Comparison of climate downscaling methods and results for stakeholder-driven research in the urban Northeast U.S

As stakeholder engagement in climate change impacts and adaptation increases, there is a growing need for downscaled climate projections that map specific climate hazards to sector-specific impacts and potential adaptation strategies. Borrowing upon lessons learned through New York City's climate change adaptation process (involving 40 city and state agencies, regional planning associations, and private companies) and other stakeholder-driven projects around the globe, this presentation will compare how four different downscaling approaches may inform decision-making in the urban Northeast U.S. Potential advantages and disadvantages of each method will be described from a stakeholder perspective, and results for the region will be presented.

The four downscaling approaches are the delta method, in which long-term global climate model changes through time are projected onto higher-frequency observed station data, regional climate model simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), and two statistical downscaling methods (the Statistical Downscaling Model, SDSM, and the Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections, http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/).

The extent to which each downscaling technique lends itself to stakeholder-favored characteristics (such as inclusion of multiple GCM and emissions scenarios, emphasis on extreme events, and user-defined climate risk metrics) will be discussed.