NWS Hazard Simplification: Exploring Protective Action Decisions to Alternative Prototype Warning Messages

Beginning in the fall of 2017, the National Weather Service (NWS) implemented a Hazard Simplification Project (Haz Simp) designed to enhance and simplify the nature of the Watch, Warning, and Advisory messages distributed by the NWS. Much of the impetus for change was based on feedback from meteorologists and emergency managers about confusing aspects of the warnings. Interestingly, research I reported at the 2019 AMS annual meeting found no significant differences in protective action decisions made to blizzard warnings between the newly reformatted Haz Simp warnings and the legacy warnings. Other recent research has examined the influence of potential changes to the warning headlines for severe weather watches and warnings, and a preliminary report released June 2018 found that alternative prototype headlines may be more effective than the legacy “watch” and “warning” headlines currently in use. One limitation of those initial findings, however, is that the cautionary information following the headlines was not based on actual NWS warnings. Given the desire to produce warnings that most effectively communicate risk and therefore increase the likelihood of taking protective action, it is important to identify “best practices.” The research reported here therefore empirically investigates the effectiveness of the legacy headline tornado watches and warnings, coupled with archived watches and warnings, compared to the same warning information paired with an alternative prototype headline. Participants read a series of tornado watches, later upgraded to warnings, in both the legacy and prototype versions. Respondents then rated their likelihood of engaging in a series of protective actions after reading each watch and warning. If accepted, I will report the results of the study and discuss their implications for the hazard simplification endeavor.