AMS Forum: Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather (Expanded View)

* - Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

Compact View of Conference

Monday, 15 January 2007
9:00 AM-10:15 AM, Monday
Plenary Session for the Presidential Forum (Presidential Forum will then run parallel to other sessions throughout the day)
10:45 AM-2:30 PM, Monday, 212A
Joint Session 7 Measurements and Modeling of Aerosols (Joint with Ninth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, Forum on Climate Change as Manifested by Changes in Weather, and 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change)
CoChair: Yang Zhang, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC
10:45 AMJ7.1Improvements to Aerosol Size Distributions in CMAQ  
Robert A. Elleman, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. S. Covert
11:00 AMJ7.2Simulating Secondary Organic Aerosol: Accuracy versus Computational Efficiency  
Ping Liu, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and Y. Zhang
J7.4Coupling of CB05 gas-phase chemical mechanism with MADRID aerosol module in WRF/Chem  
Jianping Huang, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and Y. Zhang, X. Hu, and K. L. Schere
11:15 AMJ7.3Size Distribution and Hygroscopic Properties of Agricultural Aerosols  extended abstract wrf recording
Naruki Hiranuma, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and S. D. Brooks, B. W. Auvermann, and R. Littleton
11:30 AMJ7.5Evaluation of the aerosol direct effect on a mesoscale simulation  
Steven E. Peckham, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado & NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and G. A. Grell, S. A. McKeen, J. D. Fast, R. Zaveri, and S. Chung
11:45 AMRecognition of NASA Student Travel Award Winners in the field of Atmospheric Chemistry  
12:00 PMLunch Break  
1:30 PMJ7.6Dust sandstorm dynamics analysis in Northern China by means of atmospheric, emission, dispersion modeling  
Massimiliano Pasqui, Institute of Biometeorology and National Research Council/IBIMET-CNR, Firenze, FI, Italy; and L. Bottai, C. Busillo, F. Calastrini, G. Gualtieri, F. Guarnieri, P. Scalas, and L. Torriano
J7.7Episodic particulate matter modeling in a semi-arid/arid area over the U.S./Mexico border: Incorporating a wind-blown dust emissions model into the MODELS-3/CMAQ system  extended abstract
Yu-Jin Choi, Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ; and H. J. S. Fernando
1:45 PMJ7.8The Instability associated with the Cross-Atlantic Transport of Saharan Dust and its Meteorological Implications  extended abstract wrf recording
Sun Wong, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX; and A. E. Dessler, P. R. Colarco, and A. Da Silva
2:00 PMJ7.9Comparison of AEROSE I and AEROSE II Surface Level Ozone Measurements and Ozonesonde Profiles within Saharan Dust and Biomass Burning Plumes  extended abstract wrf recording
Michelle D. Hawkins, Howard Univ., Washington, DC; and V. R. Morris, N. R. Nalli, and E. Joseph
2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday, Exhibit Hall C
Joint Poster Session 1 Climate change: in Hydrometeorological Variables, Detection & Attribution (Joint Between the 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 23rd Conference on IIPS, Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather, and the 5th Conference on Artificial Intelligence and its Applications to Environmental Sciences)
Chair: Aiguo Dai, NCAR, Boulder, CO
 JP1.1Spatial coherence of rainfall variations using the Oklahoma Mesonet  extended abstract
K. Margret Sturgis, Oklahoma Climatological Survey and Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. A. McPherson, M. B. Richman, and D. J. Karoly
 Poster Moved. New Paper Number 4A.11A  
 JP1.2AWhat can we (not?!) say about historical temperature changes from Radiosonde records?  
