Chairs: Tom Hamill, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; Tilmann Gneiting, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
1:30 PM 3.1 Combined approaches for ensemble post-processing   Thomas M. Hopson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. P. Hacker 1:45 PM 3.2 A regime-dependent bias correction approach   Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and G. DiMego 2:00 PM 3.3 Probabilistic ensemble MOS forecasts of a continuous variable   Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and M. Peroutka, J. R. Wiedenfeld, J. Wagner, and B. Jackson 2:15 PM 3.4 Probability forecasts for water levels at the coast of the Netherlands   Hans De Vries, KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday 2008, Exhibit Hall B Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (mon p.m.)
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday 2008, Exhibit Hall B Joint Poster Session 1 Tropical Cyclones and Probability/Statistics Posters (Joint between the Tropical Meteorology Special Symposium and the 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics)
Cochairs: Robert Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; C.écile Penland, NOAA/ESRL/PSD3, Boulder, CO; Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO
JP1.1 Reduction of boundary layer dropsonde winds to estimate surface winds and their comparison with SFMR data in landfalling Hurricane Katrina   Richard G. Henning, Consulting Meteorologist, Niceville, FL   JP1.2 National Hurricane Center forecast verification   James L. Franklin, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC, Miami, FL   JP1.3 Employing Hurricane Wind Probabilities to Convey Forecast Uncertainty and Potential Impact through NWS Field Office Forecast Products   Pablo Santos, NOAA/NWS, Miami, FL; and D. W. Sharp, G. Rader, and M. Volkmer   JP1.4 The Hurricane Severity Index – A New Way of Estimating a Tropical Cyclone's Destructive Potential   Chris Hebert, ImpactWeather, Inc., Houston, TX; and B. Weinzapfel and M. Chambers   JP1.5 Development of a new storm surge index for prediction of storm surge associated with landfalling tropical cyclones   Mark R. Jordan II, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and C. A. Clayson   JP1.6 The accuracy of the slosh model in predicting the flooding of the chesapeake bay region during Hurricane Isabel   Kathleen Nicole Inde, United States Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and D. R. Smith   JP1.7 Using uncertainty information to improve hurricane impact communication   Barry S. Goldsmith, NOAA/NWS, Ruskin, FL; and R. J. Ricks   JP1.8 Radiance assimilation in a mesoscale model for improving Hurricane Track Forecast   Zhiquan Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and H. Lin, D. Barker, and J. Xu   JP1.9 Deconstructing the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter adaptive sampling methodology for tropical cyclones   Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL   JP1.10 Impact of GPS Radio Occultation Observations on Ensemble Analyses and Forecasts of Tropical Storms   Hui Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Anderson, Y. H. Kuo, Y. Chen, and C. Snyder   JP1.11 Hurricane Initialization Using TOMS Ozone Data   Yonghui Wu, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and X. Zou   JP1.12 Observing System Experiments for Three Targeting Techniques in the Atlantic Basin   S. D. Aberson, AOML/Hurricane Research, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar, M. S. Peng, and C. A. Reynolds   JP1.13 Use of radar data for TC initialization and intensity forecasts   Jin-Luen Lee, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and A. E. MacDonald, W. Lee, and W. Wang   JP1.14 A preferred scale for warm core instability in a non-convective moist basic state   Brian H. Kahn, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. M. Sinton   JP1.15 Secondary eyewall formation in two idealized, full-physics modeled hurricanes   Wesley D. Terwey, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and M. T. Montgomery   JP1.16 Comparison of deep convection in the outer rainbands of landfalling hurricanes: Tornadic and nontornadic cells and their local environments   Matthew D. Eastin, Univ. of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and M. C. Link, H. B. Anderson, and M. D. Parker   JP1.17 Multiscale variability of the internal structure of Hurricane Isabel during landfall   Renee Curry, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. I. Biggerstaff   JP1.18 Physical processes associated with surface wind field uncertainty in Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005): Use of present and future observational tools   Peter G. Black, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn, J. F. Gamache, R. D. Knabb, J. Carswell, P. S. Chang, S. Lorsolo, R. E. Hood, L. Jones, I. PopStefanija, and A. S. Goldstein   JP1.19 The overland intensification of Tropical Depression Erin: assessment