Wednesday, 26 January 2011
Significant breakthroughs in weather surveillance radar technology typically require more than 20 years of research, development, and technology transfer time before becoming operational. Accordingly, NOAA is developing the Integrated Weather Radar Plan (IWRP), driven by the 2030 Vision of high-impact hydrometeorological service performance. The overarching 2030 Vision is to significantly improve severe and hazardous weather warnings based upon improved radar observations coupled with numerical model forecasts (Warn-on-Forecast) and not primarily on event detection (Warn-on-Detection), as is done today. Research indicates this goal is achievable through a combination of technologies including: advanced radars and boundary layer sensors that sample hazardous events on the time and space scales they occur; new adaptive data-model integration technology comprised of intelligent computing and ensembles of storm-scale numerical models; and, increased computing capacity commensurate with known rates of growth. Adaptive data-model integration refers to increasing model forecast accuracy by utilizing real-time adaptive observations of those areas most needed to reduce model error covariance. Benefits to other mission areas (e.g., aviation, hydrology, wind energy, air quality, etc.) are expected collaterally and directly as new requirements arise. The plan assumes operational use of storm-scale probabilistic models assimilating high-resolution radar and other observations, and greater sampling of the planetary boundary layer. The paper and poster will detail key aspects of the plan.
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