Peter Thorne, UK Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and M. McCarthy and H. Titchner
 JP1.3Blocking in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere: An update to include 2000 - 2006  
Joseph V. Clark, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and K. M. Mihalka and A. R. Lupo
 JP1.4GPS radio occultations of arctic temperature profiles  
Jaclyn Trzaska, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, NJ; and J. Francis and D. E. Veron
 JP1.5Identifying Connections Between Temperature Trends and Station Changes in the United States  
Rebecca A. Smith, Florida State Univ./COAPS, Tallahasssee, FL; and J. J. O'Brien
 JP1.6Comparison of glacier-inferred temperatures with observations and climate model simulations  
Diandong Ren, Univ. of Oklahoma/CAPS, Norman, OK; and D. J. Karoly
 JP1.7Assessing the trends of Southern Hemisphere transient wave activity in reanalyses and rawinsonde observations  
Yanjuan Guo, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and E. K. M. Chang
 JP1.8Comparative study on the land-cover change and global warming impacts on regional climate in Northeast Asia  extended abstract
Tomonori Sato, Univ. of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; and F. Kimura
 Poster JP1.9 has been moved. New paper number 2B.7A in the 23IIPS Program  
 JP1.10The search for ocean influences on midlatitude cyclones  
Richard E. Danielson, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
 JP1.11Regional climate change expected in Eastern/Central Europe  
Judit Bartholy, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and R. Pongracz, C. Torma, and A. Hunyady
 JP1.12Increased Precipitation is Climate Change imposed by Anthropogenic Activities  
Pankaj Kumar Sinha, Cochin University of Science & Technology, Cochin, India
 JP1.13Impact of land cover on the regional response to global warming  
Ming Cai, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and Y. K. Lim and E. Kalnay
 JP1.14Evidence in support of the climate change-Atlantic hurricane hypothesis  
James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL
 JP1.15Detected trends in extreme temperature and precipitation indices in the Central/Eastern European region  extended abstract
Rita Pongracz, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy
2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Monday, Exhibit Hall C
Joint Poster Session 2 Model Diagnostics and General Climate Variability (Joint with Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather and 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change)
 JP2.1Impact of precipitation characteristics on model's horizontal resolution and orography  
Akio Kitoh, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and O. Arakawa
 JP2.2Low-level cloud amount simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model with a 20-km grid size  
Shoji Kusunoki, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and T. Inoue and H. Kawai
 JP2.3Downscaled 1997/1998 Summer over East Asia using the Regional Spectral Model  extended abstract
E-Hyung Park, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, South Korea; and S. Y. Hong
 JP2.4Extreme hydrologic events from an ensemble of CCSM3 climate change simulations  
Marcia L. Branstetter, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and D. J. Erickson
 JP2.5Implementation of a Double Fourier Series (DFS) Dynamic Core in a Global Numerical Weather Prediction Model  extended abstract
Hoon Park, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, South Korea; and H. B. Cheong and S. Y. Hong
 JP2.6The Role of MJO in Ensemble Forecasts of the 1997/98 El Nińo in the POAMA1 System  
Li Shi, BMRC, Melbourne, Vic., Australia; and O. Alves, H. H. Hendon, and G. Wang
 JP2.8NCEP global ensemble based anomaly forecast  
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Toth
 JP2.9Assessment of the Severe Weather Environment in North America Simulated by Global Climate Models  extended abstract
Patrick T. Marsh, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. Brooks and D. J. Karoly
 JP2.10Assessment of global climate models performance from the characterization of duration, intensity and frequency of daily rainfall. Application to African Sahel  extended abstract
Amadou Idrissa Bokoye, EC/MSC/Ouranos Consortium, Inc., Montreal, QC, Canada; and P. Gachon, N. Gauthier, D. Parishkura, A. Cotnoir, G. Vigeant, and J. Milton
 JP2.11A successful story in predicting NAM events by the operational NCEP's GFS model  
Ming Cai, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and C. S. Shin and H. Van den Dool
