Specialized Probabilistic Mountain Weather Forecasts as an Embodiment of the Modernized Forecast Operations Concept (MFOC)

To continually adapt and evolve the National Weather Service (NWS) has embraced the Modernized Forecast Operations Concept (MFOC) which involves fully leveraging probabilistic forecast information and working closely with core partners to understand their needs to deliver user-specific, actionable forecasts that provide value to their operational decision-making. Embodying this philosophy, the Salt Lake City Weather Forecast Office (WFO) has worked directly with partners to design and iteratively develop a next-generation, fully probabilistic mountain weather forecast used as a planning and decision-making tool for avalanche forecasts and avalanche mitigation. NWS Western Region Science and Technology Infusion Division has successfully coordinated the expansion of this effort across Western Region and has played a pivotal role in training WFOs and partners on its use.

Exemplifying the process that the MFOC outlines, input and feedback from core partners and NWS meteorologists helped identify and implement critical features, including retaining the ability for a meteorologist to interact with the forecast to shift or reshape the distribution of the probabilistic output based on known biases and unresolved processes in complex terrain. This novel briefing-style product efficiently communicates the range of potential outcomes for each forecast variable, including snow-water-equivalent and precipitation rate to snow ratio, freezing level, snowfall amount, as well as wind speed and peak gusts, while also making timing and trend information more readily apparent with simple visualizations. Robust statistics back each probabilistic field, leveraging the extensive amounts of ensemble forecast information now available through the National Blend of Models, various probabilistic snowfall forecasts, and an array of machine learning output.

This next-generation probabilistic mountain weather forecast serves as a template that aims to improve our level of service across the board, not just as a forecast but as a near-idealized example of innovation and development under the MFOC. With tools and services like the probabilistic mountain weather forecast, the NWS continues refining our ability to digest the ever-growing pool of weather forecasts and observations available to the field and provide concise, understandable, and actionable probabilistic forecasts that are invaluable to core partners, directly and indirectly benefiting the general public.