The total solar eclipse presented an opportunity for numerous probabilistic messaging graphics to be leveraged in National Weather Service (NWS) weather forecasts on social media, however, this did not happen without challenges. NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) faced unique challenges in communicating the forecast and providing Decision Support Services (DSS) to both partners and the public. Specifically, in the days leading up to the total solar eclipse, many NWS WFOs in the path of totality made social media posts using probabilistic messaging graphics to convey uncertainty in cloud cover forecasts. The graphics included a variety of color schemes, maps and images depicting a range of outcomes, percentiles, or probabilities of exceedance to convey the best and worst case cloud cover forecast scenarios. Upon examining the use of these probabilistic messaging graphics and the public response, it is evident that probabilistic weather information caused confusion and became easily misconstrued on social media.
In a world where social media is being used by millions of people on a daily basis to access weather forecasts, probabilistic weather information needs to be utilized and presented in a way that NWS partners and the public can easily grasp. With that in mind, this presentation will evaluate the use of probabilistic messaging on NWS WFOs social media posts leading up to the April 8th, 2024 total solar eclipse and demonstrate best practices for disseminating probabilistic weather information on social media. Furthermore, this presentation will offer DSS messaging strategies on how lessons learned from using probabilistic messaging during the total solar eclipse can be applied to future weather events.
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