 JP2.12Asian dust - pollution interactions inducing more solar radiation absorption: Results from ground-based sky radiation measurements  
B. J. Sohn, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; and T. Nakajima, H. W. Chun, and K. Aoki
 JP2.13Interaction between dust storms, precipitation and Gulf of California moisture surges in the Paso del Norte region  
Karina Apodaca, Howard University, Washington, DC; and D. V. R. Morris, A. Y. Lozano, J. Negrete, and D. R. M. Fitzgerald
 JP2.14Climatology of sub-monthly wave patterns associated with tropical cyclone tracks over the East Asian monsoon area during July-August season  
Ken-Chung Ko, National Kaohsiung Normal Univ., Kaohsiung, Taiwan; and H. H. Hsu
 JP2.15Recurving typhoons and eastern North Pacific predictability as revealed by singular vectors  
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA
 JP2.16The relationship between ENSO, PNA, and AO/NAO and extreme storminess, rainfall, and temperature variability during the Florida dry season: thoughts on predictability and attribution  extended abstract
Bartlett C. Hagemeyer, NOAA/NWS, Melbourne, FL
 JP2.17Atmospheric blocking and patterns of low-frequency variability arising from the breaking of upper level Rossby waves  extended abstract
T. J. Woollings, Univ. of Reading, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and B. J. Hoskins and M. Blackburn
 JP2.18Comparison of observed and modeled trends in annual extremes of temperature and precipitation  
Dmitry Kiktev, Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia, Moscow, Russia; and J. Caesar and L. V. Alexander
 JP2.19Understanding the climatology of small-scale patterns of orographic precipitation: progress from the Olympic Mountains  
Justin R. Minder, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. M. Anders, G. H. Roe, and D. Durran
 JP2.20Innovations in Spatial Analysis in the Bureau of Meteorology  
David Jones, BOM, Vic., 3001, Australia; and D. X. Wang, N. Plummer, D. I. Grant, and A. Rea
 JP2.21Links between West Africa monsoon variability and summer anomalies in the western Mediterranean  
Marina Baldi, IBIMET/CNR, Rome, Italy; and G. A. Dalu and M. Gaetani
 JP2.22On the mechanisms resulting in post-fire flash floods: a case study  
Lee Tryhorn, Monash University, Clayton, Vic., Australia; and A. Lynch and R. Abramson
 JP2.23Climate Variability and the Texas Fire Weather Season of 2005–2006: An Historic Perspective of a Statewide Disaster  extended abstract
Kurt M. Van Speybroeck, NOAA/NWS, Brownsville, TX; and A. R. Patrick and M. C. Oaks
 JP2.24Bioclimatological aspects of sudden cardiovascular death cases  
Rita Pongracz, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy, Z. Kis, K. Toro, G. Dunai, N. Szlavik, and E. Keller
 JP2.25Southern California upwelling: Is recent weakening a result of global warming?  extended abstract
Steve LaDochy, California State Univ., Los Angeles, CA; and P. Ramirez and W. C. Patzert
 JP2.26Abrupt Seasonal Migration of the ITCZ into the Summer Hemisphere  
Peng Xian, Columbia Univ. and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY; and R. L. Miller
Tuesday, 16 January 2007
11:00 AM-12:15 PM, Tuesday, Ballroom C2
Joint Panel Discussion 1 Summer 2006 Extreme Drought, Floods, Heat (Joint between the Impacts of 2006's Weather: Major Stories of the Year and the AMS Forum: Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather)
Panelists: Roger S. Pulwarty, (Drought in the Southwest) NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; David R. Vallee, (Floods in New England) NOAA/NWS, Taunton, MA; Timothy J. Brown, (Wildfires in the Plains) DRI, Reno, NV; Laurence S. Kalkstein, (The Heat Stress Index) Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE; David Runyan, (Summer Heat Wave) NOAA/NWS, Phoenix, AZ
Moderator: Randall M. Dole, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
11:00 AMDrought in the Southwest   wrf recording
Roger Pulwarty, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO
11:10 AMFloods in New England   wrf recording
David R. Vallee, NOAA/NWS, Taunton, MA
11:20 AMWildfires in the Plains   wrf recording
Timothy J. Brown, DRI, Reno, NV
11:30 AMThe Heat Stress Index   wrf recording
Laurence S. Kalkstein, Univ. of Delaware, Newark, DE
11:40 AMSummer Heat Wave  
David Runyan, NOAA/NWS, Phoenix, AZ
11:50 AMPanel Discussion  
1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Tuesday, 212A
