Prototyping Integrated Social-Physical Forecast Guidance Products for Severe Thunderstorm Hazards

Numerical weather prediction guidance has the potential to influence the meteorological information conveyed in short-term forecast products, and may additionally influence the manner in which, or to whom, those products are communicated. By combining numerical weather prediction outputs with social-spatial data, future guidance products can help identify not only where and when severe weather is most likely to occur, but who—or what—is most at risk from severe weather impacts.

We have prototyped integrated social-physical forecast guidance products for severe thunderstorm hazards (tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding) using probabilistic guidance produced by the experimental Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS). Integrated social-physical forecast guidance can provide weather forecasters, and other end-users, with information about the social and physical vulnerability of the geographies in predicted storm paths. Integrated information can additionally help decision support applications by showing risk managers only the meteorological conditions that present relevant risks to life and property. Finally, integrated guidance supports NWS forecasters in their role as communicators by providing them with the specific factors that make localities vulnerable to anticipated storms (e.g. high numbers of English language learners), which can be used to cater warning messaging and communication ahead of an impending weather emergency. Ultimately, integrated social-physical guidance products will better support forecasters in their mission to protect life and property.