and mesoscale observation   Derek S. Arndt, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Norman, OK; and G. D. McManus, B. G. Illston, J. B. Basara, D. B. Demko, and R. A. McPherson   JP1.20 2004 Hurricane Danielle Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasting Study Using the NCAR Advanced Research WRF Model   Nelsie A. Ramos, NOAA/Center for Atmospheric Sciences and Howard University, Washington, DC   JP1.21 Multimodel comparison study for hurricane case   Duanjun Lu, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; and R. Reddy and Q. L. Williams   JP1.22 WRF-NMM model case studies for the AMMA project during the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season   Jamese D. Sims, Howard University, Washington DC, and NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD   JP1.24 WRF forecasts/simulations of Tropical cyclones Debby and Helene during the SOP-3 NAMMA/AMMA field campaign   Gregory S. Jenkins, Howard Univ., Washington, DC; and S. Chiao and M. Cox JP1.23 PAPER WITHDRAWN     JP1.25 Sensitive experiments of changing vertical levels in numerical weather prediction model on tropical cyclone   LianTang Deng, China Meterological Administration, Beijing, China   JP1.26 Diagnosing Transport and Mixing in Unstable Barotropic Hurricane-like Vortices   Eric Hendricks, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. H. Schubert   JP1.27 Correlating Convective Bursts in Tropical Cyclones with Rapid Intensification using TRMM Precipitation Radar Reflectivity Profiles   Andrew B. Hagen, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and R. Rogers   JP1.28 Angular momentum and cloud torques in TCs: An airborne Doppler radar perspective   Stephen R. Guimond, COAPS/Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and P. D. Reasor and T. N. Krishnamurti   JP1.29 Determining surface winds from doppler radar data during hurricane passages over Florida   Philip D. Hayes, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and H. E. Fuelberg and R. E. Hart   JP1.30 Predicting hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico: Nexrad-in-space (NIS) and its potential impact   William E. Lewis, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli, E. A. Smith, S. Tanelli, and E. Im   JP1.31 Assimilation of Multi-Satellite Data in Improving Hurricane Intensity Forecasting   Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and X. Li   JP1.32 Superensemble forecasts of hurricane intensity from a suite of mesoscale models   Melanie Kramer, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti   JP1.33 Improving Hurricane Intensity Forecasting via Microphysical Parameterization Methods in a Mesoscale Model   Cerese Marie Albers, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and D. T. N. Krishnamurti   JP1.34 The experimental graphical tropical weather outlook   Jamie R. Rhome, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and D. P. Brown, J. L. Franklin, C. W. Landsea, C. Lauer, and C. Juckins JP1.35 PAPER WITHDRAWN     JP1.36 Wind speed-damage correlation in Hurricane Katrina   Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Dallas, TX JP1.37 Network analysis of U.S. hurricanes   Emily A. Fogarty, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner and T. H. Jagger   JP1.38 Evaluation of the surface wind fields of the GFDL coupled forecast for Hurricane Ivan using H*Wind Analysis   Isha M. Renta-López, Howard University, Washington, DC; and M. D. Powell and V. Morris   JP1.39 Parameterized wind gusts associated with a severe landfalling tropical cyclone   Hamish A. Ramsay, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. M. Leslie and M. L. M. Wong   JP1.40 The uncertainty in wave characteristics and tropical cyclogenesis prediction   Maria K. Flatau, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Peng and C. Reynolds   JP1.41 Eye & eyewall climatology derived from reconnaissance vortex reports and their use toward using an eyewall phase diagram to improve hurricane intensity forecasts   David Joseph Piech, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. Hart   JP1.42 Defining uncertainty in hurricane maximum surface wind estimation   Stephanie Ann Mullins, University of Louisiana - Monroe, Monroe, LA; and P. G. Black, C. S. Velden, M. D. Powell, E. W. Uhlhorn, T. L. Olander, A. Burton, and J. L. Beven   JP1.43 Improved Measures of Hurricane Hurricane Destructive Potential Based on Integrated Kinetic Energy   Mark D. Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL
	4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Monday 2008, 219 Session 4 Ensemble Forecasting Including Post Processing IV
Chairs: Tom Hamill, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; Tilmann Gneiting, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