Joint Session 8 Air Quality and Climate Change (Joint with Ninth Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry, Forum on Climate Change as Manifested by Changes in Weather, and 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change)
CoChair: Brian K. Lamb, Washington State Univ., Pullman, WA
1:30 PMJ8.1Assessment of Long-Term Impacts of Regional Climate Changes on Air Quality  
Yang Zhang, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and R. Leung
1:45 PMJ8.2Global climate change impacts on air quality in North America  extended abstract
Efthimios Tagaris, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and K. J. Liao, K. Manomaiphiboon, A. G. Russell, S. He, J. H. Woo, P. Amar, and L. R. Leung
2:00 PMJ8.3Impacts of Biogenic and Anthropogenic Emissions on Photochemical Oxidants over the Pearl River Delta Region, China  
Xuemei Wang, Sun Yat-sen Univ., Guangzhou, Guangdong, China; and L. Wenshi and Z. L. Yang
2:15 PMJ8.4A comparison of AURA/MLS CO measurement with 2 global chemical models  
Jonathan Jiang, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and L. Neary, J. McConnell, H. Su, and J. Kaminski
1:30 PM-5:30 PM, Tuesday, 214D
Session 1 Climate and Extreme Weather Events
Organizers: Randall M. Dole, NOAA-CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; Richard B. Rood, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
1:30 PM1.1A comparison of model produced climate extremes with observed and projected trends for the 20th and 21st centuries  extended abstract wrf recording
David R. Easterling, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and B. Gleason, K. E. Kunkel, and R. J. Stouffer
2:00 PM1.2Extremes and El Nino  
Gerald A. Meehl, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Tebaldi
2:30 PM1.3The ecological impacts of regional-scale drought-induced tree die-off: implications and challenges for atmospheric sciences  
David D. Breshears, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
3:00 PMCoffee Break  
3:30 PM1.4Simulating the synoptic climatology of extreme precipitation events under global warming  extended abstract wrf recording
William J. Gutowski Jr., Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and S. S. Willis, J. C. Patton, B. R. Schwedler, R. W. Arritt, and E. S. Takle
4:00 PM1.5Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change  
Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN; and J. Pal, R. J. Trapp, and F. Giorgi
4:15 PM1.6Occurrence of heavy precipitation and streamflow in Southern California  
Theresa M. Carpenter, Hydrologic Research Center/Univ. of California, San Diego, CA; and K. P. Georgakakos
4:30 PM1.7Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: Natural variability or climate trend?  
Greg Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. Webster
4:45 PM1.8Can we detect climate trends in extreme tropical cyclones?  
Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/TPC/NHC, Miami, FL; and B. A. Harper, K. Hoarau, and J. A. Knaff
5:00 PM1.9The water and energy budgets of hurricanes and implications for climate change  
Kevin E. Trenberth, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Fasullo
5:15 PM1.10Abrupt changes in rainfall during the twentieth century  
Gemma T. Narisma, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, Madison, WI; and R. Licker and J. Foley
Wednesday, 17 January 2007
8:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, 214A
Joint Session 3 Forecasting Water Cycle Components at Different Spatial and Temporal Scales (Joint with Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather and Climate Aspects of Hydrometeorology)
Organizers: Ana P. Barros, Duke Univ., Durham, NC; Christa Peters-Lidard, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
8:30 AMJ3.1Prediction of Elements of the Hydrologic Cycle at Climatic Time Scale: Observations and Prospects (INVITED)  
Upmanu Lall, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, New York, NY
9:00 AMJ3.2Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Spatio-Temporal Downscaling of Seasonal Climate to Daily Weather Forecasts  
Abedalrazq F. Khalil, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and H. H. Kwon and U. Lall
9:15 AMJ3.3Assessment of dynamic downscaling of the continental U.S. regional climate using the Eta/SSiB Regional Climate Model  
Yongkang Xue, University of California, Los Angeles, CA; and R. Vasic, Z. Janjic, F. Mesinger, and K. Mitchell
9:30 AMJ3.4Climatic aspects of hydrometeorology and water resources – the role of drought (INVITED)  
Dennis P. Lettenmaier, University of Washington, Seattle, WA
10:00 AMCoffee Break  
10:30 AMJ3.5When model results and observations disagree . . .  
