An Analysis of Climate Change's Impacts on Future Wind Energy Production in California

Future climate change is expected to affect the spatial and temporal distribution of surface wind speeds (SWS), with associated impacts on electricity generation from wind energy. California, in particular, is vulnerable to these changes in light of the recent surge in the production of and investment in wind-generated electricity in the state. This study uses the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program's (NARCCAP) downscaled climate model data to quantitatively and qualitatively estimate changes in SWS expected to occur in the mid-21st century at three Californian wind farm regions: Altamont Pass, San Gorgonio Pass, and Tehachapi Pass. We examined trends in SWS magnitude and frequency, looking at diurnal patterns, seasonal cycle, and long-term trends. Although all models predicted future changes, characteristics of these changes were not robust across the model projections. However, in July, when power demand peaks, diurnal SWS patterns show similar perturbations across all models, with maximum winds mid-century projected to occur 3-6 hours later in the day than under current climate. Whereas current SWS show diurnal maxima typically at 0-3 UTC (5:00 – 8:00 pm PDT), in the future maximum SWS at Altamont Pass and Tehachapi Pass may occur at 6-12 UTC (10:00 pm – 5:00 am PDT). This work highlights the value of publicly available meteorological data sets for historical and projected future climate to assess wind energy resource issues, and to support other energy analyses demanding state-of-the-art meteorological data.