4:00 PM 4.1 Storm of the Century? Insights from a massive ensemble forecast experiment   Peter S. Dailey, AIR-Worldwide, Boston, MA; and R. G. Fovell 4:15 PM 4.2 Algorithm and Sensitivity Analysis of Information-Theoretic Ensemble-Based Observation Targeting   Han-Lim Choi, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and J. P. How and J. Hansen 4:30 PM 4.3 Skill-based consolidation of multi-model ensembles using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and ensemble regression   Dan C. Collins, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD; and D. A. Unger and E. A. O'Lenic 4:45 PM 4.4 Accounting for wind energy forecast uncertainty   Eric P. Grimit, 3TIER North America, Seattle, WA; and C. Potter 5:00 PM 4.5 Bayesian Processor of Ensemble: Concept and Development   Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 5:15 PM 4.6 Conditional Dependence and Sufficient Statistics of an Ensemble   Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA
	5:30 PM-7:30 PM, Monday 2008, Exhibit Hall A Formal Opening of Exhibits with Reception (Cash Bar)
	7:00 PM-8:30 PM, Monday 2008, 219 Session 5 Special Session on Assessing Diversity among Geoscientists
Chair: Leslie M. Hartten, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO
7:00 PM 5.1 Distinguishing between signal and noise in diversity data   Roman Czujko, American Institute of Physics, College Park, MD 7:30 PM 5.2 Statistical analysis of survey data related to gender issues among academic AMS members   Donna F. Tucker, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS; and J. A. Winkler 8:00 PM Discussion
Tuesday, 22 January 2008
	8:30 AM-9:45 AM, Tuesday 2008, R02-R03 Joint Session 3 Tropical Cyclones and Probability/Statistics 1 (Joint between the Tropical Meteorology Special Symposium and the 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics)
Chair: Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO
8:30 AM J3.1 Global warming, U.S. hurricanes, and insured losses   James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. H. Jagger 9:00 AM J3.2 Changes in number and intensity of tropical cyclones   William M. Briggs, Weill Cornell Medical School, New York, NY 9:15 AM J3.3 Recurving tropical cyclones and downstream impacts as revealed by singular vectors   Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng and J. H. Chen 9:30 AM J3.4 Inter-comparison of Targeted Observation Guidances for Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific   Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and J. H. Chen, M. S. Peng, S. J. Majumdar, C. A. Reynolds, R. Buizza, M. Yamaguchi, S. Aberson, P. H. Lin, T. Nakazawa, K. H. Chou, and S. G. Chen
	9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Tuesday 2008, Exhibit Hall B Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Tue a.m.)
	11:00 AM-6:00 PM, Tuesday 2008, Exhibit Hall A Exhibits Open (Tuesday)
	11:00 AM-12:00 PM, Tuesday 2008, R02-R03 Joint Session 4 Tropical Cyclones and Probability/Statistics 2 (Joint between the Tropical Meteorology Special Symposium and the 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics)
CoChair: C.écile Penland, NOAA/ESRL/PSD3, Boulder, CO
11:00 AM J4.1 EVALUATING UNCERTAINTY IN NEAR-TERM ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY   Peter S. Dailey, AIR-Worldwide, Boston, MA; and G. Zuba, G. Ljung, and J. Guin 11:15 AM J4.2 Inherent uncertainties in hurricane prediction   Fuqing Zhang, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 11:30 AM J4.3 An information-theoretic approach to quantifying the uncertainty in operational tropical cyclone intensity predictions, with application to forecast verification   Jonathan R. Moskaitis, MIT, Cambridge, MA 11:45 AM J4.4 Operational tropical cyclone wind speed probability products from the National Hurricane Center   Richard D. Knabb, NOAA/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and M. Mainelli and M. DeMaria
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Tuesday 2008, La Louisiane Presidental Forum: Hurricane Katrina: Looking Back to Look Ahead (Cash & Carry) (Presidental Forum will run parallel to the other sessions throughout the afternoon)
	1:45 PM-3:00 PM, Tuesday 2008, 219 Session 6 Statistical Climatology
Chairs: C.écile Penland, NOAA/ESRL/PSD3, Boulder, CO; Elise V. Johnson, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL
1:45 PM 6.2 On the proper order of Markov chain for precipitation occurrence   J.T. Schoof, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL; and S. C. Pryor 2:00 PM 6.3 Regression-based methods for finding coupled patterns   Michael K. Tippett, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY; and T. DelSole, S. J. Mason, and A. G. Barnston 2:15 PM Paper 6.4 moved. New Paper Number 10.1A   2:30 PM 6.5 The Relation of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to Winter Tornado Outbreaks   Ashton Robinson Cook, NOAA/NWS SPC, Norman, OK; and J. T. Schaefer 2:45 PM 6.6 Balancing the Earth's radiation budget   G. Louis Smith, National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA
	3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Tuesday 2008, Exhibit Hall A Coffee Break in Exhibit Hall (tues p.m.)
