Using long range forecasts to assess hydro potential

For meteorologists, weather and climate are always top of mind. From the time we arise each day, through the last moments before our eyes close for at least a few hours in the evening (or following morning), most of our thoughts are consumed trying to make some sense of the behavior of the atmosphere and the fluid layer enveloping the planet. Whether it be sea surface temperatures and their relationship to cyclogenesis in Asia, or the influence of wintertime snowpack on spring runoff and water availability for North American farmers, there is always something interesting to think about and to learn from. In addition, many of us in both the private and public sector try to take this knowledge one step further, and apply it to the benefit of society.

In this talk, I will discuss the long range weather forecast for 2011 in general terms, and then frame the discussion in terms of positive/negative potential for hydroelectric power generation. Comparisons to past years will be touched upon, but the focus will be on an examination of the trends, and how this will translate to the power market in 2011.