Andrew A. Lacis, NASA/GISS, New York, NY
10:45 AMJ3.6Extreme Floods in Urban Watersheds (INVITED)  
James A. Smith, Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ
11:15 AMJ3.7Cool season heavy rainfall events over west central Florida  extended abstract wrf recording
Charles H. Paxton, NOAA/NWSFO, Ruskin, FL; and A. Reynes and J. C. McMichael
11:30 AMJ3.8An Examination of Central Gulf Coast Rainfall Quantities to Characterize the Hydrologic Impacts of Gulf of Mexico Tropical Systems  
Suzanne Van Cooten, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK
11:45 AMJ3.9Effect of Mean Midtropospheric Winds on Monthly Precipitation Anomolies in the Central Rocky Mountain Region  
Donna F. Tucker, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS
8:30 AM-12:00 PM, Wednesday, 214D
Session 2 Linking Weather and Climate
Organizers: Randall M. Dole, NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO; Richard B. Rood, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
8:30 AM2.1Weather - Climate and Subseasonal Forecasting  
Klaus M. Weickmann, NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and E. Berry
9:00 AM2.2Tropical cyclones, continental closed anticyclones and organized mesoscale systems as important links between high-impact weather and seasonal climate  
Lance Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY
9:30 AM2.3The Impact of Large-Scale Climate Variability on Weather  
Siegfried D. Schubert, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, MD; and M. Suarez, P. Pegion, Y. Chang, and J. Bacmeister
10:00 AMCoffee Break  
10:30 AM2.4Coupling of water vapor convergence, clouds, precipitation and land-surface processes in the climate over land  extended abstract wrf recording
Alan K. Betts, Atmospheric Research, Pittsford, VT
11:00 AM2.5From Cloud Organization to Climate Sensitivity—The Cloud Object Approach  extended abstract wrf recording
Kuan-Man Xu, NASA/LRC, Hampton, VA; and B. A. Wielicki and T. Wong
11:30 AM2.6Predictability and Forecast Skill of the Madden-Julian Oscillation  
Duane Edward Waliser, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and J. L. Li, S. D. Schubert, B. P. Kirtman, H. L. Pan, and A. Vintzileos
11:45 AM2.7A unified approach to weather, climate, and earth-system prediction for the 21st century   wrf recording
Melvyn A. Shapiro, NOAA/ERL/ETL, Boulder, CO
1:30 PM-5:15 PM, Wednesday, 214A
Session 3 THORPEX Special Session: Impacts of Processes over the Tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans on Mid-Latitude Weather and Predictability
1:30 PM3.1US THORPEX: Science, Structure, and Activities  
Jim Hansen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and L. Bosart
1:45 PM3.2International Prospective on Research Plans for the Tropical Western Pacific  
Gilbert Brunet, MSC, Dorval, PQ, Canada
2:15 PM3.3Interactions of middle latitude troughs and tropical disturbances on 4-6 week time scales  extended abstract wrf recording
John E. Molinari, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Vollaro
2:30 PM3.4The influence of the MJO on Midlatitude statistical predictability  
Richard Kleeman, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York, NY; and M. Kadota
2:45 PM3.5Extratropical Forecast Errors Associated with Tropical Heating Anomalies  
Joshua P. Hacker, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Hakim
3:00 PMCoffee Break  
3:30 PM3.6Analysis of ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone structure through extratropical transition  extended abstract wrf recording
Jenni L. Evans, Penn State Univ, University Park, PA; and D. Veren
4:00 PM3.7Research Issues on Tropical Convection and Two-way Interaction with the Large-scale Flow  
Chidong Zhang, University of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. B. Parsons, J. Tribbia, and M. Moncrieff
4:30 PM3.8A Mass Circulation Paradigm for the Annular Mode Variability  
Ming Cai, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and R. -. C. Ren
4:45 PM3.9Bridging the gap between weather and climate  
Greg Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Hurrell and Y. H. Kuo
5:00 PM3.10Quantifying dynamical predictability by time-dependent exponent curves: the technique of pseudo-ensembles  
Wen-Wen Tung, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and J. Gao and J. Hu
5:15 PM3.11Linking weather and climate forecasting  
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD
1:30 PM-2:30 PM, Wednesday, 214D
Session 4 Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change
Organizers: Randall M. Dole, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; Richard B. Rood, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
1:30 PM4.1Simulation of ocean circulation and heat content changes attributable to increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols  
Thomas L. Delworth, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ
2:00 PM4.2Attributing regional climate variations to tropical SST changes  
Prashant Sardeshmukh, NOAA/ESRL/PSD, CDC/CIRES, Boulder, CO
