Regional climate modeling for Rhode Island and Shenzhen City, China: A model intercomparison program for optimizing coastal resource management decision making

The University of Rhode Island Regional Earth System Center and Tsinghua University have established a collaborative research program for assessing and comparing the impacts of a changing climate on the coastal waters of Rhode Island and Shenzhen City, including socioeconomic impacts associated with regional climate change. We first describe our objectives, then present preliminary results from the first phase of the program (regional ocean modeling of the natural environment as perturbed by climate change projections), and finally describe our plans for modeling and assessing socioeconomic impacts for informing regional resource management decisions. For modeling the natural environment of coastal Rhode Island we select the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) model driven by the IPCC AR4 projections for the New England region. Particular attention is directed towards the changes of regional coastal ocean stratification in both the Rhode Island Sound and Long Island Sound due to projected climate variability of the freshwater input from the Connecticut River. For Shenzhen City we select the MIT General Circulation Model (MITgcm) driven by the IPCC AR4 regional climate projections for modeling Shenzhen Bay with a focus on projected climate impacts of: 1) freshwater input from the Pearl River, and 2) monsoon wind and precipitation, on the coastal circulation. The socioeconomic modeling component of our program will take the form of a model intercomparison study of the impact of a changing climate on both Rhode Island and Shenzhen City and will be structured for optimizing decisions for the management of regional coastal resources, including water resources, as determined by projected climate change.