Tuesday, 8 January 2013: 3:30 PM
Room 4ABC (Austin Convention Center)
Improvement in tropical cyclones' intensity prediction is an important ongoing effort. Cooling of the ocean by storm mixing reduces storm intensity by reducing the air-sea enthalpy flux. Here, we modify the widely used Sea Surface Temperature Potential Intensity (SST_PI) index by including information from the upper subsurface ocean to form a new Ocean Cooling Potential Intensity index, OC_PI. Applied to a 14-year (1998-2011) Western Pacific typhoon archive, the correlation coefficient between the predicted maximum intensity and the observed peak intensity increased from 0.08 to 0.31. For the sub group of slow-moving TCs that has the strongest interaction with subsurface ocean, r2 increases to 0.56. OC_PI thus contributes to the improvement on the existing PI through incorporation of ocean's subsurface information.
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