2:30 PM-4:00 PM, Wednesday, Exhibit Hall C
Joint Poster Session 4 Joint Poster: Climate & Extremes, Linking Weather and Climate (Joint with Second Symposium on Policy and Socio-economic Research, Symposium on Connections Between Mesoscale Processes and Climate Variability, 19th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, and Climate Change Manifested by Changes in Weather)
 JP4.1An examination of the relationship between North Atlantic tropical storm activity and sea surface temperature using time series modeling  
Jose Maliekal, SUNY, Brockport, NY
 JP4.2Implications of enhanced persistence of atmospheric circulation over Europe for the occurrence and severity of temperature extremes  
Jan Kysely, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Prague, Czech Republic
 JP4.3Hydrological variability and trends in global reanalyses  extended abstract
Junye Chen, Univ. of Maryland/ESSIC & NASA/GSFC/GMAO, Greenbelt, MD; and M. G. Bosilovich
 JP4.4An investigation of ENSO-related parameters used to predict Australian tropical cyclone activity  
Hamish A. Ramsay, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS, Norman, OK; and K. H. Goebbert, M. Leplastrier, and L. M. Leslie
 Poster JP4.5 has been moved. New Paper number 2B.1A  
 JP4.6The relationship between actual and potential intensities of tropical cyclones on an interannual time scale  
Allison A. Wing, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY; and A. H. Sobel and S. J. Camargo
 JP4.7Observations and predictability of tropical cyclones in the Southwest Pacific Ocean  
Kevin H. Goebbert, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and H. A. Ramsay, L. M. Leslie, and M. Leplastrier
 JP4.8Impact of ENSO, NAO, and PDO on monthly extreme temperature and precipitation  
J. Brolley, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. O'Brien
 JP4.9Quantifying the influence of environmental conditions on the effect of winter wheat  extended abstract
Cynthia A. Whittier, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. A. McPherson
 JP4.10Trends in Australia's climate means and extremes: a global context  
Lisa V. Alexander, Monash Univ., Clayton, Vic., Australia; and N. Nicholls, A. Lynch, P. Hope, D. A. Collins, and B. Trewin
 JP4.11Utilizing the statistical downscaling model to project weather extremes - a Canadian example  
Gary S. Lines, EC, Dartmouth, NS, Canada; and L. Titus
 JP4.12A generalized linear modeling approach to stochastic weather generators  
Richard W. Katz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. M. Furrer
 JP4.13Understanding the local and regional impacts of large wind farms  
Amanda S. Adams, Univ. of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada; and D. W. Keith
 JP4.14Western Arctic storm surge and extreme cyclones: a factorial analysis of fifty years of flooding  
Amanda H. Lynch, Monash Univ., Clayton, Vic., Australia; and L. R. Lestak, P. Uotila, E. N. Cassano, and L. Xie
 JP4.15Weather-Climate Linkage Leading to the 24-29 June 2006 Excessive East Coast Rainfall  extended abstract
Edward Berry, NOAA, Dodge City, KS; and K. M. Weickmann
 JP4.16Trends towards wetter hurricane basins  
J. Marshall Shepherd, Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA; and T. L. Mote
 JP4.17Tornado climatology and predictability by ENSO phase in the North Central U.S.: A compositing study  extended abstract
Barbara E. Mayes, NOAA/NWS WFO Quad Cities IA/IL, Davenport, IA; and C. Cogil, G. Lussky, and R. Ryrholm
 JP4.18The "Perfect Storms" of 1991: An intraseasonal example of a link between weather and climate  
Jason M. Cordeira, Univ. of Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart
 JP4.19The Impact of Local and Global Climate Variation/Change on Extreme Weather Events in the South Central Texas  
Xianwei Wang Sr., The University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, TX; and H. Xie and H. Sharif
 JP4.20Severe convective storms in past and future climates using a scale-spanning, multiple-model approach  
Robert J. Trapp, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and B. A. Halvorson, N. S. Diffenbaugh, and M. E. Baldwin
 JP4.21Predicting extreme hurricane winds in the United States  
Thomas H. Jagger, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner
 JP4.22Interactions between flood management decisions and scientific uncertainty about the climatological risk of extreme flooding  
Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and O. Wilhelmi, M. Downton, and E. Gruntfest
 JP4.23Influence of Climate Model Cloud and Convection Parameter Uncertainties on Present and Future Simulated Precipitation Extremes  
Yi Deng, Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX; and C. Jackson
 JP4.24Impacts of recurving West Pacific tropical cyclones on extratropical predictability in the Northern Hemisphere  
Heather M. Archambault, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser and L. Bosart
 JP4.25Identifying patterns and trends in severe storm environments using re-analysis data.  
