Tropical Cyclone Prediction Through Multiple Global-model Ensemble Forecast System
This study is focused on tropical cyclone track forecast based on the multiple-model super ensemble forecast system. We use three global ensemble forecast systems, which are being run in National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Canadian Meteorology Center (CMC) and European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). The global tropical cyclone track calculations with the bias-correction prediction data from the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS, including NCEP and CMC) are also combined in this super ensemble prediction system. The results show encouraging improvements for hurricane /typhoon track prediction through this multiple global-model ensemble forecast system.