	3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Tuesday 2008, 219 Session 7 Probability Forecasting
Cochairs: G. Louis Smith, National Institute of Aerospace, Hampton, VA; Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA
3:30 PM 7.1 Probabilistic Forecasts from the National Digital Forecast Database   Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and W. B. Evans 3:45 PM 7.2 The Role of Climatic Autocorrelation in Probabilistic Forecasting   Roman Krzysztofowicz, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and W. B. Evans 4:00 PM 7.3 Mining “Optimal” Conditions for Rapid Intensifications of Tropical Cyclones   Ruixin Yang, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and J. Tang and M. Kafatos 4:15 PM 7.4 Probabilistic guidance for hurricane storm surge   Arthur A. Taylor, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Glahn 7.5 GFS-Based MOS Opaque Sky Cover Guidance for the Contiguous United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico   Wei Yan, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD 4:30 PM 7.6 Probabilistic Hydrometeorological Forecasting in a Coupled Ensemble Framework   Jonathan M. Hobbs, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 4:45 PM 7.7 Developing a peak wind probability forecast tool for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station   Winifred C. Lambert, ENSCO, Inc., Cocoa Beach, FL; and D. A. Short and W. P. Roeder
Wednesday, 23 January 2008
	8:30 AM-10:00 AM, Wednesday 2008, 219 Joint Session 3 Bridging the Gap between Artificial Intelligence and Statistics in Applications to Environmental Science-I (Joint between the 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics and the Sixth Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science)
Chairs: Michael B. Richman, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; William M. Briggs, Weill Cornell Medical School, New York, NY
8:30 AM J3.1 Quantile Regression   Caren Marzban, University of Washington/APL, Seattle, WA 9:00 AM J3.2 Improving Bayesian neural network predictions of N. American seasonal climate by correcting for extrapolations   Aiming Wu, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh, A. J. Cannon, and A. Shabbar 9:15 AM J3.3 Neural Network Compound Parameterization with a Quality Control of Larger Errors for Robust and Fast Calculation of Physical Processes in Numerical Environmental Models   Vladimir M. Krasnopolsky, NCEP/NWS/NOAA (SAIC), Camp Springs, MD; and M. S. Fox-Rabinovitz, H. L. Tolman, and A. A. Belochitski 9:30 AM J3.4 An Artificial Neural Network to Forecast Thunderstorm Location: Performance Enhancement Attempts   Waylon G. Collins, NOAA/NWS, Corpus Christi, TX; and P. Tissot 9:45 AM J3.5 Statistical modeling of tornadic and non-tornadic severe weather outbreaks   Andrew E. Mercer, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. M. Shafer, L. M. Leslie, M. B. Richman, and C. A. Doswell
	10:00 AM-10:30 AM, Wednesday 2008 Coffee Break (Wed a.m.)