Matthew J. Pocernich, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Gilleland, H. Brooks, and B. Brown
 JP4.26ENSO and Global Daily to 3-Hourly Precipitation Extremes  
Scott Curtis, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC; and S. Wuensch and R. F. Adler
 JP4.27Bridging the gap between weather and climate forecasting: Research priorities for intra-seasonal prediction  extended abstract
Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and M. Pena and A. Vintzileos
 JP4.28Relation between subseasonal and interannual variability of Indian monsoon and potential for seasonal predictability in a coupled GCM  extended abstract
Deepthi Achuthavarier, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and V. Krishnamurthy
4:00 PM-5:30 PM, Wednesday, 214D
Session 5 Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change II
Organizers: Randall M. Dole, NOAA/CIRES/CDC, Boulder, CO; Richard B. Rood, Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
4:00 PM5.1Can regional surface warming trends be attributed to anthropogenic climate change??  
David J. Karoly, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK
4:30 PM5.2Assessment of climate variability and change in the New York Metropolitan Region  
Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA/GISS, New York, NY
5:00 PM5.3Detecting Trends in Tropical Rainfall Characteristics, 1979-2003  
William K. M. Lau, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
5.4Impact of a greener West Africa on the Mediterranean climate  
Marina Baldi, IBIMET - CNR, Rome, Italy; and G. A. Dalu and M. Segnalini
Thursday, 18 January 2007
1:30 PM-5:45 PM, Thursday, 214D
Session 6 Impacts of Aerosols on Weather and Climate
1:30 PM6.1Aerosol-Climate Research: The Kaufman-MODIS Era  
V. Ramanathan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, CA
2:00 PM6.2Wind and water supply reduction by aerosol particles  
Mark Z. Jacobson, Stanford University, Stanford, CA; and Y. J. Kaufman
2:15 PM6.3The impacts of aerosols on Asian summer monsoon rainfall and circulation  
Kyu-Myong Kim, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Greenbelt, MD; and W. K. M. Lau
2:30 PM6.4"Weekend effect" for precipitation over eastern U.S.: Evidence for midweek intensification by pollution and historical evolution   wrf recording
Thomas L. Bell, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and K. M. Kim, D. Rosenfeld, J. M. Yoo, M. I. Lee, and M. Hahnenberger
2:45 PM6.5Global aerosol climatology in the EOS satellite era: Sources, transport, and atmospheric effects using the MODIS satellite data and the GOCART global model  
Mian Chin, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, MD; and L. A. Remer, T. Diehl, and H. Yu
3:00 PMCoffee Break  
3:30 PM6.6MODIS aerosol observations used to constrain dust distributions and lifecycle in the NASA GEOS-5 model  
Peter R. Colarco, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and E. Nowottnick and A. Da Silva
3:45 PM6.7How 3D science can help to correctly interpret satellite data on aerosol-cloud interaction  
Alexander Marshak, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. Wen, T. Varnai, and R. F. Cahalan
4:00 PM6.8Possibilities and Limitations of Current-Generation Satellite Aerosol Passive Remote Sensing, and Hopes for the Future  
Ralph A. Kahn, JPL/Caltech, Pasadena, CA; and J. Martonchik, D. Diner, B. Gaitley, M. Garay, O. Kalashnikova, D. Nelson, K. Yau, and T. M. Team
4:15 PM6.9Urban Aerosol Impact on Surface Energy and Hydrologic Cycles  
Menglin Jin, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. M. Shepherd
4:30 PM6.10Stratocumulus sensitivity to aerosols and dynamics  extended abstract
Guillaume Sadler Mauger, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. R. Norris
4:45 PM6.11An aerosol climatology from MODIS observations and products  
Lorraine A. Remer, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Kleidman and Y. Kaufman
5:00 PM6.12Remote sensing of the aerosol-cloud boundary  
Jens Redemann, Bay Area Environmental Research Institute, Ventura, CA; and Q. Zhang, P. B. Russell, P. Pilewskie, J. Livingston, B. Schmid, L. A. Remer, and R. A. Kahn
5:15 PM6.13Aerosol retrievals using airborne lidar and MODIS measurements  extended abstract
Richard A. Ferrare, NASA/LaRC, Hampton, VA; and E. V. Browell, Y. Kaufman, J. F. Leon, M. Chin, C. Butler, V. G. Brackett, S. Burton, G. Chen, A. Clarke, P. B. Russell, J. Redemann, and L. A. Remer
5:30 PM6.14The Impact of Aerosols on the Color and Brightness of the Sun and Sky  extended abstract
Stanley David Gedzelman, The City College of New York, New York, NY

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