The combined efforts of fusing social science into hazardous weather communication efforts to improve messaging to decision makers of all stripes, and an increased focus by public safety officials on risk assessment and risk management with natural hazards - most of them weather-related - one of three critical components of the threat and identification process, has reached a critical juncture on this 100th anniversary of the AMS.
Exponentially improved computing capabilities in the 21st Century have allowed the development of high resolution atmospheric forecast models whose multi-day accuracy is better than ever before. In addition, probabilistic forecasting of potentially hazardous weather elements is creating a baseline of threat communication, the first critical element of risk assessment. Similar computational improvements have allowed more accurate assessments of physical impact and vulnerability communication through measurement of natural and man-made infrastructure, from micro-scale geographic differences to infrastructural differences and changes to each.
Social science research applied to the potential impact on weather on the physical world to human behavior. Human behavior based on a diverse set of factors (demographics, culture, education, income, etc) informs the behavioral side of vulnerability.
The combination of knowledge, computing power, and an increased need for true risk assessment in a world with more extreme meteorological events and larger populations in harm's way has opened the door for researchers and developers to produce an increasing number of research studies and computer applications that can help all decision-makers to assess risk, from the granular (personal) level to the holistic (jurisdictional) level. Such studies and applications must be better connected to unify the process of risk communication in order to meet a shared goal of protecting life and property from potential weather disasters.
This session can become a springboard to begin and move forward a unified process, one that serves the entire Weather Enterprise in the shared goal of public safety and ultimately a reduction in weather-related disasters.
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