	10:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday 2008, 219 Joint Session 4 Bridging the Gap between Artificial Intelligence and Statistics in Applications to Environmental Science-II (Joint between the 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics and the Sixth Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications to Environmental Science)
Chairs: Michael B. Richman, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; William M. Briggs, Weill Cornell Medical School, New York, NY
10:30 AM J4.1 Data Requirements for Assimilating Concentration Data with a Genetic Algorithm   Sue Ellen Haupt, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and K. J. Long, G. Young, and A. Beyer-Lout 10:45 AM J4.2 A Cloud Detection Algorithm Applied to a Whole Sky Imager Instrument using Neural Networks   Andy Linfoot, Northrop Grumman IT/TASC, Chantilly, VA; and R. Alliss 11:00 AM J4.3 Development of an automated approach for identifying convective storm types using reflectivity and near-storm environment data   Steven A. Lack, NOAA/ESRL/GSD/CIRES Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and N. I. Fox 11:15 AM J4.4 A Bayesian framework for storm tracking using a hidden-state representation   Lucas Scharenbroich, University of California, Irvine, CA; and C. C. Wang, H. Stern, P. Smyth, and G. Magnusdottir 11:30 AM J4.5 Multivariate cluster analysis for automated identification of precipitating weather systems   Michael E. Baldwin, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN 11:45 AM J4.6 Automated Classification of Convective Areas from Radar Reflectivity Using Decision Trees   David John Gagne II, University of Oklahoma School of Meteorology, Norman, OK; and A. McGovern and J. Brotzge
	11:00 AM-6:30 PM, Wednesday 2008, Exhibit Hall A Exhibits Open (wednesday)
	12:00 PM-1:30 PM, Wednesday 2008 Lunch Break (Cash & Carry in Exhibit Hall) (Wednesday)
	1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Wednesday 2008, 219 Session 8 Forecast Evaluation I
Cochairs: Marina M. Timofeyeva, UCAR, Boulder, CO and NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO
1:30 PM 8.1 The value of information map: a tool for combining statistical and economic metrics of forecast quality   Arthur A. Small III, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 1:45 PM 8.2 Verification of The Weather Channel Probability of Precipitation Forecasts   J. Eric Bickel, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and S. D. Kim 2:00 PM 8.3 The accuracy of weather forecasts for Melbourne, Australia   Harvey Stern, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Vic., Australia 8.4 Another look at proper scoring rules for probability forecasts   Laurence J. Wilson, MSC, Dorval, QC, Canada
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday 2008, Exhibit Hall B Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (wednesday p.m.)
	2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday 2008, Exhibit Hall B Poster Session 1 Posters: Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
P1.1 Limitations of an observations-based system for ultra-short-term forecasts   Joby Hilliker, West Chester University, West Chester, PA; and G. Akasapu and G. S. Young   P1.2 Integration of aerosols and meteorological data sets into a neural network system   Pawan Gupta, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and S. A. Christopher   P1.3 Composites of tornadic and non-tornadic severe weather outbreaks   Andrew E. Mercer, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and C. M. Shafer, L. M. Leslie, M. B. Richman, and C. A. Doswell   P1.4 Developing the Local 3 Month Precipitation Outlook   Jenna C. Meyers, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT; and M. Timofeyeva, D. A. Unger, and A. C. Comrie   P1.5 Evaporation monthly time series stochastic generation in semiarid region of Northeast Brazil   Francisco de Assis Salviano de Sousa Sr., Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grande, Paraíba, Brazil; and A. M. T. D. Medeiros and B. B. D. Silva   P1.6 A numerical simulation study of a meso-beta scale heavy rainfall over Korea using the WRF model   Ji-Woo Lee, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea; and S. Y. Hong P1.7 PAPER WITHDRAWN     P1.8 The development of forecast confidence measures using NCEP ensembles   Robert Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and A. V. Durante and A. I. Watson   P1.9 Using Gumbel distribution to estimate return intervals for extreme wind events for Alaska and Hawaii   O. Francis-Chythlook, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK; and D. E. Atkinson
	4:00 PM-5:00 PM, Wednesday 2008, 219 Session 9 Forecast Evaluation II
Cochairs: Marina M. Timofeyeva, UCAR, Boulder, CO and NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO
4:00 PM 9.1 Intercomparison of spatial verification methods   D. Ahijevych, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Gilleland, B. Brown, E. Ebert, L. Holland, and C. Davis 4:15 PM 9.2 An assessment of forecast performance using Model Evaluation Tools (MET)   Lacey Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. E. Halley Gotway, B. G. Brown, D. A. Ahijevych, E. Gilleland, and L. B. Nance 4:30 PM 9.3 Applying a Procrustes shape analysis verification scheme to nowcast ensemble forecast members to determine accuracy of diagnosed convective mode   Neil I. Fox, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and S. A. Lack and A. Micheas 4:45 PM 9.4 Observing verification trends and applying a methodology to probabilistic precipitation forecasts at a National Weather Service forecast office   Sam Lashley, NOAA/NWSFO, Syracuse, IN; and A. Lammers, L. Fisher, R. Simpson, J. Taylor, S. Weisser, and J. Logsdon
	5:30 PM-6:30 PM, Wednesday 2008, Exhibit Hall A Reception in Exhibit Hall (Cash Bar) (Wednesday)
	7:00 PM-9:00 PM, Wednesday 2008 AMS Annual Awards Banquet at the Hilton Riverside Hotel
Thursday, 24 January 2008
	8:45 AM-9:45 AM, Thursday 2008, 219 Session 10 Climate Forecasting
Cochairs: Laurence J. Wilson, MSC, Dorval, QC Canada; Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
10.1 Improved statistical seasonal forecasts using extended training data   Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 8:45 AM 10.1A Looking for patterns in global sea surface temperatures and North American fire danger with positive matrix factorization   Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, Nevada; and J. R. Banta and B. L. Hall 9:00 AM 10.2 Robust nonlinear canonical correlation analysis for seasonal prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures   Alex J. Cannon, MSC, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. W. Hsieh 9:15 AM 10.3 Forecast error dynamics in a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction system   Malaquias Pena, SAIC and EMC/NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth 9:30 AM 10.4 A Probabilistic Climatic Model for Predicting Seasonal Rainfall in Paraiba State, Brazil   Bernardo Barbosa da Silva, Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grande, PB, Brazil; and F. D. A. S. Souza, V. D. P. R. Silva, and C. C. Braga
	9:45 AM-11:00 AM, Thursday 2008, Exhibit Hall B Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break (Thurs a.m.)
	11:00 AM-4:00 PM, Thursday 2008, Exhibit Hall A Exhibits Open (thurs)
	11:00 AM-12:00 PM, Thursday 2008, 219 Session 11 Statistical Downscaling
Chairs: Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL
11:00 AM 11.1 Downscaling forecasts of Indian monsoon rainfall using a nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model   Arthur M. Greene, Columbia University/IRI, Palisades, NY; and A. W. Robertson 11:15 AM 11.2 Statistical Downscaling Approach and its Application   Bo Cui, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and D. Hou 11:30 AM 11.3 Gridded MOS guidance in the national digital guidance database   Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and K. K. Gilbert, R. Crosgrove, D. Ruth, and K. Sheets 11:45 AM 11.4 Optimized merging of hourly precipitation with daily COOP precipitation data   Dongsoo Kim, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC
	12:15 PM-1:30 PM, Thursday 2008 Lunch Break (Cash & Carry in Exhibit Hall) (Thurs)
	1:30 PM-3:00 PM, Thursday 2008, 219 Session 12 Extreme Weather and Climate
Cochairs: Arthur M. Greene, Columbia University/IRI, Palisades, NY; Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, Nevada
1:30 PM 12.1 A preliminary survey of costly past weather events in southern California and a look at other potentially costly weather events   Ivory J. Small, NOAA/NWS, San Diego, CA 1:45 PM 12.2 Anticipating extreme hurricane losses   Thomas H. Jagger, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner 2:00 PM 12.3 Stochastic modeling of hurricane damage: Reanalysis of updated data   Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO 2:15 PM 12.4 Precipitation extremes in a ten-year high-resolution data set   George J. Huffman, NASA/GSFC and SSAI, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Adler, Y. Hong, D. T. Bolvin, E. J. Nelkin, and Y. Tian 2:30 PM 12.5 Toward predicting extremely active and break India summer monsoon   Qinghua Ding, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang 2:45 PM 12.6 Mid-Level Front Induced by Interaction of the Typhoon and Middle-Latitude Trough: A Case of Typhoon RUSA in August 2002   Eun-Hyuk Baek, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; and G. H. Lim
	3:00 PM-3:30 PM, Thursday 2008, Exhibit Hall A Coffee Break and Exhibit Hall Raffle (Thurs)

Browse the complete program of The 88th Annual Meeting (20-24 January 2008)